A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part II: Sectoral climate indices

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 30, С. 100377 - 100377

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2023

Climate indices are developed to determine climate impacts on different socioeconomic sectors, providing a comprehensive communication of complex information arising from change assessments. These may be used by decision-makers properly and timely implement adaptation measures in sectors human activity, such as agriculture crop selection, forest, coastal management, among others. Here, we present analysis estimated for Portugal, known hotspot. A multi-variable 13-member ensemble EURO-CORDEX Regional Model simulations is assess future projections indices, exploring three scenarios until 2100, considering emission scenarios, namely the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5. Aligned with warming drying projected conditions, an increase number summer days very hot expected become more frequent intense, impact over interior regions. Tropical nights common, affecting thermal comfort conditions threatening health. Although show overall reduction wet days, amount precipitation during short-time periods will leading intensification moderate/heavy rainfall. results corroborate that Portugal hotspot, calling efficient policymaking relevant authorities. Indeed, call urgent planning development safeguard critical Portuguese society, agriculture, forests,

Язык: Английский

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High-resolution downscaling of CMIP6 Earth system and global climate models using deep learning for Iberia

Geoscientific model development, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 17(1), С. 229 - 259

Опубликована: Янв. 12, 2024

Abstract. Deep learning (DL) methods have recently garnered attention from the climate change community for being an innovative approach to downscaling variables Earth system and global models (ESGCMs) with horizontal resolutions still too coarse represent regional- local-scale phenomena. In context of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), ESGCM simulations were conducted Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at ranging 0.70 3.75∘. Here, four convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures evaluated their ability downscale, a resolution 0.1∘, seven CMIP6 ESGCMs over Iberian Peninsula – known hotspot, due its increased vulnerability projected future warming drying conditions. The study is divided into three stages: (1) evaluating performance CNN in predicting mean, minimum, maximum temperatures, as well daily precipitation, trained using ERA5 data compared Iberia01 observational dataset; (2) further ensemble against Iberia01; (3) constructing multi-model CNN-based downscaled projections temperature precipitation 0.1∘ throughout 21st century under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Upon validation satisfactory evaluation, DL demonstrate overall agreement magnitude sign changes. Moreover, advantages high-resolution are evident, offering substantial added value representing regional Iberia. Notably, clear trend observed Iberia, consistent previous studies this area, increases 2 ∘C, depending scenario. Regarding robust decreases western southwestern particularly after 2040. These results may offer new tool providing information adaptation strategies based prior next European branch Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) experiments.

Язык: Английский

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The future of Iberian droughts: a deeper analysis based on multi-scenario and a multi-model ensemble approach

Natural Hazards, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 117(2), С. 2001 - 2028

Опубликована: Апрель 19, 2023

Abstract As a result of warming and precipitation deficits, the increasing shortage water resources, droughts have become one main drivers desertification, land degradation food insecurity with direct impacts on ecosystems society, especially in fragile communities. Over Iberian Peninsula, known climate change hotspot, occurrence varies intensity severity, being its assessment under present future conditions an important tool for adaptation measures. Here, first time, we comprehensive analysis different plausible evolutions throughout twenty-first century over Iberia monthly basis, featuring three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). A multi-variable, multi-model EURO-CORDEX weighted ensemble is used to assess drought using SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) SPEI Evapotranspiration Index). All indexes were computed by considering full period, from 1971 2000 merged 2011–2100 each RCP scenario. The results clearly show that Peninsula highly vulnerable change, indicating significant increase severity occurrences, even low-end RCP2.6 For RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios, increases are more pronounced enhanced century, 3 up 12 severe shorter timescales mean duration above 30 months longer accumulation periods. use all RCPs data pooled together multi-variable approach allows not only accurate robust projection but also ensures comparability among projections scenarios. evolution aspires assist new Portuguese national roadmap bridging sector challenges mitigation dynamic way.

