Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties

Authorea (Authorea), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Май 15, 2024

Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected in total consumer biomass from Fisheries Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain for Ocean, indicating need a region-specific ensemble. A large source uncertainty originates Earth system models (ESMs) used to force FishMIP models, particularly lower trophic level sea ice coverage. To build confidence regional MEMs as ecosystem-based tools changing climate that better account uncertainty, we propose development Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing 2.0 intercomparison initiative. One challenges hampering progress is achieving balance standardised inputs with relevance. As first step, design SOMEME simulation protocol, builds on extends existing framework, stages include: detailed skill forcing variables regions, extension fishing data include whaling, new simulations assess ecological links sea-ice processes candidate MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments urgently needed impacts

Язык: Английский

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The future of the South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands marine protected area in a changing environment: The choice between industrial fisheries, or ecosystem protection

Marine Policy, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 155, С. 105773 - 105773

Опубликована: Июль 18, 2023

South Georgia and the Sandwich Islands (SGSSI) comprise an Overseas Territory of UK. For over two centuries, islands surrounding waters were subject to serial over-exploitation commercially valuable marine species. First seals, then whales, later some species fish harvested virtual economic extinction. Today, exploitation is strictly regulated: through multilateral Convention on Conservation Antarctic Marine Living Resources; commercial whaling moratorium International Whaling Commission; now, increasingly, local sovereign government legislation. Commercial fisheries still operate for three one crustacean, krill. Here, I consider aspects these fisheries, help inform current review SGSSI Protected Area (MPA), highlighting how future management must take into account important ongoing changes in this biodiverse ecosystem. Two issues are paramount importance: recovery baleen whale species; climate change. Both increase uncertainty managers, so that considerations about their implications now be directly included dependent With previously exploited species, others, MPA could managed with additional ecologically-appropriate large no-take areas, commensurate increasing levels ocean protection advocated by a growing number scientists governments. Spatial reflecting habitat use whales prey, krill, would, umbrella protection, also protect other biodiversity integral operation

Язык: Английский

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Whale recovery and the emerging human-wildlife conflict over Antarctic krill

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Сен. 10, 2024

Язык: Английский

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A new dynamic distribution model for Antarctic krill reveals interactions with their environment, predators, and the commercial fishery in the south Scotia Sea region

Limnology and Oceanography, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Abstract The management strategy for the Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba ) fishery is being revised. A key aim to spatially and temporally allocate catches in a manner that minimizes impacts both stock dependent predators. This process requires spatial information on distribution abundance of krill, yet gaps exist an important fishing area surrounding South Orkney Islands south Scotia Sea. To fill this need, we create dynamic model region. We used data from consistent acoustic survey (2011–2020) year‐specific environmental covariates within two‐part hurdle model. successfully captured observed temporal patterns density. found be most included distance shelf break, summer sea ice extent, salinity. northern eastern edges were areas consistently high density displayed strong overlap between intense activity foraging chinstrap penguins. High mean was also linked oceanographic features located Weddell Our suggest years which these closer positive Southern Annular Mode higher densities. findings highlight existing fishery–predator–prey region support hypothesis Sea oceanography may play role transporting into These results will feed next phase fisheries assessment.

Язык: Английский

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Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13(3)

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Abstract Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected in total consumer biomass from Fisheries Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain for Ocean, indicating need a region‐specific ensemble. A large source uncertainty originates Earth system models used to force FishMIP models, particularly lower trophic level sea‐ice coverage. To build confidence regional MEMs as ecosystem‐based tools changing climate that better account uncertainty, we propose development Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing 2.0 intercomparison initiative. One challenges hampering progress is achieving balance standardised inputs with relevance. As first step, design SOMEME simulation protocol, builds on extends existing framework, stages include: detailed skill forcing variables regions, extension fishing data include whaling, new simulations assess ecological links processes candidate MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments urgently needed impacts

Язык: Английский

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Assessing trawls size selectivity in Antarctic krill: the role of sex and maturity stages

Regional Studies in Marine Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 104223 - 104223

Опубликована: Май 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Monitoring Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) distribution in the Southern Ocean: environmental DNA (eDNA) adds to the toolbox

