Epidemics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 41, С. 100651 - 100651
Опубликована: Окт. 31, 2022
Язык: Английский
Annals of Global Health, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 90(1), С. 22 - 22
Опубликована: Март 22, 2024
Background: Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases is an important decision-making tool for outbreak control. However, in Africa, limited expertise reduces the use and impact these tools on policy. Therefore, there a need to build capacity Africa mathematical inform Here we describe our experience implementing training program public health professionals East Africa. Methods: We used deliverable-driven learning-by-doing model introduce trainees diseases. The comprised two two-week in-person sessions practicum where received intensive mentorship. Trainees evaluated content structure course at end each week, this feedback informed strategy subsequent weeks. Findings: Out 875 applications from 38 countries, selected ten three countries – Rwanda (6), Kenya (2), Uganda (2) with guidance advisory committee. Nine were based government institutions one academic organization. Participants gained skills developing models answer questions interest critically appraising studies. At training, prepared policy briefs summarizing their study findings. These presented dissemination event policymakers, researchers, managers. All indicated they would recommend colleagues rated quality median score 9/10. Conclusions: programs can be effective research building support mitigate disease burden forecast resources. Overall, was successful, owing combination factors, including institutional support, trainees’ commitment, mentorship, diverse trainee pool, regular evaluations.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
3
BMJ Open, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(4), С. e093645 - e093645
Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025
Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the significance of mathematical modelling in decision-making and limited capacity many low-income middle-income countries (LMICs). Thus, we studied how supported policy processes LMICs during (details a separate paper). We found that strong researcher–policymaker relationships co-creation facilitated knowledge translation, while scepticism, political pressures demand for quick outputs were barriers. also noted routine use modelled evidence requires sustained funding, building policy-facing modelling, robust data infrastructure dedicated translation mechanisms. These lessons helped us co-create framework roadmap improving public health decision-making. This communication paper describes components provides an implementation approach recommendations. include (1) (2) building, (3) infrastructure, (4) platforms (5) culture use. Key arguments Our integrates supply (modellers) (policymakers) sides contextual factors enable change. It is designed to be generic disease-agnostic any could support. not tool but guiding help build evidence-based target audience modellers policymakers, it other partners implementers Conclusion was created through engagements with policymakers researchers reflects their real-life experiences pandemic. Its purpose guide stakeholders, especially lower-resourced settings, capacity, prioritising efforts creating enabling environment using models as part base inform To validate its robustness impact, further work needed implement evaluate this diverse settings.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
The Lancet Global Health, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12(4), С. e555 - e556
Опубликована: Март 12, 2024
Applied epidemiological models have been crucial for understanding disease transmission dynamics, projecting future scenarios, and in the design implementation of prevention, control, elimination strategies.1Keeling MJ Danon L Mathematical modelling infectious diseases.British Medical Bulletin. 2009; 92: 33-42Crossref PubMed Scopus (108) Google Scholar, 2Grassly NC Fraser C transmission.Nature Reviews Microbiology. 2008; 6: 477-487Crossref (413) Scholar Despite potential to help address public health challenges, skills are seldom available or use Africa, which has a large burden limited resources it. The result is mismatch between where expertise concentrated (in high-income countries) it is, arguably, needed most. Local modellers, with nuanced local context, better positioned than those from outside Africa develop fit purpose, appreciate priorities, build trust-based relationships decision makers, thereby facilitating increased insights making processes. From March, 2020, April, 2021, COVID-19 pandemic highlighted this policy Africa. Four countries (South Nigeria, Morocco, Kenya) accounted 55% all publications on models, 42% did not publish single paper modelling, only 12% these published were calibrated data,3Kimani TN Nyamai M Owino et al.Infectious SARS-CoV-2 guide policy: systematic review.Epidemics. 2022; 40100610Crossref (1) potentially limiting both accuracy usefulness such model estimates.4Eggo RM Dawa J Kucharski AJ Cucunuba ZM importance context models.Nature Computational Science. 2021; 1: 6-8Crossref (13) On basis our experiences leading teams we recommend that four key ingredients required strengthen first development pipeline Africa-based modellers who work models. Although many African institutions train prerequisite subjects as mathematics, economics, physics, epidemiology, health, courses focused rare. Except International Clinics Infectious Diseases Data courses, most other settings often inaccessible researchers due high tuition travel costs well difficulties obtaining necessary visas. Investments high-quality without language cost barriers needed. Building requires longer term exposure 1-week 2-week workshops provide. training should include co-design end users, how communicate ways inform actions. second ingredient strengthening regional centres excellence modelling. Modelling growing field an enabling environment critical mass foster development, advancement, In generation advanced, there research networks training, building, using questions. multiple sectors. Some, financial sector, offer incentives make retention talent sector challenging. can by providing opportunities career growth within academic institutions. They also provide defined structures ministries implementers programmes engage modellers. This important addressing relative imbalance diversity voices contribute policies locally globally. For example, region accounts 25 (3%) 797 currently active WHO Collaborating Centres, 14 (56%) South third demand decisions. Even available, translating evidence informing These be overcome awareness among makers about what cannot do, questions relevant policy, poor communication assumptions limitations. solution commitment co-creation allowing routine iterative engagement makers. We argue deliberate placement departments, in-service fellowships leaders critically model-based evidence. Finally, advocate establishment at national, subnational, programme levels integrate into making. extend beyond emergency situations, pandemic, consistently incorporate during non-emergency periods. accrues benefits unlikely quick fix countries, varying stages capacity continuum.5Silal S Bardsley Menon R Abullahi White Epidemiological sub-Saharan Africa: strategy strengthening. Foreign, Commonwealth Development Office, London2022https://www.opml.co.uk/files/Projects/a4964-epidem-modelling-capacity-strengthening.pdf?noredirect=1Date accessed: November 20, 2023Google Strengthening will marathon, sprint. Prioritising sustained domestic international investments safeguarding accelerating attainment goals saving lives. declare no competing interests. SMT receives funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-044079) US Agency (7200AA20CA00022); JO (INV-034291); SPS (INV-047048) Wellcome Trust (225963/Z/22/Z). All authors contributed equally.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
