Assessing the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Keteleeria evelyniana Mast. in southwest China: a Maxent modeling approach

Frontiers in Plant Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16

Опубликована: Апрель 25, 2025

Keteleeria evelyniana Mast., which is widespread in southwestern China, valuable for studying under different future climate scenarios to assess potential distribution shifts response warming. Understanding these changes can provide theoretical support species conservation, rational utilization, ecological restoration, and management of K. habitats. The Maxent model was optimized using the package ENMeval adjust Regularization Multiplier (RM) Feature Class Combinations (FC) parameters. Utilizing 221 effective points 33 environmental variables, current predicted, with key variables analyzed. FC = LQ RM 0.5, demonstrated low complexity, minimal overfitting, high accuracy, achieving an AUC value 0.946 a standard deviation 0.011. Under conditions, 68% suitable areas were focused on Yunnan Province, additional western Guizhou, Sichuan, southeastern Xizang Autonomous Region. In various scenarios, gradually decreased, maximum reduction 33%. Simultaneously, centroids are expected migrate northward by up km. Temperature dominant factor affecting its (77.8%), whereas effects soil altitude significant. This study clarified evelyniana, projected identified main factors distribution. These findings offer sustainable use evelyniana.

Язык: Английский

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Predicting the spread of invasive Imperata cylindrica under climate change: A global risk assessment and future distribution scenarios

PLoS ONE, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 20(5), С. e0321027 - e0321027

Опубликована: Май 9, 2025

Invasive plant species, such as Imperata cylindrica (cogongrass), threaten native ecosystems, natural resources, and lands worldwide. With climate change, the risk of invasions may increase more favorable conditions enable non-native species to spread into new areas. This study employs CLIMEX model predict potential distribution I. under current future scenarios, SRES A2 scenario. A comprehensive dataset comprising 6,414 occurrence records was used simulate species’ ecological niche based on key climatic parameters, including temperature soil moisture. Our results indicate that than 16% global land surface is currently highly suitable for (Ecoclimatic Index ≥ 30), with significant areas identified in Central America, Africa, Australia. Future projections scenario suggest an expansion habitats by 2050, 2080, 2100, particularly regions southern Argentina parts North while Africa experience a decrease suitability due rising temperatures. Sensitivity analysis revealed temperature-related parameters (DV0, DV1, DV2, DV3) are most influential determining distribution, highlighting critical role driving invasive . These findings provide valuable insights risks associated invasions.

Язык: Английский

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Assessing the potential global distribution of Monochamus sutor (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under the influence of climate change and human activities based on Maximum Entropy model

Journal of Economic Entomology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Май 11, 2025

Abstract Monochamus sutor, an important phytophagous pest, is a known vector insect of Bursaphelenchus mucronatus in addition to feeding directly on trees. Although B. causes relatively minor damage European and Asian forests, its threat coniferous forests similar that xylophilus. Given xylophilus evolved into destructive pathogen after introduction Asia, may also pose potential North American forests. Therefore, we assessed the global distributions areas M. sutor their relative dynamics under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) current (i. considering only bioclimatic factors; ii. including anthropogenic factors) future (2050s 2070s) using optimized Maximum Entropy ecological niche model. The mean area curve value model was greater than 0.86 true skill statistic 0.79. Potentially suitable habitat for driven by combination temperature (Bio1 Bio2), precipitation (Bio14, Bio15, Bio18), human activities. In period, are concentrated Europe, East America, smaller presence disturbance factors alone. At same time, scenarios, range will always expand more contract, with projected increase 1,329.02 1,798.23 × 104 km2 compared time especially spread toward Canada United States America America. present study provides insights risks which help guide decision-making pest control as well forest conservation.

Язык: Английский

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Invasive alien plants in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (China): Current state and future predictions

Ecological Indicators, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 166, С. 112488 - 112488

Опубликована: Авг. 16, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Response to Climate Change and GAP Analysis of Thuja koraiensis Nakai

Plants, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 13(13), С. 1750 - 1750

Опубликована: Июнь 25, 2024

Due to global warming and increased human activity, the wild population of Thuja koraiensis Nakai (T. koraiensis) has dropped, placing it in danger. An understanding response T. climate change determination priority conservation areas are tremendously critical for proper conservation. Using sixty-nine distribution points seven environmental factors, Maxent model was used predict potentially suitable spatial variation patterns Marxan planning evaluate gap areas. Research shows that dominant factors affecting included elevation, precipitation driest month, isothermality wettest quarter. Under current climatic conditions, highly mainly distributed Changbai Mountains within Samjiyon County Baishan City, Hamgyong western part Hamgyong-Bukto Province, T’aeback-Sanmaek Gangwon-do, Kumgangsan Special Administrative Region Kangwon-do. future show a decreasing trend, area will be reduced higher elevations, may become refuge. Based on GAP analysis, 69.69% located outside nature reserve, these primarily southern

