Substantial increase in abrupt shifts between drought and flood events in China based on observations and model simulations

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 876, С. 162822 - 162822

Опубликована: Март 14, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Evolution and prediction of drought-flood abrupt alternation events in Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, China

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 869, С. 161707 - 161707

Опубликована: Янв. 20, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Increasing Occurrence of Sudden Turns From Drought to Flood Over China

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 129(3)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2024

Abstract This study focuses on a new compounding concern, the sudden turn from drought to flood (STDF), that is becoming increasingly prominent. investigates long‐term trends and variability of STDFs in China during 1961–2020. The findings indicate are prevalent north northeast China, Yangtze River Delta (YRD). probability being followed by severe approaching 35% northern northeastern China. Since 1961, number has increased at rate average 2.8 events per decade. increase mainly occurred late spring early summer. likelihood significant pluvial also increasing. increasing STDF attributable frequency volatility precipitation. Changes trend more dependent YRD.

Язык: Английский

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Analysis of drought and flood alternation and its driving factors in the Yangtze River Basin under climate change

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 270, С. 106087 - 106087

Опубликована: Фев. 15, 2022

Язык: Английский

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Drought characteristics and causes during summer maize growth period on Huang-Huai-Hai Plain based on daily scale SPEI

Agricultural Water Management, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 280, С. 108198 - 108198

Опубликована: Фев. 10, 2023

Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is an important area for summer maize production in China. The study of drought characteristics during growing period guiding significance preventing and flooding ensuring grain production. Based on daily meteorological data from 1960 to 2020 Plain, indicators were used quantitatively identify conditions period, analyze spatial temporal evolution drought, explore the teleconnection between climate change characteristics. Results showed that most frequent long-lasting occurred sowing-jointing stage ]1960 s, entire plain was basically a drought-prone last 61a. Drought less frequently, short-lived throughout reproductive jointing-flowering, concentrated light zone. frequency flowering-maturation highest growth displayed ' high-low-high three-stage distribution south north, mainly extremely areas. barycenter east-west pattern, moved eastward 1970 2000, displaying south-north pattern jointing-flowering stages. at stages positive correlation with occurrence El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm events, negative ENSO cold events. Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) suitable climatic factor analyzing causes Plain.

Язык: Английский

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Drought-flood abrupt alteration events over China

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 875, С. 162529 - 162529

Опубликована: Март 2, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Projection of drought-flood abrupt alternation in a humid subtropical region under changing climate

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 624, С. 129875 - 129875

Опубликована: Июнь 28, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Dynamics and potential synchronization of regional precipitation concentration and drought-flood abrupt alternation under the influence of reservoir climate

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 42, С. 101147 - 101147

Опубликована: Июнь 23, 2022

Three Gorges Reservoir area, the largest reservoir area in China The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events increase with climate warming, local effects large may also change precipitation structure. Therefore, based on sequence data (TGR) from 1959 to 2019, proposed multi-time-scale mutual information entropy (MTSMIE) method was used reveal cyclic synchronous changes drought-flood abrupt alternation concentration. results demonstrate that (1) spatial distribution concentration index TGR has obvious regional variability. On temporal scale, increased by 5.5% decreased 8.2% after impoundment at head tail TGR, respectively. (2) drought-to-flood (DTF) presents a "more-less" feature. DTF less than before reservoir. However, flood-to-drought (FTD) are opposite. (3) period reliable research monitoring DFAA region is about 15–17 years through MTSMIE method.

Язык: Английский

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Floods and droughts: a multivariate perspective

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 27(13), С. 2479 - 2497

Опубликована: Июль 10, 2023

Abstract. Multivariate or compound hydrological-extreme events such as successive floods, large-scale droughts, consecutive drought-to-flood challenge water management and can be particularly impactful. Still, the multivariate nature of floods droughts is often ignored by studying individual characteristics only, which lead to under- overestimation risk. Studying extremes challenging because variable dependencies they are even less abundant in observational records than univariate extremes. In this review, I discuss different types hydrological their dependencies, including regional affecting multiple locations, spatially connected flood events; occurring close temporal succession, droughts; characterized characteristics, with jointly high peak discharge volume; transitions between extremes, transitions. present strategies describe model assess hazard potential, descriptors distributions return periods, stochastic large-ensemble simulation approaches. The discussed enable a perspective on allows us derive risk estimates for extreme described more one variable.

Язык: Английский

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A novel multi-scale standardized index analyzing monthly to sub-seasonal drought-flood abrupt alternation events in the Yangtze River basin

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 633, С. 130999 - 130999

Опубликована: Март 7, 2024

Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events are often cause severe disasters that affect economic growth and ecological security. Since the current monthly to sub-seasonal drought-flood index (DFAI) has limitations of misjudgments, omissions neglecting speed, this study proposes a novel multi-scale standardized DFAI (MSDFAI) based on definition misjudgment omission rates as well speed. A comparative test spatial–temporal characterization analysis in Yangtze River Basin (YRB) conducted. The results show rate YRB varies between 3 %–181 %, its 0.5 %–45 which is unable find suitable point will satisfy both at same time. speed significant impact level DFAA events, there 30 underestimations during 1962–2022 when only considering intensity. MSDFAI makes conditional judgment whether drought or flood event occurs precipitation (SPI) value, can effectively avoid these misjudgments omissions. Meanwhile, describes more comprehensive manner by introducing factor. spatial pattern with relatively low frequency Poyang Lake basin middle YRB, high upper Han River, lower YRB. inter decadal variability characterized turning 1990 s, increased after s. proposed monitor much comprehensively provide technique support for identification prevention changing environment.

Язык: Английский

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