Ecological Indicators, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 162, С. 112032 - 112032

Опубликована: Апрель 17, 2024

China has focused on pre-warning risks in its national policies, under the pressure of increasing associated with urbanization. While developing restrictive indicators assists government risk management, tracking urbanization and identifying their critical points remains relatively rare. We addressed this gap by presenting a general framework to quantify potential Within framework, early warning were selected from four dimensions China, which include population development, economic growth, resource sustainability, environmental protection. then analyzed historical characteristics these 1980 2020 using Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter method predicted trend 2021 2030 Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. The findings as follows: (1) A complete cycle was observed for most within 10 years, cyclical fluctuations sensitive changes policies external environment, tipping after 1–2 years. (2) Certain showed signals next cycle, including total fertility rate, urban unemployment water consumption. prediction results provided thresholds policy intervention. (3) As indicated signals, negative rising unemployment, between supply demand resources main factors China. Some suggestions response, dealing women's job security work-life balance, ensuring employment opportunities vulnerable groups, accelerating upgrading tertiary industry expand domestic market demand, strictly controlling consumption limited resources. These present contribute formulation development plans.

Язык: Английский