ABSTRACT
To
fulfil
the
commitments
of
Paris
Agreement,
China
will
strive
to
achieve
carbon
peak
(CP)
by
2030.
It
is
necessary
identify
evolution
characteristics
China's
emissions
and
provide
a
scientific
path
prediction
for
formulation
reasonable
emission
reduction
policies
measures.
This
study
summarises
predicts
pathway
using
intensity
(CEI)
percentage
non‐fossil
energy
consumption
(NEC)
as
indicators,
combining
MSIH(3)‐AR(2)
model
recurrent
neural
network.
The
results
show
that:
(1)
CEI
experiences
‘low
decline
regime’
(LDR),
‘medium
(MDR)
‘high
(HDR),
while
share
NEC
goes
through
fluctuation
(LFR),
growth
(MGR)
(HGR).
(2)
For
CEI,
switching
probability
from
MDR
HDR
74.88%,
illustrating
substantial
improvement.
NEC,
MGR
HGR
28.92%,
but
returning
61.76%,
indicating
an
adjustment.
(3)
By
2030,
reach
0.9896
tons/100
million
CNY,
decreased
66.35%
compared
with
2005.
While
rise
26.61%.
Based
on
these,
policy
suggestions
such
strengthening
top‐level
design,
upgrading
mix
accelerating
green
technological
changes
are
proposed
break
bottlenecks
reaching
CP
further
zero
goal.
expected
theoretical
support
empirical
evidence
achievement
in
China,
references
promoting
‘dual
carbon’
process
other
countries.
Sustainability,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
17(5), С. 2186 - 2186
Опубликована: Март 3, 2025
The
digital
economy
is
crucial
in
facilitating
cities’
green
and
low-carbon
transformations,
balancing
economic
growth
with
environmental
sustainability.
However,
its
role
mitigating
urban
carbon
emissions
remains
underexplored
existing
research.
This
study
examines
how
technologies
contribute
to
emission
reduction
by
integrating
circular
theory
behavioral
economics
theory.
Based
on
expert
interviews
a
systematic
literature
review,
the
research
applies
Decision-Making
Trial
Evaluation
Laboratory
Interpretive
Structural
Modeling
(DEMATEL-ISM)
methodology
identify
13
key
factors
driving
transitions.
findings
highlight
that
economy-driven
transformation,
infrastructure
development
e-commerce
logistics
optimization
are
pivotal
for
reducing
emissions.
offers
theoretical
insights
into
economy’s
development.
It
also
provides
practical
guidance
policymakers,
managers
businesses.
These
strategies
can
enhance
energy
efficiency,
reduce
promote
ecological
Scientific Reports,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
15(1)
Опубликована: Апрель 8, 2025
Abstract
Under
the
“dual
carbon”
goals,
heavily
polluting
enterprises
face
dual
pressures
to
reduce
both
pollution
and
carbon
emissions,
necessitating
urgent
exploration
of
effective
pathways
for
coordinated
emission
reductions.
This
study
investigates
potential
digital
transformation
in
achieve
synergistic
First,
entropy
method
is
employed
measure
enterprise
digitalization
pollutant
levels,
spatial–temporal
evolution
characteristics
regional
reductions
are
analyzed.
Subsequently,
using
panel
data
from
Yangtze
River
Economic
Belt,
examines
impact
on
reduction,
its
underlying
mechanisms,
moderating
effects
environmental
policies
these
relationships.
Robustness
tests
confirm
synergy
between
emissions.
The
findings
reveal
that
contributes
reduction
emissions
enterprises,
primarily
through
two
pathways:
integration
internal
innovation
resources
collaborative
engagement
external
networks.
Furthermore,
air
control
low-carbon
city
initiatives
significantly
enhance
digitalization.
Interestingly,
located
downstream
regions
River,
those
with
smaller
operational
scales,
or
facing
strong
financing
constraints,
demonstrate
more
pronounced
transformation.
Based
conclusions,
we
recommend
governments
focus
strengthening
either
“pollution
reduction”
“carbon
policies,
as
alone
can
yield
benefits.
Additionally,
tailoring
local
conditions
maximize
economic
Environments,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
12(2), С. 37 - 37
Опубликована: Янв. 22, 2025
Policy
synergy,
the
evidence-based
coordination
of
public
policies,
can
aid
in
more
rapidly
achieving
air
pollutant
and
carbon
dioxide
(CO2)
emission
reduction
targets.
Using
logarithmic
mean
Divisia
index
(LMDI)
decomposition,
coupling
degree
(CCD),
geographically
temporally
weighted
regression
(GTWR)
models,
we
analyzed
characteristics,
drivers,
pathways
residential
pollution
across
30
Chinese
provinces
from
2001
to
2020.
The
southern
produced
than
northern
provinces,
with
gap
widening
after
2015.
In
sector,
energy
factors
(LMDI
decomposition
result,
686,681.9)
population
size
(14,331)
had
greater
impacts
on
emissions
structure,
intensity,
synergies,
or
GDP
per
capita.
GTWR
analysis
CCD
mechanism
indicated
that
hydroelectricity
urbanization
enhanced
southeast.
Meanwhile,
west,
was
improved
by
R&D
investment,
government
spending
industrial
control,
electricity
consumption,
capita
cropland,
temperature,
urbanization.
This
provides
a
valuable
reference
for
optimizing
strategies.
