Prediction of Potential Distribution and Response of Changium smyrnioides to Climate Change Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model

Plants, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 14(5), С. 743 - 743

Опубликована: Фев. 28, 2025

Changium smyrnioides, an endangered herb known for its medicinal roots, contains essential amino acids that are vital human health but cannot be synthesized by the body. However, wild populations of this species have been steadily declining due to combined impacts climate change and anthropogenic activities. In study, we employed optimized MaxEnt model predict potential distribution C. smyrnioides under different scenarios evaluate responses change. Our findings demonstrated achieved optimal performance with a regularization multiplier 0.5 feature combination linear quadratic terms. Among environmental variables, three emerged as most critical factors shaping species’ distribution: elevation, precipitation driest month (bio14), isothermality (bio2/bio7 × 100, bio3). Currently, primary suitable habitats concentrated in Jiangsu Province, estimated 21,135 km² classified highly suitable. The analysis further indicated that, response rising temperatures, is likely shift northeastward across China. Notably, results suggested total area would increase over time projected scenarios. Based on predicted centroid migration habitats, Anhui Province was identified future conservation zone smyrnioides. This region could serve refuge, ensuring long-term survival changing climatic conditions. Overall, study provides key insights into ecological change, offering evidence-based guidance development effective strategies aimed at safeguarding herb.

Язык: Английский

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Study on the Distribution Range and Influencing Factors of Salix oritrepha Schneid. and Picea crassifolia Kom. in the Watershed of the Yellow River Under Future Climate Models

Forests, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(3), С. 448 - 448

Опубликована: Март 2, 2025

The watershed of the Yellow River is an important water conservation area in Basin. Its fragile ecological environment, climate change and unreasonable human activities have led to continuous degradation plant community structure watershed. This study only considers environmental factors, based on MaxEnt, Garp other niche models spatial-temporal analysis methods such as Mess MoD analysis, explore suitable areas Salix oritrepha Schneid. (First published C.S.Sargent, Pl. Wilson. 3: 113 (1916)) Picea crassifolia Kom. Bot. Mater. Gerb. Glavn. Sada R.S.F.S.R. 4: 177 (1923)) under different emission scenarios future. results show that MaxEnt model has a good simulation effect. In terms spatial distribution, two species are mainly concentrated southeastern part source area. Compared with current period (1970–2000), by 2070, each scenario showed distribution high east low west, obvious expansion trend moving altitude latitude. According MoD, annual average temperature (Bio_1) may be most variable affecting future vegetation types.

Язык: Английский

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Assessment of Mountain Floods Susceptibility and Flood Runoff Simulation in the Upper Reaches of Baishui River Basin, Wen County, China

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

This paper takes the upstream of Baishuijiang River Basin in Wen County, Gansu Province, as study area. By integrating terrain, soil, land cover, and climate data, primary hazard-inducing factors are screened. The MaxEnt ombined with Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm is utilized for mountain flood susceptibility assessment runoff simulation. conclusion obtained follows: (1)From major disaster-inducing area, precipitation (bio14, bio15) temperature (bio2, bio5) greatest impact on to disasters; (2) Predictions risk areas over next four periods (2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100) show that, compared period from 2021 2030, medium high remain generally stable, mainly distributed along both banks River, a slight increasing trend; (3) basin's infiltration capacity, water storage topography, use have significant flow volume, evidenced by sensitivity volume peak SCS Curve Number (CN) Recession Constant. Flood directly proportional Ratio Peak, while inversely it. time only sensitive CN value other parameters indices close 0.

