Frontiers in Earth Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13

Опубликована: Апрель 17, 2025

Rainfall-induced geological disasters are widespread in the Jianghuai region of China, endangering human lives and socioeconomic activities. Anhui Province, a hotspot for these disasters, warrants thorough analysis temporal spatial distribution their correlation with rainfall effective forecasting warning. This study divides Province into Dabie Mountains, southern other areas based on different background conditions, establishes threshold warning models each. We reconstructed collection disaster precipitation records data from 2008 to 2023. Using binary logistic regression, we analyzed between factors selected optimal attenuation parameters area, determined critical levels. Results show: (1) Landslides collapses main types, mostly occurring high altitude like concentrated rainy season June - July each year; (2) Rainfall is inducer, both single heavy processes sustained influencing occurrence, through combined effect; (3) Effective significantly correlated day previous 8 days rainfall. The coefficients regions 0.60, 0.66, 0.61, respectively. shows that setting fine tuned better than province wide threshold. With 79% forecast accuracy, it can provide scientific basis meteorological risk Province.

Язык: Английский