Impact of multi-scenario land-use changes on habitat quality evolution in the Yangtze River economic belt

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 12

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2025

Ecosystems worldwide are facing significant challenges resulting from the dual pressures of global climate change and human activities, particularly in terms biodiversity loss associated with land-use change. Focusing on Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), this study uses System Dynamics (SD) - Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate development under different scenarios shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) representative concentration (RCPs) 2030 2050. Furthermore, InVEST is applied evaluate changes habitat quality (HQ) over period 2000 A hotspot analysis further highlights spatial heterogeneity HQ within YREB. The showed that pattern YREB 2020 2050 will be dominated by cropland eastern region, grassland north-west, forest land central southern regions, a steady increase built-up east. index exhibits gradual east west, ultimately declining 0.726 SSP585 scenario for This trend reflects moderate degradation (HD), degree shifting towards lower higher proportions HQ. Spatial reveals region identified as cold spot, categorized non-significant, while western emerges hot where exceeds 40%. These findings offer scientific foundation promoting high-quality enhancing conservation

Язык: Английский

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Effective management of urban water resources under various climate scenarios in semiarid mediterranean areas

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 19, 2024

Climate change has a significant impact on water resources, making it essential to re-evaluate management strategies and incorporate climate scenarios in assessments. The Municipal Department of Aigeiros is located the northern part Greece. Water consumption high increased future temperatures projected during summer period will create pressures resources. resources study region carried out using simulations RCA4 Regional Model (RCM) driven by HadGEM-ES global model Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) under 3 different emission scenarios, namely RCP 2.6, 4.5 8.5. For simulation urban balance Aigeiros, Komotini, Greece assessment demand supply for three (RCP 4.5, 8.5) over 30-year period, Aquacycle software was used. data used included climatic conditions area (i.e., precipitation evapotranspiration), domestic consumption, natural spatial characteristics. results indicate that drinking likely increase coming decades (1323 m3/d 2041–2050) 8.5 (1330 compared 2020 (1320 m3/d). However, suggest an groundwater recharge future, but also potential long drought periods months scenarios. show both current situation can be reference basis recording types areas. Therefore, possible control predict how much total due consumer usage profile within household or irrigation needs green areas line with conditions, behavior technical parameters.

Язык: Английский

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Water resources system vulnerability in high mountain areas under climate change

Journal of Cleaner Production, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 403, С. 136789 - 136789

Опубликована: Март 13, 2023

Язык: Английский

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How resilience capacity and multiple shocks affect rural households’ subjective well-being: A comparative study of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins in China

Land Use Policy, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 142, С. 107192 - 107192

Опубликована: Май 8, 2024

Язык: Английский

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The Impact of Human Activity Expansion on Habitat Quality in the Yangtze River Basin

Land, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 13(7), С. 908 - 908

Опубликована: Июнь 22, 2024

Globally, natural habitats have suffered tremendous damage from human activities, a phenomenon that is increasingly evident in basin regions. The management of regions dependent on understanding the various impacts activities these ecosystems. Despite studies been conducted effects regions, there still lot doubt regarding impact quality To fill this gap, study employs series spatial analysis methods and logistic regression modeling to delve into temporal patterns habitat Yangtze River Basin (YRB) as well differences sub-basins YRB. findings indicate 0.408% decline overall environmental YRB area 2000 2020, accompanied by 15.396% surge activities. Notably, southeastern Qilian Mountains mountainous northwestern sector Sichuan emerge pivotal areas for restoration. Conversely, southwestern urban clusters Delta (YRD) face significant deterioration. Spatial analyses reveal noteworthy trend: burgeoning region pose substantial threat recovery efforts. Further differential focusing upper, middle, lower segments underscore exert most pronounced within region, while upper experiences least influence. implications are manifold. It furnishes valuable policy insights comprehensive targeted preservation across By delineating restoration degradation highlighting segments, research lays solid foundation informed decision making conservation ecosystem

Язык: Английский

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Probabilistic Trade‐Offs Analysis for Sustainable and Equitable Management of Climate‐Induced Water Risks

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 61(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Abstract Pressures on water resources are fueling conflicts between sectors. This trend will likely worsen under future climate‐induced stress, jeopardizing food, energy and human security in most arid semi‐arid regions. Probabilistic analysis using stochastic optimization modeling can characterize multi‐sector vulnerabilities risks associated with stress. study identifies the probabilistic trade‐offs agricultural, urban sectors Ebro Basin (Spain). Two intervention policies have been examined compared: (a) agricultural priority, (b) for two planning horizons 2040–2070 2070–2100. Results show that goal is achieved both policies. However, achievement of food goals depends policy objectives spatial location irrigation schemes hydropower plants, which result different stream flows across basin. The choice results substantially benefit gains losses by sector therefore location. None sectoral production priority provides an equitable sharing benefits among all locations climate change, important issue, because success or failure interventions would depend distribution Policy uptake stakeholders reaching win‐win outcomes where losers compensated, while delivering acceptable levels large river basins. Information contributes to design management strategies capable addressing vulnerability.

