Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Earth system science data, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(6), С. 2295 - 2327

Опубликована: Июнь 6, 2023

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC), including first global stocktake Paris Agreement that will conclude at COP28 in December 2023. Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information key indicators state system human influence system. However, successive IPCC reports published intervals 5–10 years, creating potential an gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close possible those used Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. compile monitoring datasets produce estimates related forcing system: emissions greenhouse gases short-lived forcers, gas concentrations, radiative forcing, surface temperature changes, Earth's energy imbalance, warming attributed activities, remaining carbon budget, extremes. The purpose this effort, grounded open data, science approach, is make annually updated reliable available public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8000192, Smith et al., 2023a). As they traceable methods, can all parties involved UNFCCC help convey wider understanding latest knowledge its direction travel. show human-induced reached 1.14 [0.9 1.4] ∘C averaged over 2013–2022 decade 1.26 [1.0 1.6] 2022. Over period, has been increasing unprecedented rate 0.2 per decade. This high caused a combination being all-time 54 ± 5.3 GtCO2e last decade, well reductions strength aerosol cooling. Despite this, there increases have slowed, depending societal choices, continued series these annual updates critical 2020s could track change climate.

Язык: Английский

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Advances in air quality research – current and emerging challenges

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 22(7), С. 4615 - 4703

Опубликована: Апрель 11, 2022

Abstract. This review provides a community's perspective on air quality research focusing mainly developments over the past decade. The article perspectives current and future challenges as well needs for selected key topics. While this paper is not an exhaustive of all areas in field quality, we have topics that feel are important from policy perspectives. After providing short historical overview, focuses improvements characterizing sources emissions pollution, new observations instrumentation, advances prediction forecasting, understanding interactions with meteorology climate, exposure health assessment, management policy. In conducting review, specific objectives were (i) to address push boundaries forward, (ii) highlight emerging prominent gaps knowledge research, (iii) make recommendations guide direction within wider community. also identifies particular importance original concept was borne at International Conference Air Quality 2020 (held online due COVID 19 restrictions during 18–26 May 2020), but incorporates landscape literature science. On pollution highlights, particular, need reduce uncertainties diffuse sources, particulate matter chemical components, shipping emissions, considering both indoor outdoor sources. There growing integrated related ground-based remote sensing instruments, including those satellites. should capitalize area low-cost sensors, while ensuring measurements which regulated by guidelines. Connecting various physical scales modelling still continual issue, cities being affected gradients local long-range transport. At same time, one allow impacts climate change longer timescale. Earth system offers considerable potential consistent framework treating processes, especially where there significant feedbacks, such aerosols, chemistry, meteorology. Assessment consider application more sophisticated, dynamic approaches predict concentrations pollutants environments. With most health, indicating urgent understand, role particle number components terms impact, turn requires improved emission inventories models predicting high-resolution distributions these metrics cities. examines how adapt above-mentioned briefly considers implications COVID-19 pandemic quality. Finally, provide support

Язык: Английский

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Substantially underestimated global health risks of current ozone pollution

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 2, 2025

Existing assessments might have underappreciated ozone-related health impacts worldwide. Here our study assesses current global ozone pollution using the high-resolution (0.05°) estimation from a geo-ensemble learning model, with key focuses on population exposure and all-cause mortality burden. Our model demonstrates strong performance, achieving mean bias of less than -1.5 parts per billion against in-situ measurements. We estimate that 66.2% is exposed to excess for short term (> 30 days year), 94.2% suffers long-term exposure. Furthermore, severe levels are observed in Cropland areas, particularly over Asia. Importantly, ozone-attributable deaths significantly surpass previous recognition specific diseases Notably, mid-latitude Asia (30°N) western United States show high burden, contributing substantially deaths. highlights significant risks may benefit ozone-exposed future. This reveals O₃-related risks, model.

Язык: Английский

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Sustainable development goals under threat? Multidimensional impact of COVID-19 on our planet and society outweigh short term global pollution reduction

Sustainable Cities and Society, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 83, С. 103962 - 103962

Опубликована: Май 22, 2022

Язык: Английский

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Impact of the COVID‐19 Economic Downturn on Tropospheric Ozone Trends: An Uncertainty Weighted Data Synthesis for Quantifying Regional Anomalies Above Western North America and Europe

AGU Advances, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 3(2)

Опубликована: Март 4, 2022

This study quantifies the association between COVID-19 economic downturn and 2020 tropospheric ozone anomalies above Europe western North America, their impact on long-term trends. Anomaly detection for an atmospheric time series is usually carried out by identifying potentially aberrant data points relative to climatological values. However, detecting from sparsely sampled ozonesonde profiles (once per week at most sites) challenging due ozone's high temporal variability. We first demonstrate challenges summarizing regional trends based independent multiple nearby profiling stations. then propose a novel regional-scale anomaly framework generalized additive mixed models, which accounts sampling frequency inherent uncertainty associated with each vertical profile set, measured ozonesondes, lidar or commercial aircraft. method produces monthly resolution that reports surface middle-stratosphere under unified framework, can be used quantify during downturn. By incorporating extensive aircraft frequently Europe, we show complex interannual variability of adequately captured our modeling approach. The results free negative in are profound since benchmark year 1994 both positive over 1994-2019 diminished regions anomalies.