Язык: Английский

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A physical climate storyline for the Hercules storm in Portugal: Extreme coastal flooding in southwestern Europe under a changing climate

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 971, С. 179050 - 179050

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

In the first days of 2014, exceptionally energetic swells associated to Hercules storm (also known as "Christina") produced one most devastating coastal events in Portugal, establishing new records long-term wave observations for area. Between January 6th and 7th, extreme flooding affected >30 municipalities along Portuguese coastlines, with buoys measuring maximum individual heights periods 14.91 m 28.10 s, respectively. The caused >16 million euros direct costs, due overtopping flooding, hundreds millions indirect ones, including businesses populations. Here, two physical climate storylines are built assess impacts a "Hercules" storm, at five key-locations coastline, happening by end 21st century, under influence SLR, changes climate, different shorelines overall morphology, yet, keeping same statistical representativeness observed 2014. storyline approach allows establishment clear connection 2014 event conceive future phenomena like Hercules, context changing fostering decision-making working backwards from specific vulnerabilities or decision points, integrating change data other factors address compound risks. Results reveal that Hercules-like projected become more severe, considering contribution SLR increases energy. Extreme is expected impact 2.21-2.92 km2 14 km analyzed 1.9 2.4× than resulting 3.2 6.5× number physically impacted buildings, densely urbanized stretches. As continuous erosion towards century reduce natural protection leaving populations exposed, currently employed mechanisms will require robust adaptation measures, strategically defined withstand long return periods.

Язык: Английский

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On the deep learning approach for improving the representation of urban climate: The Paris urban heat island and temperature extremes

Urban Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 56, С. 102039 - 102039

Опубликована: Июль 1, 2024

As cities encompass most of the global population, it is crucial to understand effects climate change in an urban context develop tailored adaptation and mitigation strategies. Physically-based numerical models are computationally demanding present scale limitations that complicate representation their on regional-to-local vice-versa. Therefore, often, methodologies (e.g. statistical downscaling) sought complement output for studies. Deep Learning (DL) a growing technology has become universal presence society scientific community, geosciences included, showing promising results all around. In this study, we applied DL models, namely Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), downscale land surface temperature (LST) predict 2-m maximum minimum temperatures (T2mmax T2mmin, respectively) over Paris between 2004 2022, compared with ERA5, recent atmospheric reanalysis European Centre Medium Range Weather Forecasts. Several experiments featuring different sets ERA5 predictors were used as input data models. Afterwards, quality representing heat island (UHI) was assessed. Our showed substantial improvements LST, T2m UHI downscaling (using small number predictors) comparison ERA5. Particularly, best-performing presented nighttime daytime SUHI biases (RMSE) below 0.80 °C 0.50 (2.8 2.3 °C), respectively. This study supports potential using technique help improve extremes historical period.

Язык: Английский

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The future of the Portuguese (SW Europe) most vulnerable coastal areas under climate change – Part I: Performance evaluation and shoreline evolution from a downscaled bias corrected wave climate ensemble

Ocean Engineering, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 302, С. 117661 - 117661

Опубликована: Апрель 4, 2024

Some of the most disruptive effects climate change are projected to be felt along coastlines. The combined future changes in water levels and wave coastal areas constitute one serious threats their sustainable evolution, compromising critical infrastructures, resources, ecosystems, communities. Understanding long-term remains challenging, however, due multivariate multi-time-and-space-scale nature. In this study, we propose an innovative methodology for a complete vulnerability assessment sandy low-lying areas, based on dynamic, ensemble-based projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). current Part I sea level rise (SLR) nearshore shoreline evolution assessed at five key-locations Portuguese coastline. Longshore sediment transport (LST) computed, sedimentary imbalances quantified. Overall, robust retreat up 300 m is projected, especially northern central with continued erosion driven mainly by imbalance SLR. decrease energy responsible slight alleviation trends, 6.33%, whereas increase northerly incoming waves expected lead northward beach rotations western Mainland Portugal. resulting loss 0.786 km2 dry land 2100 14 km analysed coastline, threaten several urban calling implementation adequate management adaptation plans, reduce impacts population, livelihood, ecosystems.

Язык: Английский

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How persistent and hazardous will extreme temperature events become in a warming Portugal?

