Multi-Scenario Simulation and Assessment of Ecological Security Patterns: A Case Study of Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone DOI Open Access

Yuke Song,

Mangen Li,

Linghua Duo

и другие.

Sustainability, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 17(9), С. 4017 - 4017

Опубликована: Апрель 29, 2025

Ecological security is integral to national strategies, making the construction of ecological patterns essential for mitigating risks. However, predictive research on (ESPs) remains limited. This study integrates Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with pattern analysis provide scientific insights into spatial governance and optimization in Poyang Lake Economic Zone (PLEEZ). First, PLUS simulated land use changes 2030 under three scenarios: natural development (ND), economic (ED), protection (EP). Based these projections, were constructed using Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) method, Conefor 2.6, Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) resistance theory. The results indicate: (1) 19, 18, 21 source areas identified different scenarios, covering 6093.16 km2, 5973.21 6702.56 respectively, 9, 8, 10 important sites, primarily north. (2) 37, 35, 43 corridors delineated, exhibiting a spiderweb-like distribution. (3) 94, 62, 107 pinch points 116, 121, 104 barrier detected. Node Aggregation Area was as critical zone targeted restoration. Finally, zoning management strategy “Four Cores, Two Zones, One Belt” proposed. offers valuable sustainable planning risk mitigation.

Язык: Английский

Multi-Scenario Simulation and Assessment of Ecological Security Patterns: A Case Study of Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone DOI Open Access

Yuke Song,

Mangen Li,

Linghua Duo

и другие.

Sustainability, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 17(9), С. 4017 - 4017

Опубликована: Апрель 29, 2025

Ecological security is integral to national strategies, making the construction of ecological patterns essential for mitigating risks. However, predictive research on (ESPs) remains limited. This study integrates Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with pattern analysis provide scientific insights into spatial governance and optimization in Poyang Lake Economic Zone (PLEEZ). First, PLUS simulated land use changes 2030 under three scenarios: natural development (ND), economic (ED), protection (EP). Based these projections, were constructed using Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) method, Conefor 2.6, Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) resistance theory. The results indicate: (1) 19, 18, 21 source areas identified different scenarios, covering 6093.16 km2, 5973.21 6702.56 respectively, 9, 8, 10 important sites, primarily north. (2) 37, 35, 43 corridors delineated, exhibiting a spiderweb-like distribution. (3) 94, 62, 107 pinch points 116, 121, 104 barrier detected. Node Aggregation Area was as critical zone targeted restoration. Finally, zoning management strategy “Four Cores, Two Zones, One Belt” proposed. offers valuable sustainable planning risk mitigation.

Язык: Английский

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