Simulating the changes of the habitats suitability of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the high seas of the North Pacific Ocean using ensemble models under medium to long-term future climate scenarios

Marine Pollution Bulletin, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 207, С. 116873 - 116873

Опубликована: Авг. 24, 2024

Understanding and forecasting changes in marine habitats due to global climate warming is crucial for sustainable fisheries. Using future environmental data provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) occurrence records of Chub mackerel the North Pacific Ocean (2014-2023), we built eight individual models four ensemble simulate current habitat distribution forecast under three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) 2050s 2100s. Ensemble outperformed ones, with weighted average algorithm model achieving highest accuracy (AUC 0.994, TSS 0.929). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) chlorophyll-a (Chla) significantly influenced distribution. Predictions indicate high suitability areas are concentrated beyond 200-nautical-mile baseline. Under scenarios, expected decline, a shift towards higher latitudes deeper waters. High will be reduced.

Язык: Английский

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Effect of climate change on the habitat suitability of the relict species Zelkova carpinifolia Spach using ensembled species distribution modelling

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 14, 2024

Zelkova carpinifolia is a Tertiary relict tree distributed in Hyrcanian and Colchic forests. Most of its habitat has been destroyed the last century. This study aimed to model potentially suitable areas for from past future. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Future (2061–2080) models include 19 bioclimatic variables CCSM4 global circulation Pearson correlation coefficient was used assess collinearity between ten were selected distribution modelling. Habitat suitability estimated using Biodiversity Modelling (BIOMOD) ensemble modelling method by combining results algorithm R package "biomod2". area under curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) true skills statistics (TSS) calculated evaluate performance models. contributions environmental separately each model. According obtained, most effective variable species temperature seasonality (Bio4). revealed that survived refuge western Asia during LGM. These have remained largely unchanged even expanded. future predict habitats will narrow forests south Caspian Sea more conditions be found around Caucasus. Given increasing destruction these valuable plant due human activities expected negative impacts climate change future, it important develop policies strategies protection carpinifolia's habitat, creation nature reserves, sustainability.

Язык: Английский

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Simulating Habitat Suitability Changes of Threadfin Porgy (Evynnis cardinalis) in the Northern South China Sea Using Ensemble Models Under Medium-to-Long-Term Future Climate Scenarios

Biology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 14(3), С. 236 - 236

Опубликована: Фев. 26, 2025

The impact of global warming on fish distribution is a key factor in fishery management and sustainable development. However, limited knowledge exists regarding the influence environmental factors Evynnis cardinalis under climate change. This study addresses this gap by predicting species current conditions three future scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) using five individual models four ensemble models. results demonstrate that outperform single models, with majority voting (EMca) achieving highest accuracy (ROC = 0.97, TSS 0.85). Bathymetry (BM) sea surface height (SSH) are primary influencing distribution. predictions indicate currently suitable habitats E. primarily located Beibu Gulf region northern South China Sea. Under scenarios, habitat areas expected to expand higher latitudes deeper waters, though highly western Guangdong coastal Gulf, southwestern offshore waters Hainan Island will significantly decrease.

Язык: Английский

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Comparative analysis of modeling methods and prediction accuracy for Japanese sardine habitat under three climate scenarios with differing greenhouse emission pathways

Marine Pollution Bulletin, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 215, С. 117867 - 117867

Опубликована: Март 24, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Distribution and Conservation Gaps of Nautilus pompilius: A Study Based on Species Distribution Models

Diversity, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 17(4), С. 243 - 243

Опубликована: Март 28, 2025

Nautilus pompilius, a ‘living fossil’ of the oceans, is crucial to study biological evolution and paleontology. However, species’ habitat has been severely impacted by global climate change. Based on this, species distribution models conservation gap analyses were conducted under current future scenarios. The results revealed that habitats for N. pompilius primarily located in coastal waters Australia, Indonesia, Philippines. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, suitable projected decline 4.8% 2050s 5.3% 2100s. This loss expected intensify higher emission scenarios, particularly RCP 8.5, where reduction could reach 15.4% Conservation analysis indicates while nearly 30% fall within marine protected areas (MPAs), many vulnerable regions remain unprotected. Future MPA establishment should strategically address these gaps, such as Gulf Carpentaria, Arafura Sea, southern edge Timor Sea. provides critical insights into patterns needs emphasizing urgent need targeted efforts protect this endangered species.

Язык: Английский

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Modelling the Influence of Climate Drivers on the Spatial Distribution of Scads along the West Coast of India

Regional Studies in Marine Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 104171 - 104171

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Simulation and Identification of the Habitat of Antarctic Krill Based on Vessel Position Data and Integrated Species Distribution Model: A Case Study of Pumping-Suction Beam Trawl Fishing Vessels

Animals, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(11), С. 1557 - 1557

Опубликована: Май 27, 2025

This study, based on the vessel position data of pump-suction beam trawlers and integrated species distribution model (ISDM), deeply analyzes spatio-temporal characteristics habitat Antarctic krill contributions key environmental factors. The Convolutional Neural Network–attention (CNN–attention model) was used to identify fishing status Norwegian for during seasons from 2021 2023. Variables marine environment, including sea surface temperature (SST), height (SSH), chlorophyll concentration (CHL), ice (SIC), salinity (SSS), spatial factor Geographical Offshore Linear Distance (GLD) were combined input into ISDM simulating predicting habitat. results show that Area Under Curve (AUC) True Skill Statistic (TSS) indices all months exceed 0.9, with an average AUC 0.997 a TSS 0.973, indicating extremely high accuracy in prediction. Further analysis factors reveals (CHL) are main affecting suitability, contributing 34.9% 25.2%, respectively, their contribution exceeds 60%. In addition, such as (SSS) have impacts varying degrees, each exhibits different suitability response sub-regions. There is no significant correlation between area catch (p > 0.05), while there positive duration < 0.001), longer can effectively increase catch.

Язык: Английский

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Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe

BMC Public Health, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 24(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 28, 2024

Abstract Background In Zimbabwe, anthrax is endemic with outbreaks being reported almost annually in livestock, wildlife, and humans over the past 40 years. Accurate modelling of its spatial distribution key formulating effective control strategies. this study, an Ensemble Species Distribution Model was used to model current future occurrence Zimbabwe. Methods Bioclimatic variables derived from Beijing Climate Centre System were disease. Collinearity testing conducted on 19 bioclimatic elevation remove redundancy. Variables that had no collinearity for habitat suitability modelling. Two climate change scenarios different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 RCP8.5 used. evaluation done using true skill, Kappa statistics receiver operating characteristics. Results The results showed under conditions, eastern western districts Zimbabwe modelled as highly suitable, central moderately suitable southern parts marginally occurrence. Future predictions demonstrated (8%) (7%) areas would increase scenario. contrast, a respective decrease (11%) marginal (0.6%) predicted percentage contribution predictors varied scenarios; Bio6 Bio18 scenario, Bio2, Bio4 Bio9 Bio3 Bio15 scenarios. Conclusions study revealed currently should be targeted surveillance prevention. can guide prioritise activities optimise allocation limited resources. areas, disease systems awareness need put place early detection outbreaks. Targeted vaccinations other measures including collaborative ‘One Health’ strategies implemented areas. part where high predicted, continued monitoring necessary detect incursions early.

Язык: Английский

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Shrinking horizons: Climate-induced range shifts and conservation status of hickory trees (Carya Nutt.)

Ecological Informatics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown, С. 102910 - 102910

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Ecological informatics: Metamorphosing ecology to a translational discipline

Ecological Informatics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 80, С. 102525 - 102525

Опубликована: Фев. 18, 2024

Язык: Английский

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