Foodborne Pathogens and Disease,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Апрель 10, 2025
Foodborne
diseases
(FBDs)
are
contagious,
explosive,
clustered
caused
by
the
ingestion
of
contaminated
foods,
which
represent
huge
economic
and
health
burdens
globally.
Reliably
predicting
risk
trend
FBDs
has
become
a
major
challenge
in
field
public
health.
This
study
aimed
to
design
prediction
model
suitable
for
FBD
risks
using
decomposition-integration
technique.
A
total
28,646
cases
from
surveillance
data
reported
all
sentinel
hospitals
Wuxi
2019
2023
were
included
study.
The
obtained
decomposed
into
multiple
intrinsic
mode
functions
(IMFs)
complete
ensemble
empirical
decomposition
with
adaptive
noise,
then
reconstructed
calculating
sample
entropy.
Finally,
time
dependence
IMFs
was
explored
temporal
convolution
network-long
short-term
memory
(TCN-LSTM)
obtain
results
each
component,
linearly
added
final
results.
Compared
other
models,
our
proposed
significantly
improved
accuracy
risks,
best
average
root
mean
square
error
5.349
absolute
3.819,
demonstrating
at
least
40%
improvement
over
standalone
LSTM.
method
this
can
provide
support
food
safety
management
policy
making
enable
more
accurate
early
warning
FBDs.
The European Journal of Health Economics,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
23(6), С. 917 - 940
Опубликована: Авг. 4, 2021
The
coronavirus
disease
(COVID-19)
is
a
severe,
ongoing,
novel
pandemic
that
emerged
in
Wuhan,
China,
December
2019.
As
of
January
21,
2021,
the
virus
had
infected
approximately
100
million
people,
causing
over
2
deaths.
This
article
analyzed
several
time
series
forecasting
methods
to
predict
spread
COVID-19
during
pandemic's
second
wave
Italy
(the
period
after
October
13,
2020).
autoregressive
moving
average
(ARIMA)
model,
innovations
state
space
models
for
exponential
smoothing
(ETS),
neural
network
autoregression
(NNAR)
trigonometric
model
with
Box-Cox
transformation,
ARMA
errors,
and
trend
seasonal
components
(TBATS),
all
their
feasible
hybrid
combinations
were
employed
forecast
number
patients
hospitalized
mild
symptoms
intensive
care
units
(ICU).
data
February
2020-October
2020
extracted
from
website
Italian
Ministry
Health
(
www.salute.gov.it
).
results
showed
(i)
better
at
capturing
linear,
nonlinear,
patterns,
significantly
outperforming
respective
single
both
series,
(ii)
numbers
COVID-19-related
hospitalizations
ICU
projected
increase
rapidly
mid-November
2020.
According
estimations,
necessary
ordinary
beds
expected
double
10
days
triple
20
days.
These
predictions
consistent
observed
trend,
demonstrating
may
facilitate
public
health
authorities'
decision-making,
especially
short-term.
Informatics in Medicine Unlocked,
Год журнала:
2020,
Номер
20, С. 100420 - 100420
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2020
Epidemiological
models
have
been
used
extensively
to
predict
disease
spread
in
large
populations.
Among
these
models,
Susceptible
Infectious
Exposed
Recovered
(SEIR)
is
considered
be
a
suitable
model
for
COVID-19
predictions.
However,
SEIR
its
classical
form
unable
quantify
the
impact
of
lockdowns.
In
this
work,
we
introduce
variable
system
equations
study
various
degrees
social
distancing
on
disease.
As
case
study,
apply
our
modified
initial
data
available
(till
April
9,
2020)
Kingdom
Saudi
Arabia
(KSA).
Our
analysis
shows
that
with
no
lockdown
around
2.1
million
people
might
get
infected
during
peak
2
months
from
date
was
first
enforced
KSA
(March
25th).
On
other
hand,
Kingdom's
current
strategy
partial
lockdowns,
predicted
number
infections
can
lowered
0.4
by
September
2020.
We
further
demonstrate
stricter
level
curve
effectively
flattened
KSA.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
28(9), С. 11672 - 11682
Опубликована: Янв. 7, 2021
The
outbreak
of
coronavirus
disease
2019
(COVID-19)
has
seriously
affected
the
environment,
ecology,
economy,
society,
and
human
health.
With
global
epidemic
dynamics
becoming
more
serious,
prediction
analysis
confirmed
cases
deaths
COVID-19
become
an
important
task.
We
develop
artificial
neural
network
(ANN)
for
modeling
COVID-19.
data
are
collected
from
January
20
to
November
11,
2020
by
World
Health
Organization
(WHO).
