Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design

Epidemics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 47, С. 100775 - 100775

Опубликована: Май 24, 2024

Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers scientists. In the past decade, especially during COVID-19 pandemic, field of epidemiology seen substantial growth in use projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at same time, allowing comparisons that can guide choice intervention, prioritization research topics, or public communication. The design is central their ability inform questions. this paper, we draw fields analysis statistical experiments propose a framework epidemiology, also other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, situational awareness, horizon scanning, forecasting, value information) discuss those structure scenarios. aspects content process design, broadly all settings specifically multi-model ensemble As illustrative case study, examine first 17 rounds from U.S. Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect future advancements could improve epidemiological settings.

Язык: Английский

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The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy

Epidemics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 46, С. 100738 - 100738

Опубликована: Дек. 29, 2023

Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of burden in US to guide pandemic planning decision-making context high uncertainty. This effort was born out an attempt coordinate, synthesize effectively use unprecedented amount predictive modeling that emerged throughout pandemic. Here we describe history this massive collective research effort, process convening maintaining open hub active over multiple years, provide a blueprint for future efforts. We detail generating 17 rounds scenarios at different stages pandemic, disseminating results public health community lay public. also highlight how SMH expanded generate influenza during 2022-23 season. identify key impacts on draw lessons improve collaborative efforts, scenario projections, interface between models policy.

Язык: Английский

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Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 12, 2023

Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers scientists. In the past decade, especially during COVID-19 pandemic, field of epidemiology seen substantial growth in use projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at same time, allowing comparisons that can guide choice intervention, prioritization research topics, or public communication. The design is central their ability inform questions. this paper, we draw fields analysis statistical experiments propose a framework epidemiology, also other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, value information, situational awareness, horizon scanning, forecasting) discuss those structure scenarios. aspects content process design, broadly all settings specifically multi-model ensemble As illustrative case study, examine first 17 rounds from U.S. Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect future advancements could improve epidemiological settings.

Язык: Английский

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Preface: COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hubs

Epidemics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 48, С. 100788 - 100788

Опубликована: Авг. 24, 2024

Язык: Английский

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