
Epidemics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 48, С. 100788 - 100788
Опубликована: Авг. 24, 2024
Язык: Английский
Epidemics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 48, С. 100788 - 100788
Опубликована: Авг. 24, 2024
Язык: Английский
Epidemics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 47, С. 100775 - 100775
Опубликована: Май 24, 2024
Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers scientists. In the past decade, especially during COVID-19 pandemic, field of epidemiology seen substantial growth in use projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at same time, allowing comparisons that can guide choice intervention, prioritization research topics, or public communication. The design is central their ability inform questions. this paper, we draw fields analysis statistical experiments propose a framework epidemiology, also other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, situational awareness, horizon scanning, forecasting, value information) discuss those structure scenarios. aspects content process design, broadly all settings specifically multi-model ensemble As illustrative case study, examine first 17 rounds from U.S. Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect future advancements could improve epidemiological settings.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
8Epidemics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 46, С. 100738 - 100738
Опубликована: Дек. 29, 2023
Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of burden in US to guide pandemic planning decision-making context high uncertainty. This effort was born out an attempt coordinate, synthesize effectively use unprecedented amount predictive modeling that emerged throughout pandemic. Here we describe history this massive collective research effort, process convening maintaining open hub active over multiple years, provide a blueprint for future efforts. We detail generating 17 rounds scenarios at different stages pandemic, disseminating results public health community lay public. also highlight how SMH expanded generate influenza during 2022-23 season. identify key impacts on draw lessons improve collaborative efforts, scenario projections, interface between models policy.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
13medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Окт. 12, 2023
Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers scientists. In the past decade, especially during COVID-19 pandemic, field of epidemiology seen substantial growth in use projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at same time, allowing comparisons that can guide choice intervention, prioritization research topics, or public communication. The design is central their ability inform questions. this paper, we draw fields analysis statistical experiments propose a framework epidemiology, also other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, value information, situational awareness, horizon scanning, forecasting) discuss those structure scenarios. aspects content process design, broadly all settings specifically multi-model ensemble As illustrative case study, examine first 17 rounds from U.S. Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect future advancements could improve epidemiological settings.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
5Epidemics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 48, С. 100788 - 100788
Опубликована: Авг. 24, 2024
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
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