Frontiers in Marine Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 12

Опубликована: Май 19, 2025

Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba Dana) is a key species of the Southern Ocean ecosystem, immensely abundant and targeted by fishery. For their sustainable management, distribution biomass estimates are required, typically achieved through acoustic-trawl surveys. We explore how environmental DNA (eDNA) can contribute to our understanding or habitat distribution. collected eDNA samples filtering five liters seawater per sample in East from surface (5 m depth) seafloor (381–4422 depth, total n = 110). used quantitative PCR measure abundance age, metabarcoding detect any species. This data was compared acoustic, visual trawl detections krill. common largely overlapped with detections. Highest concentrations were detected above swarms, declining increasing distance swarms. Near recent sampling locations, swarms more likely acoustically than near old locations. less concentrated continental slope area south survey area, both for Both methods at great depths (recent eDNA: 4300 m; visual: 3080 m). In data, dominant species, followed Thysanoessa macrura G.O. Sars, which particularly larval stages throughout including swarm recommend inclusion use, difficult-to-access areas, such as under ice benthic habitats.

Язык: Английский

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Antarctic sonobuoy surveys for blue whales from 2006-2021 reveal contemporary distribution, changes over time, and paths to further our understanding of their distribution and biology

Frontiers in Marine Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 11

Опубликована: Апрель 26, 2024

Seven passive acoustic surveys for marine mammal sounds were conducted by deploying sonobuoys along ship tracks during Antarctic voyages spanning years 2006-2021. These included nearly 330° of longitude throughout (south 60°S) and sub-Antarctic (between 50-60°S) latitudes. Here, we summarise the presence calls from critically endangered blue whales ( Balaenoptera musculus intermedia ) detected on all seven these surveys. We describe compare spatial distribution detections three different types whale calls: unit-A, Z-calls, D-calls. Three sets partially overlapped spatially but in years, providing regions (Indian Sector, Dumont d’Urville Sea, Ross Sea) to investigate differences over time call types. The proportion with present was significantly higher more recent 15 combinations regions, type. lower only one (unit A Sea between 2015 vs 2017), not remaining pairwise comparisons. discuss possible explanations observations including: probability detection, behaviour, distribution, abundance. are mutually exclusive cannot yet be resolved without application complex analytical methods collection additional data. Lastly, future work that could help clarify contributions each potential drivers detection. propose continued data collection, new methods, other synergistic their feeding grounds as a basis this species. This provide cost effective holistic means monitoring status after effects 20th century industrial whaling, well responses natural anthropogenic changes main prey, krill, changing climate.

Язык: Английский

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Governance challenges to protect globally important ecosystem services of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Ноя. 7, 2024

Abstract Antarctica and the Southern Ocean (A&SO) has a unique environment that plays an important role in Earth’s life-support systems. It no indigenous human population but hosts around 5000 researchers is visited by more than 100 000 tourists per year. In this paper, we describe biophysical processes create region’s ecosystem services, outlining their related governance systems within Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), show global distribution of service beneficiaries. These services clearly support populations across world are endangered anthropogenic activities, which current place-based ATS not empowered to control. We discuss whether it possible use insights from Elinor Ostrom’s work on managing commons, including her eight core design principles idea Common Asset Trusts, better harness efforts protect ALL services. note many existing arrangements associated with already well-aligned need be expanded globally produced A&SO.

Язык: Английский

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Population changes in a Southern Ocean krill predator point towards regional Antarctic sea ice declines

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Окт. 28, 2024

While foraging, marine predators integrate information about the environment often across wide-ranging oceanic foraging grounds and reflect these in population parameters. One such species, southern right whale (Eubalaena australis; SRW) has shown alterations to behaviour, declines body condition, reduced reproductive rates after 2009 South African population. As capital breeders, changes suggest decreased availability of their main prey at high-latitudes, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba). This study analysed environmental factors affecting for this over past 40 years, finding a notable southward contraction sea ice, 15–30% decline ice concentration, more than two-fold increase primary production metrics 2008. These conditions are less supportive recruitment known SRW grounds. Additionally, marginal zone, concentration two were determined be either regionally significant or marginally predictors calving interval length when using linear model. Findings highlight vulnerability recovering baleen populations climate change show how breeders serve as sentinels ecosystem regions that difficult costly study.

Язык: Английский

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