Atmosphere, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(8), С. 918 - 918

Опубликована: Июль 31, 2024

The achievement of dual carbon goals varies significantly across Chinese provinces due to the differences in resource endowments and socioeconomic development levels. These variations impose distinct pressures for transitioning along different paths. Exploration orderly reduction paths each province is, thus, crucial, but current predictions have not adequately integrated provincial plans emission convergence trends. This study combines Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC’s) shared pathways (SSPs) with a dual-layer target-setting approach based trends emissions province’s five-year plans. scalable stochastic impacts by regression population, affluence, technology (STIRPAT) model ridge method were employed identify factors influencing emissions. Carbon peak values timing then predicted under scenarios. results indicate that total are primarily influenced economic level spatial temporal driving factors. ranked from low high following order: SSP1, SSP2, SSP5. Provinces categorized into four tiers their times: early, on-time, delayed, delayed peaking. Under 24 would achieve peaking as scheduled. only 17 time. Among first-tier provinces, Beijing Shanghai five eight years ahead schedule; second-tier Henan, Fujian, Guangdong, Inner Mongolia 2030; third tier before 2035; fourth gradually reach 2050. Policy implications differentiated proposed regions these findings.

Язык: Английский