Weather and Climate Extremes, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 41, С. 100600 - 100600

Опубликована: Июль 29, 2023

The impact of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere on temperature distributions is felt not only mean values but primarily extremes. are becoming slightly flattened and more broadened towards higher values, leading to a decrease extreme cold events importantly considerable increase frequency intensity hot events. These changes no longer simple projections already occurring. It thus imperative an assessment projected even under reduced emissions scenarios for entire 21st century. In this study, multi-variable ensemble based 13 EURO-CORDEX high-resolution simulations at 0.11° resolution, was used analyse heat as well Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) such extremes between March November over Portugal. have common three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5 data covering historical period (1971–2000) future consecutive periods, 2011–2040, 2041–2070 2071–2 100. results show that severe heatwaves will develop beyond extended summer months all scenarios. Even high mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), number than double number, relative record. emission (RCP8.5), sharp severity areal extension end analysis stress indicates most induce occurrences morbidity mortality rates simply due shear rise affected population increased occurrence.

Язык: Английский

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The future of extreme meteorological fire danger under climate change scenarios for Iberia

Weather and Climate Extremes, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 42, С. 100623 - 100623

Опубликована: Окт. 26, 2023

Wildfires are disturbances that occur in ecosystems, both naturally and derived from anthropogenic factors, often caused by extreme meteorological conditions, have recurrently destructive impacts on forests throughout the world. The complex nature of interactions between wildfires, their dynamics, human interference a climate change perspective has motivated growing number researchers to address this topic. fire weather index (FWI) been extensively used analyze link danger its local regional characteristics contributing severity these events, as well real-time operational monitoring at national international levels. Recently, new improved includes effect atmospheric instability developed, so-called FWIe. presence atmosphere may be boost more energetic such June 2017 event central Portugal, making it an important asset risk management. Here, comprehensive examination future Iberian Peninsula was performed. Additionally, comparative analysis FWI FWIe pursued context change. We computed using multi-model ensemble composed 13 Euro-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations forced different global models. historical period (1971–2000) three projected periods 30 years (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2 100), under emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were considered. When assessing modelled FWIe, results show summer values tend substantially increase when assuming benchmark, with expected extension and, lower magnitude, September. north-western region Iberia, including north Portugal north-western-to-central Spain regions larger increases future, which critical since fire-prone vegetation. This work also points large differences projections among scenarios, calling for distinct set adaptation needs should timely prepared stakeholders authorities.

Язык: Английский

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Pluvial flood adaptation using nature-based solutions: An integrated biophysical-economic assessment

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 902, С. 166202 - 166202

Опубликована: Авг. 9, 2023

Globally, flood events are considered the costliest natural hazard. Changes in precipitation patterns and large areas of impervious surfaces urban environments increasing sensitivity these systems to runoff production. At same time, projected global sea-level rise may further increase frequency compound flooding due simultaneous storm surge, pluvial that cause vast socio-economic ecological impacts coastal cities. In this context, over last decade, role Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) has been recognised support climate change adaptation by addressing ideas multi-functionality, non-linearity heterogeneity design. Thus, awareness about NBS benefits increases willingness accept solutions. However, empirical evidence effectiveness at catchment scale is still subject debate. This study develops a spatial biophysical-economic framework allows for integrated assessment risk mitigation impacts, costs face change, combining Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, benefit transfer methods Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. Specifically, InVEST Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model was used assess biophysical on risk, benefit-transfer were evaluate economic implications such solutions, GIS integrate map implications. For case lagoon city Aveiro (Portugal), scenarios green roofs bioswales under current future conditions assessed. The main findings show would save 32 % damages buildings infrastructures every year, while help only 0.1 %. Moreover, implementation provides larger scenario (representative concentration pathway - RCP 4.5). confirm extent which knowledge partial uncertain, thus requiring constant progress through an evolutive decision making process planning.

Язык: Английский

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A probabilistic approach to combine sea level rise, tide, and storm surge into representative return periods of extreme total water levels: application to the Portuguese coastal areas

Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 313, С. 109060 - 109060

Опубликована: Ноя. 22, 2024

Язык: Английский

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