Язык: Английский

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The combined effects of climate, soil, and rhizospheric microorganisms determine the quality and suitable production zones of Stellaria dichotoma L. var. lanceolata Bge. in China

Chemical and Biological Technologies in Agriculture, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 11(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 18, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Global climate change and its impact on the distribution and efficacy of Bacillus thuringiensis as a biopesticide

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 958, С. 178091 - 178091

Опубликована: Дек. 20, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Modeling human transmissibility via nighttime light remote sensing for Hyphantria cunea propagation pattern prediction

Ecological Informatics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 80, С. 102522 - 102522

Опубликована: Фев. 13, 2024

Human mobility and goods transportation are essential processes that lead to pest propagation, accurately characterizing spatial transmissibility has always been a popular research topic. Therefore, we propose modeling quantification method based on nighttime light remote sensing reflect human integrate this with other variables map the spreading risk. First, residential areas in China extracted from annual NPP/VIIRS datasets. Then, index is established GIS cost-distance analysis impedance parameters related geographical land use features. Consequently, propagation risk of human-induced Hyphantria cuneas assessed binary logistic model. The results show obtained images can be used assess accessibility continuous way field. When cunea prediction was adopted, accuracy range improved by nearly 5% for occurrence 3.3% overall, significant difference observed Wilcoxon signed-rank test compared effect anthropogenic factors quantified considering basic geographic information infrastructure In addition, all model R2 values increased at different levels. effectively characterize pattern impacts displays high prediction. Understanding mechanism pests important provides reference achieving early warnings regarding spreading, performing potential host analyses infection caused unknown pathogens, ecological interference.

Язык: Английский

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Predicting the Potential Risk Area of the Invasive Plant Galinsoga parviflora in Tibet Using the MaxEnt Model

Sustainability, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(11), С. 4689 - 4689

Опубликована: Май 31, 2024

The Tibetan plateau, with complex and diverse ecosystems, is an important ecological security barrier to China. However, climate change the spread of invasive plant species have imperiled once pristine ecosystem region. To prevent further control plants, it delineate potential distribution patterns alien plants at regional scale across Tibet understand their responses change. Galinsoga parviflora Cav., a member family Asteraceae, annual herbaceous distributed globally as weed possesses characteristics that make highly invasive, such strong ability proliferate disperse. also known allelopathic effect. There has been no report on spatial G. in Tibet. Using field survey data, we investigated risk invasion its impacts safety We employed MaxEnt model using R language SPSS software optimize select parameters data. acquired various environmental variables along current future scenarios (two carbon emission scenarios, SSP126 SSP585, for years 2050 2090) predict geographic areas can invade. accurately predicted average AUC 0.985. most suitable conditions which performed best included mean temperature 6.2–10.0 °C elevation range 2672–3744 m above sea level. Our results indicate low precipitation during coldest quarter year (mean −2–3 °C) was variable predicting distribution. showed hardly found when exceeded 155 mm. river valleys central, southeastern, eastern With (i.e., SSP126, SSP585), habitats will likely shift northwest regions from southeast. Particularly under highest scenario area expands more rapidly, center shifts regions. These findings provide useful information about changes Tibet, crucial comprehensive proactive management

Язык: Английский

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Combining remote sensing, habitat suitability models and cellular automata to model the spread of the invasive shrub Ulex europaeus

Biological Invasions, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 25(12), С. 3711 - 3736

Опубликована: Авг. 12, 2023

Abstract Modeling the past or future spread patterns of invasive plant species is challenging and in an ideal case requires multi-temporal spatially explicit data on occurrences target as well information habitat suitability areas at risk being invaded. Most studies either focus modeling a given area for try to model spreading behavior based temporally limited occurrence some environmental variables. Here we suggest workflow that combines maps, from multiple time steps collected remote sensing data, cellular automata models first reconstruct shrub Ulex europaeus island Chiloé Chile then make predictions species. First, U. are derived four between 1988 2020 using supervised classification. The resulting combined with native range GBIF database selected variables derive maps Maxent. Then, calibrated estimates steps, map, additional geo-layer containing about soils human infrastructure. Finally, set used predict potential years 2070 2100 climate scenarios. All individual where reference was available led sufficient results (supervised classifications Overall Accuracy > 0.97; Maxent AUC 0.85; Balanced 0.91) spatial matched experiences during field surveys. Our continuous expansion maximal , particularly Eastern Northern part Island. We deem suggested be good solution combine static information—representing constraints—with dynamic representing actual obtained understanding identified have high invasion probability can support land managers plan prevention mitigation measures.

Язык: Английский

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