Abstract.
Meteorological
and
hydrological
hazards
present
challenges
to
people
ecosystems
worldwide,
but
the
limited
length
of
observational
data
means
that
possible
extreme
range
is
not
fully
understood.
Here,
a
large
ensemble
climate
model
combined
with
simple
grid-based
model,
assess
unprecedented
plausible
extremes
in
current
across
England.
Two
case
studies
are
selected—dry
(Summer
2022)
wet
(Autumn
2023)—with
initialised
from
known
conditions
then
run
forward
for
several
months
using
ensemble.
The
modelling
chain
provides
set
events
including
outside
use
observed
data,
lowest
flows
around
28
%
lower
on
average
Summer
2022
drought
study
highest
42
higher
Autumn
2023
flood
study.
temporal
evolution
spatial
dependence
investigated,
potential
time-scale
recovery
normal
chance
persistent
extremes.
Being
able
plan
such
could
help
improve
resilience
water
supply
systems
drought,
risk
management
incident
response.
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
16(1)
Опубликована: Март 10, 2025
Abstract
We
see
unprecedented
weather
causing
widespread
impacts
across
the
world.
In
this
perspective,
we
provide
an
overview
of
methods
that
help
anticipate
hazards
can
contribute
to
stop
being
surprised.
then
discuss
disaster
management
and
climate
adaptation
practices,
their
gaps,
how
may
build
resilience.
stimulate
thinking
about
transformative
as
a
foundation
for
long-term
resilience
weather,
supported
by
incremental
through
upgrading
existing
infrastructure,
reactive
short-term
early
action
response.
Because
in
end,
should
take
responsibility
rather
than
surprised
weather.
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
11(5)
Опубликована: Июль 9, 2024
Abstract
Climate
change
is
interacting
with
water
resource
pressures
to
alter
the
frequency,
severity
and
spatial
extent
of
drought,
which
can
thus
no
longer
be
considered
a
purely
natural
hazard.
Although
particularly
severe
ecological
impacts
drought
have
occurred
in
drylands,
its
effects
on
temperate
ecosystems,
including
rivers,
are
also
considerable.
Extensive
research
spanning
diverse
range
UK
rivers
offers
an
opportunity
place
past
context
intensifying
climate
examine
likely
future
typically
cool,
wet
country.
Here,
manifests
instream
as
deficits
surface
water,
modified
flow
velocities,
and—increasingly—partial
or
complete
drying
previously
perennial
naturally
non‐perennial
reaches.
As
result,
causes
declines
taxonomic
functional
biodiversity
freshwater
communities
microorganisms,
algae,
plants,
invertebrates
fish,
altering
processes
associated
benefits
people.
recovered
quickly
after
previous
droughts,
increase
extremity
may
compromise
recovery
following
events.
The
risk
droughts
that
push
ecosystems
beyond
thresholds
persistent,
species‐poor,
functionally
simplified
states
increasing.
Research
monitoring
needed
enable
timely
identification
approaching
such
inform
interventions
pull
these
back
from
brink.
Management
actions
support
regimes
promote
diversify
habitats,
refuges,
crucial
within
river
they
adapt
changing
world.
This
article
categorized
under:
Water
Life
>
Nature
Freshwater
Ecosystems
Stresses
Pressures
Conservation,
Management,
Awareness
Natural hazards and earth system sciences,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
24(3), С. 1065 - 1078
Опубликована: Март 28, 2024
Abstract.
The
UK
has
experienced
recurring
periods
of
hydrological
droughts
in
the
past,
including
drought
declared
summer
2022.
Seasonal
hindcasts,
consisting
a
large
sample
plausible
weather
sequences,
can
be
used
to
create
storylines
and
add
value
existing
approaches
water
resources
planning.
In
this
study,
drivers
winter
rainfall
Anglian
region
England
are
investigated
using
ECMWF
SEAS5
hindcast
dataset,
which
includes
2850
winters
across
25
ensemble
members
3
lead
times.
Four
clusters
defined
based
on
possible
combinations
various
atmospheric
circulation
indices
(such
as
North
Atlantic
Oscillation,
NAO;
East
Atlantic,
EA,
pattern;
El
Niño–Southern
Oscillation).
Using
2022
case
we
demonstrate
how
representing
alternative
ways
event
could
have
unfolded
explore
worst-case
scenarios
over
2022/23
beyond.
span
range
temperature
response
study
represent
that
happened
2022/23.
River
flow
groundwater
level
simulations
with
show
drier-than-average
characterised
by
predominantly
NAO−/EA−
NAO+/EA−
patterns
resulted
continuation
high
likelihood
below-normal
low
river
flows
all
selected
catchments
boreholes
spring
2023.
Catchments
Norfolk
were
particularly
vulnerable
dry
2023
not
estimated
recover
normal
levels
even
wet
NAO−/EA+
NAO+/EA+
patterns,
due
insufficient
overcome
previous
conditions
slow
nature
groundwater-dominated
catchments.
Through
analysis,
aim
added
approach
during
an
ongoing
event.
Storylines
constructed
way
supplement
traditional
forecasts
outlooks,
order
wider
outcomes.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Янв. 13, 2025
Abstract
Disaster
planning
based
on
historical
events
is
like
driving
forward
while
only
looking
in
the
rear-view
mirror.
To
expand
our
field
of
view,
we
use
a
large
ensemble
weather
simulations
to
characterise
current
risk
extreme
case
study
locations
Southeastern
United
States.