By
introducing
root
mean
square
error
(RMSE),
correlation
coefficient
(R),
absolute
(MAE),
statistical
indicators
model
verified
evaluated.
size
training
test
death
base
employed
in
is
optimized.
best
simulating
performance
with
RMSE,
R,
MAE
realized
using
7
past
days'
as
input
variables
dataset.
And
estimated
R
0.9948
0.9683,
respectively.
Compared
different
algorithms,
experimental
simulation
shows
that
trainbr
algorithm
better
than
other
algorithms
reproducing
amount
deaths.
This
study
ANN
suitable
predicting
future.
Using
model,
we
also
predict
June
5,
2020.
During
period,
new
infected
0.9848,
17,554,
12,229,
respectively;
0.8593,
631.8,
463.7,
predicted
very
close
actual
results
show
continuous
strict
control
measures
should
be
taken
prevent
further
spread
epidemic.
Neural Computing and Applications,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
34(4), С. 3135 - 3149
Опубликована: Окт. 10, 2021
The
COVID-19
pandemic
has
disrupted
the
economy
and
businesses
impacted
all
facets
of
people's
lives.
It
is
critical
to
forecast
number
infected
cases
make
accurate
decisions
on
necessary
measures
control
outbreak.
While
deep
learning
models
have
proved
be
effective
in
this
context,
time
series
augmentation
can
improve
their
performance.
In
paper,
we
use
techniques
create
new
that
take
into
account
characteristics
original
series,
which
then
generate
enough
samples
fit
properly.
proposed
method
applied
context
forecasting
using
three
techniques,
(1)
long
short-term
memory,
(2)
gated
recurrent
units,
(3)
convolutional
neural
network.
terms
symmetric
mean
absolute
percentage
error
root
square
measures,
significantly
improves
performance
memory
networks.
Also,
improvement
average
for
units.
Finally,
present
a
summary
top
model
as
well
visual
representation
actual
forecasted
data
each
country.
IEEE Transactions on Artificial Intelligence,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
4(1), С. 44 - 59
Опубликована: Янв. 11, 2022
The
purpose
of
this
article
is
to
see
how
machine
learning
(ML)
algorithms
and
applications
are
used
in
the
COVID-19
inquiry
for
other
purposes.
available
traditional
methods
international
epidemic
prediction,
researchers
authorities
have
given
more
attention
simple
statistical
epidemiological
methodologies.
inadequacy
absence
medical
testing
diagnosing
identifying
a
solution
one
key
challenges
preventing
spread
COVID-19.
A
few
statistical-based
improvements
being
strengthened
answer
challenge,
resulting
partial
resolution
up
certain
level.
ML
advocated
wide
range
intelligence-based
approaches,
frameworks,
equipment
cope
with
issues
industry.
application
inventive
structure,
such
as
handling
relevant
outbreak
difficulties,
has
been
investigated
article.
major
goal
1)
Examining
impact
data
type
nature,
well
obstacles
processing
2)
Better
grasp
importance
intelligent
approaches
like
pandemic.
3)
development
improved
types
prognosis.
4)
effectiveness
influence
various
strategies
5)
To
target
on
potential
diagnosis
order
motivate
academics
innovate
expand
their
knowledge
research
into
additional
COVID-19-affected
industries.
Applied Sciences,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
13(12), С. 7104 - 7104
Опубликована: Июнь 14, 2023
Stock
indices
are
considered
to
be
an
important
indicator
of
financial
market
volatility
in
various
countries.
Therefore,
the
stock
forecast
is
one
challenging
issues
decrease
uncertainty
future
direction
markets.
In
recent
years,
many
scholars
attempted
use
different
conventional
statistical
and
deep
learning
methods
predict
indices.
However,
non-linear
noise
data
will
usually
cause
stochastic
deterioration
time
lag
results,
resulting
existing
neural
networks
that
do
not
demonstrate
good
prediction
results.
For
this
reason,
we
propose
a
novel
framework
combine
gated
recurrent
unit
(GRU)
network
with
complete
ensemble
empirical
mode
decomposition
adaptive
(CEEMDAN)
better
accuracy,
which
wavelet
threshold
method
especially
used
denoise
high-frequency
noises
sub-signals
exclude
interference
for
predictions.
Firstly,
choose
representative
datasets
collected
from
closing
prices
S&P500
CSI
300
evaluate
proposed
GRU-CEEMDAN–wavelet
model.
Additionally,
compare
improved
model
traditional
ARIMA
several
modified
models
using
gate
structures.
The
result
shows
mean
values
MSE
MAE
GRU
based
on
CEEMDAN–wavelet
smallest
by
significance
analysis.
Overall,
found
our
could
improve
accuracy
alleviates
problem.