Using grey Gompertz model to explore the carbon emission and its peak in 16 provinces of China

Energy and Buildings, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 277, С. 112545 - 112545

Опубликована: Окт. 8, 2022

Язык: Английский

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The United States Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: A Comprehensive Forecast Using a Regression Model

Sustainability, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(10), С. 7932 - 7932

Опубликована: Май 12, 2023

The Earth’s climate change, colloquially known as global warming, is detrimental to life across the globe. most significant contributor greenhouse gas (GHG) effect carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. In United States (US) economy, major benefactor of CO2 emissions energy sector, with top contribution coming from fossil fuels. estimated 2020 emission was 5981 million metric tons, despite a dramatic reduction in trendline compared year 2019. An ultimatum for consumption rises fiscal development, growing population, and technological advancements. Energy use GHG are inclined upward, provoking an unwholesome nation. This paper studies (i) principal sources emission, (ii) inclination such sources, (iii) trends drivers emissions, (iv) low development footprint, (v) diverse US projects reducing challenges deploying them. We have forecasted fuels 2025 2050 results using MAPE calculate mean percentage error. show high accuracy, suggesting probable approaches reduce further measures through capture sequestration, help improved mitigations

Язык: Английский

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Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting of the Energy Consumed by the Residential and Commercial Sectors in the United States Based on a Hybrid CNN-BiLSTM Model

Sustainability, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(3), С. 1895 - 1895

Опубликована: Янв. 19, 2023

COVID-19 has continuously influenced energy security and caused an enormous impact on human life social activities due to the stay-at-home orders. After Omicron wave, economy system are gradually recovering, but uncertainty remains virus mutations that could arise. Accurate forecasting of consumed by residential commercial sectors is challenging for efficient emergency management policy-making. Affected geographical location long-term evolution, time series prominent temporal spatial characteristics. A hybrid model (CNN-BiLSTM) based a convolution neural network (CNN) bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) proposed extract features, where features captured CNN layer, extracted BiLSTM layer. Then, recursive multi-step ahead strategy designed forecasting, grid search employed tune hyperparameters. Four cases 24-step in United States given evaluate performance model, comparison with 4 deep learning models 6 popular machine 12 evaluation metrics. Results show CNN-BiLSTM outperforms all other four cases, MAPEs ranging from 4.0034% 5.4774%, improved 0.1252% 49.1410%, compared models, which also about 5 times lower than 5.9559% average. It evident prediction accuracy great potential sectors.

Язык: Английский

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Emission forecasting from open burning of crop straw and policy analysis: The case for China

Energy Reports, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 9, С. 5659 - 5669

Опубликована: Май 15, 2023

The open burning of crop straw releases greenhouse and harmful gases, pollutants, which hinder the reduction carbon emissions attainment environmental protection commitments in China. In this study, based on fractional discrete grey model (FDGM (1,1)) new information priority (NIPDGM (1,1)), an alternative weighted hybrid (WHDGM coupled with a particle swarm optimization algorithm was developed to forecast total production, quantity burning, results have shown that proposed WHDGM (1,1) had highest simulation accuracy compared NIPDGM FDGM (1,1). Based (1,1), predictions for annual induced CO, CO2, NOx, PM2.5 are conducted, respectively. By 2025, production will increase by 10.5% 7.2%, Relevant be augmented 7.4%, 7.7%, 5.6%, 9.6%, Countermeasures controlling relevant policy suggestions been discussed. This study offers practical insights guidance strategic control therefore, ensuring achievement neutrality supporting commitment.

Язык: Английский

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A novel damped conformable fractional grey Bernoulli model and its applications in energy prediction with uncertainties

Applied Mathematical Modelling, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 130, С. 94 - 118

Опубликована: Март 6, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Forecasting hospital outpatient volume using an optimized medical two-stage hybrid grey model

Grey Systems Theory and Application, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(4), С. 671 - 707

Опубликована: Май 28, 2024

Purpose Forecasting outpatient volume during a significant security crisis can provide reasonable decision-making references for hospital managers to prevent sudden outbreaks and dispatch medical resources on time. Based the background of standard operation Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) periods, this paper constructs hybrid grey model forecast foresight decision support decision-makers. Design/methodology/approach This proposes an improved two stages. In non-COVID-19 stage, Aquila Optimizer (AO) is selected optimize modeling parameters. Fourier correction applied revise stochastic disturbance. COVID-19 adds impact factor improve forecasting results based dummy variables. The cycle variables modifies factor. Findings tests large Chinese in Jiangsu. fitting MAPE 2.48%, RMSE 16463.69 training group. test 1.91%, 9354.93 both groups are better than those comparative models. Originality/value two-stage solve traditional hospitals' seasonal future policy formulation large-scale epidemics.

Язык: Английский

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Multi-Factorial Complex Effects Analysis of Energy Consumption Time Series with the Novel Nonlinear Grey Interaction Model

Computational Economics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 13, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Forecasting Renewable Energy Consumption Using a Novel Fractional Grey Reverse Accumulation Model

Systems, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13(1), С. 51 - 51

Опубликована: Янв. 15, 2025

The accumulation operation is the most fundamental method for processing data in grey models, playing a decisive role accuracy of model predictions. However, traditional forward does not adhere to principle prioritizing new information. Therefore, we propose novel fractional reverse accumulation, which increases coefficient fully utilize information carried by latest data. This led development model, termed FGRM(1,1). was validated using renewable energy consumption from France, Spain, UK, and Europe, results demonstrated that FGRM(1,1) outperformed other models terms simulation error, prediction comprehensive error. predictions indicated significant growth France moderate robust Europe overall. These findings highlight effectiveness proposed utilizing provide insights into transition emission reduction potential Europe.

Язык: Английский

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Analyzing the Energy Consumption of OECD Countries Through an Interval-Valued Circular Intuitionistic Fuzzy Ahp-Based Cradis Approach

Опубликована: Апрель 3, 2025

The complexity of energy management and policy development is increasing it necessitates the use multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approaches to offer solutions in concern various sources assessment criteria. In this context, an example demonstrated, interval-valued circular intuitionistic fuzzy (IVCIF) AHP-integrated CRADIS methodology, evaluate consumption performance OECD nations. This article discusses six basic criteria concerning primary consumption, hydroelectric wind coal gas oil consumption. There thus a variactivation analysis among analyzed criteria; less critical share stage with criteria, including hydro category renewable sources. As discussed results, criterion weight increases for fossil fuels, whereas given coal, gas, compared other categories. are distinct differences efficiency achieved by countries. Among countries, effective strategies their implications present significant positive results case Canada, Germany, Japan, while United Kingdom France have relatively robust programs fostering practices sustainable living. contrast, dismally performing country must be Hungary, Czech Republic, Greece, Slovakia also not too promising, general profile. study underscores influence IVCIF-AHP&CRADIS approach offset assessing channel data-oriented policymaking agenda. systematic prioritizing respect will permit comprehensive understanding relative strengths weaknesses across result policy-effective outcome policymakers, as well incentive further develop energy. It one reasons certain focused on enhancing sustainability within framework.

Язык: Английский

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Time-delayed fractional grey Bernoulli model with independent fractional orders for fossil energy consumption forecasting

Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 155, С. 110942 - 110942

Опубликована: Май 11, 2025

Язык: Английский

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