2
Pathogens and Global Health, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 118(3), С. 262 - 276
Опубликована: Фев. 6, 2024
Seroprevalence studies assessing community exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Ghana concluded that population-level immunity remained low as of February 2021. Thus, it is important demonstrate how increasing vaccine coverage reduces the economic and public health impacts associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To end, this study used a Susceptible-Exposed-Presymptomatic-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered-Dead-Vaccinated compartmental model simulate disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission role interventions Ghana. The impact vaccination rates decline due nonpharmaceutical (NPIs) on cumulative infections deaths averted was explored under different scenarios. Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC) investigate uncertainty sensitivity outcomes parameters. Simulation results suggest rate achieve 50% almost 60,000 25 million averted. In comparison, decrease prevention about 150,000 50 infections. LHS-PRCC indicated context rate, were most sensitive waning from vaccination, natural infection. This study's findings illustrate and/or reducing by NPI adherence COVID-19
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
1
PLOS Global Public Health, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 3(12), С. e0002679 - e0002679
Опубликована: Дек. 13, 2023
Brazil was one of the countries most affected during first year COVID-19 pandemic, in a pre-vaccine era, and mathematical statistical models were used decision-making public policies to mitigate suppress SARS-CoV-2 dispersion. In this article, we intend overview modeling for Brazil, focusing on 18 months pandemic. We conducted scoping review searched studies infectious disease methods peer-reviewed journals gray literature, published between January 01, 2020, June 2, 2021, reporting real-world or scenario-based Brazil. included 81 studies, corresponding articles produced Brazilian institutions. The dynamic deterministic majority. predominant model type compartmental, but other also found. main objectives analyze epidemiological scenarios (testing interventions’ effectiveness) project short long-term predictions, while few performed economic impact analysis. Estimations R 0 transmission rates projections regarding course epidemic figured as major, especially at beginning crisis. However, several outputs forecasted, such isolation/quarantine effect transmission, hospital facilities required, secondary cases caused by infected children, effects This study reveals numerous with shared similar data sources. observed deficiency addressing social inequities context within utilized models, which may be expected low- middle-income significant disparities. conclude that great relevance pandemic scenario COVID-19. Nevertheless, efforts could better planned executed improved institutional organization, dialogue among research groups, increased interaction modelers epidemiologists, establishment sustainable cooperation network.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
1
Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 32(3), С. 315 - 323
Опубликована: Фев. 21, 2024
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
Tropical Medicine & International Health, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 29(6), С. 466 - 476
Опубликована: Май 13, 2024
Abstract Objective Mathematical models are vital tools to understand transmission dynamics and assess the impact of interventions mitigate COVID‐19. However, historically, their use in Africa has been limited. In this scoping review, we how mathematical were used study COVID‐19 vaccination potentially inform pandemic planning response Africa. Methods We searched six electronic databases: MEDLINE, Embase, Web Science, Global Health, MathSciNet Africa‐Wide NiPAD, using keywords identify articles focused on modelling studies that published as October 2022. extracted details country, author affiliation, characteristics models, policy intent heterogeneity factors. assessed quality 21‐point scale criteria model content studies. Results The literature search yielded 462 articles, which 32 included based eligibility criteria. Nineteen (59%) had a first affiliated with an African country. Of studies, 30 (94%) compartmental models. By most about or South ( n = 12, 37%), followed by Morocco 6, 19%) Ethiopia 5, 16%). Most 19, 59%) increasing coverage burden. Half 16, 50%) intent: prioritising selecting interventions, response, vaccine distribution optimisation strategies understanding Fourteen (44%) medium eight (25%) high quality. Conclusions While decision‐makers could draw insights from evidence generated policy, found there was limited such exploring impacts for disparity can be addressed scaling up training, collaborative opportunities between modellers policymakers, access funding.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
Public health reviews, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 45
Опубликована: Окт. 10, 2024
Objectives To identify COVID-19 infectious disease models that accounted for social determinants of health (SDH). Methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, medRxiv, and the Web Science from December 2019 to August 2020. included mathematical modelling studies focused on humans investigating impact including at least one SDH. abstracted study characteristics (e.g., country, model type, health) appraised quality using best practices guidelines. Results 83 were included. Most pertained multiple countries (n = 15), United States 12), or China 7). compartmental 45) agent-based Age was most incorporated SDH 74), followed by gender race/ethnicity 7) remote/rural location 6). reflected dynamic nature spread 51, 61%) but few reported internal 10, 12%) external 31, 37%) validation. Conclusion Few published early in pandemic other than age. Neglect may result foregone opportunities understand differential impacts assess targeted interventions. Systematic Review Registration: [ https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42020207706 ], PROSPERO, CRD42020207706.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
Global perspectives on health geography, Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown, С. 125 - 145
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
Epidemics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 41, С. 100651 - 100651
Опубликована: Окт. 31, 2022
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0