Development of a Nomogram Model to Predict Mortality in ANCA‐Associated Vasculitis Patients With Pulmonary Involvement DOI Creative Commons

Qifang Guo,

Yijia Shao,

Le Yu

и другие.

The Clinical Respiratory Journal, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 19(4)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Objective Risk assessment and prognosis prediction are crucial for patients with pulmonary involvement in antineutrophil cytoplasimc antibody associated vasculitis (AAV). This study was conducted to create internally validate a prognostic model mortality of AAV that provides individualized risk assessments. Methods A cohort 150 diagnosed at the Second Affiliated Hospital Nanchang University between January 2013 July 2022 included, using data obtained from Chinese Rheumatism Data Center (CRDC). The developed Cox proportional hazards regression least absolute shrinkage selection operator. To model, assessments were discrimination, calibration, through decision curve analysis. Results mean survival time lung 57.0 ± 4.1 months. In final predictive death, four clinical variables included: age baseline, history tumors, baseline hemoglobin level, level percentage forced vital capacity normal predicted value. One‐, two‐, three‐year probability‐predictive nomogram established. Internal validation conducted, yielding Harrell's concordance index (0.884), Brier score 0.088, calibration indicating satisfactory performance. Conclusion We constructed utilizing easily accessible factors, which could accurately forecast future patients.

Язык: Английский

Development of a Nomogram Model to Predict Mortality in ANCA‐Associated Vasculitis Patients With Pulmonary Involvement DOI Creative Commons

Qifang Guo,

Yijia Shao,

Le Yu

и другие.

The Clinical Respiratory Journal, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 19(4)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Objective Risk assessment and prognosis prediction are crucial for patients with pulmonary involvement in antineutrophil cytoplasimc antibody associated vasculitis (AAV). This study was conducted to create internally validate a prognostic model mortality of AAV that provides individualized risk assessments. Methods A cohort 150 diagnosed at the Second Affiliated Hospital Nanchang University between January 2013 July 2022 included, using data obtained from Chinese Rheumatism Data Center (CRDC). The developed Cox proportional hazards regression least absolute shrinkage selection operator. To model, assessments were discrimination, calibration, through decision curve analysis. Results mean survival time lung 57.0 ± 4.1 months. In final predictive death, four clinical variables included: age baseline, history tumors, baseline hemoglobin level, level percentage forced vital capacity normal predicted value. One‐, two‐, three‐year probability‐predictive nomogram established. Internal validation conducted, yielding Harrell's concordance index (0.884), Brier score 0.088, calibration indicating satisfactory performance. Conclusion We constructed utilizing easily accessible factors, which could accurately forecast future patients.

Язык: Английский

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