Multi‐Scenario Simulation of Land Use Changes and Their Ecological Risk in the Global Largest Inland Arid Urban Agglomeration
Land Degradation and Development,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Март 12, 2025
ABSTRACT
Rapid
global
urbanization
had
significantly
altered
land
use
(LU),
threatening
the
ecology
and
sustainability
of
arid
regions.
Systematic
forward‐looking
analyses
changes
(LUCs)
ecological
risks
in
Asia's
zones,
particularly
urban
agglomeration
on
northern
slope
Tianshan
Mountains
(UANSTM),
remained
limited.
Herein,
LUCs
UANSTM
under
four
scenarios,
including
ecology‐economy
balanced
development
scenario
(EES),
protection
(EPS),
economic
(EDS),
natural
(NDS)
2030,
was
predicted
by
employing
PLUS
model
multi‐objective
programming
(MOP)
model.
Then,
an
evaluation
system
developed
from
dimensions
expansion,
risk,
food
demand,
degradation
to
assess
corresponding
risk
each
case.
The
results
showed
that:
(1)
Under
scenario,
desert
bare
grassland
were
found
be
main
LU
modes
UANSTM,
with
a
significant
increase
cultivated
negligible
change
water
forest;
(2)
area
decreased
NDS
while
areas
grassland,
forest
land,
construction
increased
other
especially
unused
grassland;
(3)
LU‐induced
these
scenarios
similarities,
overall
high
risks.
Among
them,
52.04%
at
relatively
high‐risk
levels,
only
2.97%
low‐risk
levels.
This
study
reveals
diversified
different
thereby
facilitating
individualized
planning
environmental
restoration
UANSTM.
Язык: Английский
A seasonal assessment of urban thermal behavior and its links to land use patterns in Harare, Zimbabwe
Scientific African,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown, С. e02677 - e02677
Опубликована: Март 1, 2025
Язык: Английский
Multi-Scenario Simulation and Assessment of Ecological Security Patterns: A Case Study of Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone
Yuke Song,
Mangen Li,
Linghua Duo
и другие.
Sustainability,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
17(9), С. 4017 - 4017
Опубликована: Апрель 29, 2025
Ecological
security
is
integral
to
national
strategies,
making
the
construction
of
ecological
patterns
essential
for
mitigating
risks.
However,
predictive
research
on
(ESPs)
remains
limited.
This
study
integrates
Patch-generating
Land
Use
Simulation
(PLUS)
model
with
pattern
analysis
provide
scientific
insights
into
spatial
governance
and
optimization
in
Poyang
Lake
Economic
Zone
(PLEEZ).
First,
PLUS
simulated
land
use
changes
2030
under
three
scenarios:
natural
development
(ND),
economic
(ED),
protection
(EP).
Based
these
projections,
were
constructed
using
Integrated
Valuation
Ecosystem
Services
Tradeoffs
(InVEST)
model,
Morphological
Spatial
Pattern
Analysis
(MSPA)
method,
Conefor
2.6,
Minimum
Cumulative
Resistance
(MCR)
resistance
theory.
The
results
indicate:
(1)
19,
18,
21
source
areas
identified
different
scenarios,
covering
6093.16
km2,
5973.21
6702.56
respectively,
9,
8,
10
important
sites,
primarily
north.
(2)
37,
35,
43
corridors
delineated,
exhibiting
a
spiderweb-like
distribution.
(3)
94,
62,
107
pinch
points
116,
121,
104
barrier
detected.
Node
Aggregation
Area
was
as
critical
zone
targeted
restoration.
Finally,
zoning
management
strategy
“Four
Cores,
Two
Zones,
One
Belt”
proposed.
offers
valuable
sustainable
planning
risk
mitigation.
Язык: Английский
Application of Remote Sensing and GIS in Monitoring Forest Cover Changes in Vietnam Based on Natural Zoning
Land,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
14(5), С. 1037 - 1037
Опубликована: Май 9, 2025
Forest
cover
changes
monitoring
in
Vietnam
has
been
conducted
using
remote
sensing
(RS)
and
geographic
information
systems
(GIS).
Given
Vietnam’s
diverse
climate,
this
study
focused
on
the
Thanh
Hoa,
Kon
Tum,
Dong
Nai
provinces
due
to
their
distinct
natural
conditions
forest
structures.
Land
was
classified
into
five
categories:
broadleaf
forests,
mixed
shrubland/grassland/agricultural
land,
non-forested
areas,
water
bodies.
RS
data
processing
performed
Google
Earth
Engine
(GEE),
with
land
classification
via
Random
algorithm.
The
findings
revealed
significant
between
2010
2020.
In
forests
expanded
by
51.15%
(91,159
ha),
while
declined
19.68%
(105,445
ha).
Tum
experienced
reductions
both
(20.05%,
26,685
ha)
(4.06%,
20,501
Meanwhile,
recorded
increases
(29.15%,
23,263
(12.17%,
20,632
study’s
reliability
confirmed
a
Kappa
coefficient
of
0.81–0.89.
To
predict
changes,
two
methods—the
CA-Markov
model
MOLUSCE
module—were
compared.
Results
demonstrated
that
module
achieved
higher
accuracy,
deviations
from
actual
1.61,
1.14,
1.80
for
Nai,
respectively,
whereas
yielded
larger
(8.79,
6.29,
5.03).
Future
projections
2030,
generated
MOLUSCE,
suggest
impacts
agricultural
expansion,
deforestation,
restoration
efforts
area.
This
highlights
advantages
GIS
complex
sustainable
management
Vietnam.
Язык: Английский