Sustainability,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
16(5), С. 2007 - 2007
Опубликована: Фев. 29, 2024
Decomposition
analysis
and
forecasting
of
carbon
emissions
in
manufacturing
are
crucial
for
setting
sustainable
carbon-reduction
targets.
Given
the
varied
carbon-emission
efficiencies
across
sectors,
this
study
applied
Logarithmic
Mean
Divisia
Index
(LMDI)
decomposition
method
to
analyze
drivers
Gansu’s
sector,
encompassing
high,
medium,
low-efficiency
industries,
it
identified
vital
factors
affecting
emissions.
A
localized
Long-range
Energy
Alternatives
Planning
System
(LEAP)
model
Gansu
was
also
developed.
This
includes
six
developmental
scenarios
project
future
The
results
as
follows:
(1)
LMDI
indicates
that
increased
industry
primarily
result
from
economic
growth
less
efficient
sectors
dominance
moderately
ones.
(2)
Under
Optimization
Scenario
6,
a
50.82
×
104
ton
reduction
is
projected
sector
by
2030
compared
2020,
marking
peak.
These
outcomes
provide
valuable
insights
policy
reforms
industry,
aiming
peaking
2030.