Язык: Английский

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Nonlinear responses of coupled socioecological systems to land use and climate changes in the Yangtze river basin

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 26, 2025

The intensification of land use and climate change threatens watershed sustainability. These external disturbances drive complex interactions among components within socio-ecological systems (SESs). Understanding how SESs respond to these changes is crucial for developing effective integrated management strategies. Nevertheless, the nonlinear responses such remain poorly understood. To fill this gap, study proposes a network analysis method focusing on Yangtze River Basin construct an SES comprising six dimensions, revealing response coupled relationships elements land-use change. results showed that in dynamics (LUD) standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) altered link count importance nodes, with notable shifts vegetation landscape nodes. Importantly, strong LUD SPEI relationship between was observed, critical thresholds were identified all attributes. Furthermore, compared threshold, threshold stable at 0.24, demonstrating stronger robustness. This provides new perspective understanding SESs, has important implications sustainable ecosystem planning.

Язык: Английский

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Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Changes and Scenario Predictions of Carbon Storage in a Small Watershed Driven by Social‐Natural Factors in Cold Regions

Land Degradation and Development, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 11, 2025

ABSTRACT Carbon storage (CS) influences the balance and stability of carbon cycle in global terrestrial ecosystems. Research on changes CS scenario forecasting is essential for developing sustainable socioeconomic policies. To more accurately predict small watersheds cold regions, this study takes Ashi River watershed (ARW) as a case to explore “past–present–future” CS. We quantify dominant factors affecting further focus prediction under four SSP–RCP scenarios considering from new perspective by coupling Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services Tradeoffs (InVEST) Patch‐generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) models, which important implementing dual policy regions. The findings revealed pattern growth followed reduction between 1990 2020, resulting an overall increase 2.68% 3947.40 × 10 4 Mg 2020. Both natural drove CS, with having direct positive impact negative impact. Climate land use types were significantly correlated simulations showed significant across all scenarios, largest 52.39% occurring ecological protection 18.36% black soil cropland conservation scenario. A management strategy was developed based cover change (LUCC) ARW's developmental trajectory establish economic–ecological balanced development model. results can provide valuable reference decision‐makers formulating strategies units

Язык: Английский

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Integrating AHP and GIS for Sustainable Surface Water Planning: Identifying Vulnerability to Agricultural Diffuse Pollution in the Guachal River Watershed

Sustainability, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 17(9), С. 4130 - 4130

Опубликована: Май 2, 2025

Diffuse agricultural pollution is a leading contributor to surface water degradation, particularly in regions undergoing rapid land use change and intensification. In many developing countries, conventional assessment approaches fall short of capturing the spatial complexity cumulative nature multiple environmental drivers that influence vulnerability. This study addresses this gap by introducing Integral Index Vulnerability Contamination (IIVDC), spatially explicit, multi-criteria framework combines Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The IIVDC integrates six key indicators—slope, soil erodibility, use, runoff potential, hydrological connectivity, observed quality—weighted through expert elicitation mapped at high resolution. methodology was applied Guachal River watershed Valle del Cauca, Colombia, where pressures are pronounced. Results indicate 33.0% exhibits vulnerability 4.3% very vulnerability, critical zones aligned steep slopes, limited vegetation cover, strong connectivity cultivated areas. By accounting for both biophysical attributes pollutant transport pathways, offers replicable tool prioritizing management interventions. Beyond its technical application, contributes sustainability enabling evidence-based decision-making resource protection planning. It supports integrated, targeted actions can reduce long-term contamination risks, guide sustainable practices, improve institutional capacity governance. approach suited contexts data but planning essential. Future refinement should consider dynamic quality monitoring validation across contrasting hydro-climatic enhance transferability.

Язык: Английский

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Balancing Hydrological Sustainability and Heritage Conservation: A Decadal Analysis of Water-Yield Dynamics in the Honghe Hani Rice Terraces

Hydrology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 12(6), С. 135 - 135

Опубликована: Май 31, 2025

The Honghe Hani Rice Terraces, a UNESCO World Heritage agroecosystem, embody millennia-old synergy of cultural heritage and ecological resilience, yet face declining water yields amid land-use intensification climate variability. This study employs the InVEST model geographic detector analysis to quantify water-yield dynamics from 2010 2020 identify their spatial mechanistic drivers. Annual yield averaged 558 mm, with cultivated lands contributing 33% total volume, while built-up areas reached 980 mm per unit in 2018. A 31% decline by 2020, driven cropland fragmentation tourism growth, revealed persistent-yield hotspots forested central-eastern terraces cold spots southwestern dryland margins. Land-use pattern accounted for 80–95% variability, exacerbated temperature interactions. Forests, delivering 68.7 million m3 over decade, highlight hydrological significance traditional landscape mosaics. These findings advocate reforestation critical recharge zones, terrace restoration preserve agroecological integrity, regulated integrating rainwater harvesting sustain security heritage. By blending modeling socio-cultural insights, this provides scalable framework safeguarding terraced agroecosystems worldwide, aligning conservation sustainable development.

Язык: Английский

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