Язык: Английский

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War Impact on Air Quality in Ukraine

Sustainability, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 14(21), С. 13832 - 13832

Опубликована: Окт. 25, 2022

In the light of 21st century, after two devastating world wars, humanity still has not learned to solve their conflicts through peaceful negotiations and dialogue. Armed conflicts, both international within a single state, cause devastation, displacement, death all over world. Not mention consequences that war on environment. Due lack published research about impact modern air quality, this work studies pollution evolution during first months Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Satellite images NO2, CO, O3, SO2, PM2.5 Ukrainian territory land monitoring data for Kyiv were analyzed. The results showed NO2 correlated most with activities. CO O3 levels increased, while SO2 concentrations reduced four-fold as intensified. Drastic increases in (especially PM2.5) from bombing structural fires, raise additional health concerns, which might have serious implications exposed local regional populations. This study is an invaluable proof any armed conflict population,

Язык: Английский

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Elemental Composition and Sources of Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) in Delhi, India

Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 110(3)

Опубликована: Март 1, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Air pollution analysis in Northwestern South America: A new Lagrangian framework

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 906, С. 167350 - 167350

Опубликована: Сен. 27, 2023

This study examines the spatiotemporal variations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, O3, NO, and NO2 concentrations in Northwestern South America (NWSA). We assess efficacy existing policies, identify underlying phenomena, highlight areas for further research. Significant findings have emerged by analyzing reanalysis in-situ data, employing WRF-Chem model, utilizing a new Lagrangian framework designed to overcome some drawbacks common analysis pollution Long-Range Transport. Wildfires first half year volcanic activity (for SO2) July-August contribute over 90 % pollutant's advection, leading high levels urban areas. SO2 emissions secondary PM, explaining peak PM Cali July. In second year, pollutant behavior varies based on factors such as city characteristics, vehicular-volume, air temperature, wind speed, boundary layer height, O3 is influenced solar radiation NO/NO2 ratio. Diurnal NOx correlate with vehicular density, industrial activity, depends radiation. Trend reveals decreasing PM10 except three Cundinamarca cities suggesting need implement/evaluate control plans those locations. Although data limited, NO show an increasing trend due rising number vehicles. are decreasing, Cali, potentially nearby polluted Yumbo. displays downward most cities, Bogotá, ratio favoring increase. These provide starting point research deepen our understanding NWSA pollution. Such investigations essential before modifying policies or enacting ones. Collaborative efforts at international, regional, inter-city crucial effective quality management.

Язык: Английский

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Quantification of COVID-19 impacts on NO2 and O3: Systematic model selection and hyperparameter optimization on AI-based meteorological-normalization methods

Atmospheric Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 301, С. 119677 - 119677

Опубликована: Фев. 27, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Improving 3-day deterministic air pollution forecasts using machine learning algorithms

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 24(2), С. 807 - 851

Опубликована: Янв. 19, 2024

Abstract. As air pollution is regarded as the single largest environmental health risk in Europe it important that communication to public up date and accurate provides means avoid exposure high levels. Long- short-term outdoor associated with increased risks of mortality morbidity. Up-to-date information on present coming days' quality helps people during episodes levels pollution. Air forecasts can be based deterministic dispersion modelling, but this requires detailed future emissions, meteorological conditions process-oriented modelling. In paper, we apply different machine learning (ML) algorithms – random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), long memory (LSTM) improve 1, 2, 3 d PM10, NOx, O3 at sites Greater Stockholm, Sweden. It shown significantly improved using ML models degree improvement depends more pollutant site than what algorithm applied. Also, four feature importance methods, namely mean decrease impurity (MDI) method, permutation gradient-based Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) are utilized identify significant features common robust across all methods for a pollutant. Deterministic PM10 by through input lagged measurements Julian day partly reflecting seasonal variations not properly parameterized forecasts. A systematic discrepancy diurnal cycle NOx removed considering calendar data like hour weekday, influence local traffic emissions. For urban background site, photochemistry accounted relatively coarse Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service ensemble model (CAMS) used here forecasting compensated taking into account. Through multiple repetitions training process, resulting achieved improvements pollutants. street canyon sites, squared error (MSE) decreased 60 %, seven metrics, such R2 absolute percentage (MAPE), exhibited consistent results. The prediction whereas have difficulty capturing information. accuracy also modestly increased, differences between metrics. Further work needed reduce deviations results short periods concentrations (peaks) sites. Such peaks due combination non-typical emissions unfavourable conditions, which rather difficult forecast. Furthermore, show general trained from selected station involved training. was only possible complex LSTM models. An aspect consider when choosing computational requirements deployment system. Tree-based (RF XGB) require fewer resources yield comparable performance comparison LSTM. Therefore, tree-based now implemented operationally Stockholm. Nevertheless, there big potential develop generic advanced take account temporal variation spatial stations.

Язык: Английский

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