Land, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 14(5), С. 969 - 969

Опубликована: Апрель 30, 2025

The accelerating process of global urbanization has substantially reshaped land use patterns, exerting profound influences on the dynamics ecosystem service provision. Effective and adaptive management necessitates quantitative identification analysis spatiotemporal variations in services their underlying driving mechanisms. Using Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration as a case study, this research examines from 2000 to 2020 projects patterns for 2030 under alternative development scenarios. Building upon foundation, study quantifies evolution four key services—Carbon Storage (CS), Water Yield (WY), Habitat Quality (HQ), Soil Retention (SDR)—from 2030, while elucidating differential impacts mechanisms factors these services. findings indicate that: (1) Between 2020, cultivated remained dominant type (47.71%), followed by forestland (21.44%) grassland (16.23%), whereas built-up expanded significantly 8.12% 12.74%; (2) proportion medium-to-high CS areas reached 47.65%, high-value WY increased 4.9%, low-value HQ 4.28%, SDR accounted 84.44%; (3) PLUS model validation yielded Kappa coefficient 86.1%, indicating high simulation accuracy. Scenario-based predictions suggest that an ecological protection scenario, would increase 0.59%, economic decline 2.57%, with expanding 2.04%; (4) slope (X2) was identified factor influencing (q = 0.22), 0.36–0.42), 0.42), mean annual precipitation (X4) played crucial role determining WY. Furthermore, socioeconomic activities, particularly increasing population density, exhibited growing negative impact CS, highlighting intensifying anthropogenic interventions shaping patterns. This unveils spatial heterogeneity context urbanization, offering valuable insights inform regional conservation sustainable policies.

Язык: Английский