We
find
that
temperature
have
become
more
frequent
between
1981
and
2021,
heavy
precipitation
are
also
wettest
months.
Combining
analysis
people’s
recent
experience
with
rate
change
events,
define
four
quadrants
apply
groups
studies:
Sitting
Ducks”
,
“Recent
Rarity”,
“Living
Memory”,
“Fading
Memory”
.
A
critical
storyline
“
ducks
”:
where
high
increase
most
event
memory
(1981-2021)
has
low
return
period
today’s
climate.
these
potential
for
surprise.
For
example,
Montgomery
County,
Alabama,
since
13
years
climate
2021.
In
places,
offer
unprecedented
synthetic
from
disaster
preparedness
help
people
imagine
unprecedented.
Our
results
not
document
substantial
changes
extremes
States
but
propose
generalizable
framework
using
ensembles
changing
International Journal of Climatology,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Март 23, 2025
ABSTRACT
Multi‐year
droughts
pose
a
significant
threat
to
the
security
of
water
resources,
putting
stress
on
resilience
hydrological,
ecological
and
socioeconomic
systems.
Motivated
by
recent
multi‐year
drought
that
affected
Southwestern
Europe
Italy
from
2021
2023,
here
we
utilise
two
indices—the
Standardised
Precipitation
Evapotranspiration
Index
(SPEI)
(SPI)—to
quantify
temporal
evolution
percentage
Italian
territory
experiencing
conditions
in
period
1901–2023
identify
Widespread
Multi‐Year
Drought
(WMYD)
events,
defined
as
affecting
at
least
30%
Italy.
Seven
WMYD
events
are
identified
using
different
precipitation
datasets:
1921–1922,
1942–1944,
1945–1946,
2006–2008,
2011–2013,
2017–2018
2021–2023.
Correlation
analysis
between
time
series
areas
atmospheric
circulation
indicates
onset
spread
related
specific
phases
winter
North
Atlantic
Oscillation
(NAO),
Scandinavian
Pattern
(SCAND),
East
Atlantic/Western
Russia
(EAWR)
pattern
summer
(EA)
patterns.
Event‐based
these
episodes
reveals
variety
patterns
combinations
four
teleconnection
modes
contribute
persistently
dry
during
both
summer.
This
study
offers
new
insights
into
identification
understanding
meteorological
drivers
serves
first
step
toward
better
impacts
anthropogenic
climate
change
them.
Natural hazards and earth system sciences,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
24(9), С. 2953 - 2970
Опубликована: Сен. 4, 2024
Abstract.
Meteorological
and
hydrological
hazards
present
challenges
to
people
ecosystems
worldwide,
but
the
limited
length
of
observational
data
means
that
possible
extreme
range
is
not
fully
understood.
Here,
a
large
ensemble
climate
model
combined
with
simple
grid-based
assess
unprecedented
plausible
extremes
in
current
across
England.
Two
case
studies
are
selected
–
dry
(summer
2022)
wet
(autumn
2023)
initialised
from
known
conditions
then
run
forward
for
several
months
using
ensemble.
The
modelling
chain
provides
set
events
including
outside
use
observed
data,
lowest
flows
around
28
%
lower
on
average
summer
2022
drought
study
highest
42
higher
autumn
2023
flood
study.
temporal
evolution
spatial
dependence
investigated,
potential
timescale
recovery
normal
levels
chance
persistent
extremes.
Being
able
plan
such
could
help
improve
resilience
water
supply
systems
risk
management
incident
response.
Abstract.
Meteorological
and
hydrological
hazards
present
challenges
to
people
ecosystems
worldwide,
but
the
limited
length
of
observational
data
means
that
possible
extreme
range
is
not
fully
understood.
Here,
a
large
ensemble
climate
model
combined
with
simple
grid-based
model,
assess
unprecedented
plausible
extremes
in
current
across
England.
Two
case
studies
are
selected—dry
(Summer
2022)
wet
(Autumn
2023)—with
initialised
from
known
conditions
then
run
forward
for
several
months
using
ensemble.
The
modelling
chain
provides
set
events
including
outside
use
observed
data,
lowest
flows
around
28
%
lower
on
average
Summer
2022
drought
study
highest
42
higher
Autumn
2023
flood
study.
temporal
evolution
spatial
dependence
investigated,
potential
time-scale
recovery
normal
chance
persistent
extremes.
Being
able
plan
such
could
help
improve
resilience
water
supply
systems
drought,
risk
management
incident
response.
Abstract.
Meteorological
and
hydrological
hazards
present
challenges
to
people
ecosystems
worldwide,
but
the
limited
length
of
observational
data
means
that
possible
extreme
range
is
not
fully
understood.
Here,
a
large
ensemble
climate
model
combined
with
simple
grid-based
model,
assess
unprecedented
plausible
extremes
in
current
across
England.
Two
case
studies
are
selected—dry
(Summer
2022)
wet
(Autumn
2023)—with
initialised
from
known
conditions
then
run
forward
for
several
months
using
ensemble.
The
modelling
chain
provides
set
events
including
outside
use
observed
data,
lowest
flows
around
28
%
lower
on
average
Summer
2022
drought
study
highest
42
higher
Autumn
2023
flood
study.
temporal
evolution
spatial
dependence
investigated,
potential
time-scale
recovery
normal
chance
persistent
extremes.
Being
able
plan
such
could
help
improve
resilience
water
supply
systems
drought,
risk
management
incident
response.