Язык: Английский

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Exploring Habitat Characteristics, Distribution, and Niche Relationships of Asian Horseshoe Crabs: Preserving Living Fossils and Biodiversity

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Horseshoe crabs, recognized as "living fossils" in evolutionary history, have consistently been a focal point of biological research. However, information regarding their habitat attributes, patterns, and niche relationships, particularly for Asian horseshoe remains incomplete. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the characteristics, potential distributions, overlaps similarities, well patterns refugia locations during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) three crab species: Tachypleus tridentatus, Carcinoscorpius rotundicauda, gigas. By employing combination MaxEnt Modeling analysis, we identified water depth distance land common key factors influencing distribution these species. Additionally, different species are affected by other specific environmental factors. For example, T. tridentatus is constrained summer (May-Oct) maximum chlorophyll-a, C. rotundicauda closely related minimum selection gigas significantly wind speed. In terms overlap, highest degree overlap observed between gigas, while lowest. During LGM, were primarily located at estuaries Minjiang Pearl Rivers, whereas both situated near Strait Malacca. provides scientific basis formulating effective conservation management strategies holds significant importance protecting precious maintaining biodiversity.

Язык: Английский

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Prediction of the Potentially Risk Areas for the Invasive Plant <i>Solanum </i><i>aculeatissimum</i> <i>Jacq.</i> in China under the Background of Climate Change Based on MaxEnt Optimization Model

Open Journal of Natural Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13(02), С. 261 - 276

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Caragana versicolor shrub expansion is enhanced by moderate warming but later constrained by climate extremes in the southwestern Tibetan Plateau

Global Ecology and Conservation, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. e03566 - e03566

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Modeling the potential distribution of Hippophae rhamnoides in China under current and future climate scenarios using the biomod2 model

Frontiers in Plant Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16

Опубликована: Апрель 4, 2025

Introduction Hippophae rhamnoides, a temperate species with transcontinental distribution spanning Eurasia, demonstrates preferential establishment in water-limited ecosystems (arid/semi-arid zones), particularly occupying high-elevation niches skeletal soils and high solar flux. This ecologically significant plant, prized for dual ecological provisioning economic services, shows biogeographic concentration China’s northern desertification belts, northwestern Loess Plateau, southwestern montane corridors. Studying the possible areas where H. rhamnoides may be found can offer scientific foundation protection sustainable management of its resources. Methods study utilized biomod2 software to assess an integrated model based on 312 points 23 environmental factors. Furthermore, modeling analysis was conducted examine how geographical changes over time under SSP245 scenario. Results The findings show that is primarily affected by three factors: annual mean temperature, temperature seasonality coldest quarter. Currently, predominantly distributed provinces Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, Hebei, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Sichuan, Qinghai, Ningxia. suitable habitat covers area 212.89×10⁴ km², which represents 22.15% total land area. Within this region, high, medium, low suitability make up 23.15%, 22.66%, 54.20% habitat, respectively. Discussion In future, centroid expected gradually shift northwest, trend increasing west decreasing east. aims provide in-depth exploration influence factors it from perspective. These results are important improving conservation, management, cultivation, propagation while also offering research other valuable plant species.

Язык: Английский

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The influence of climate change on Primula Sect. Crystallophlomis in southwest China

BMC Plant Biology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 25(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 5, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Habitat Suitability Shifts of Eucommia ulmoides in Southwest China Under Climate Change Projections

Biology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 14(4), С. 451 - 451

Опубликована: Апрель 21, 2025

As a Chinese endemic species with dual medicinal–industrial importance, Eucommia ulmoides faces habitat challenges under climate change. Using 21 bioclimatic variables and 704 occurrence records, we modeled current future (2021–2100) distributions via MaxEnt 3.4.4 ArcGIS 10.8. The results indicate the following: (1) optimal habitats cluster in mid-elevation valleys of Daba–Wuling Mountains (Guizhou–Chongqing core); (2) SSP5-8.5 projections suggest 19.2% reduction high-suitability areas by 2081–2100 versus SSP1-2.6; (3) distribution centroids migrate southward both scenarios. Our multi-temporal analysis provides actionable intelligence for ex situ conservation agroforestry planning.

Язык: Английский

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Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological plantations of Camellia sinensis var. assamica: Synergistic effects of climate change and policy constraints in Yunnan, China

Industrial Crops and Products, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 231, С. 121138 - 121138

Опубликована: Май 14, 2025

Язык: Английский

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