Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra region DOI Creative Commons
Ebenezer K. Siabi, Edward A. Awafo, Amos T. Kabo-Bah

и другие.

Discover Sustainability, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5(1)

Опубликована: Июль 29, 2024

Abstract Climate change leading to extremes in the twenty-first century is more evident megacities across world, especially West Africa. The Greater Accra region one of most populated regions As a result, has become susceptible climate such as floods, heatwaves, and droughts. study employed Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models simulating extreme indices under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) over Africa between 1979 2059 exemplified by region. observed generally weak drought historical period expected intensify SSP585 Accra. For instance, continuous dry days (CDD) reveal an increasing trend SSPs. Similarly, overall projected CDD reveals increase signifying frequent longer future. flood revealed surge intensity duration precipitation events SSPs R99pTOT Rx5days are significantly with intensification SSP245, SSP370, SSP585. A similar been Africa, along Guinean coast. foresees gradual intensifying rise heatwave warming cooling decreasing respectively well particularly within urban centers like Tema. Most African countries observe warm nights cold becoming less frequent. Expected effects future pose potential threats water, food, energy systems trigger recurrent floods droughts findings inform policies nationally determined contribution Paris Agreement address sustainable development goal 11 (Sustainable cities) 13 (Climate action)

Язык: Английский

Flood projections over the White Volta Basin under the shared socioeconomic pathways: an analytical hierarchical approach DOI Creative Commons
Amos T. Kabo-Bah,

Nana Asirifi Cobbina,

Ebenezer K. Siabi

и другие.

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 7

Опубликована: Апрель 30, 2025

Introduction Flooding in Ghana’s White Volta Basin poses significant environmental and socioeconomic challenges, driven by both natural anthropogenic factors. This study assesses future flood vulnerabilities under climate change scenarios to inform disaster risk reduction sustainable land-use planning. Methods Precipitation data from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) were bias-corrected using CMhyd software, validated against observational (1960–2015) ERA5 reanalysis (1981–2020). Flood susceptibility maps generated via the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), integrating ten geospatial parameters (elevation, slope, drainage density, soil type, etc.). Model performance was evaluated R² (90–100%), NSE (0.384–1), RMSE (789–10,967 mm), PBIAS (−7.2% 26%). Results Projections indicate a decline precipitation across all SSPs, with sharpest SSP5-8.5. Tamale is expected receive highest rainfall, while Garu experiences lowest. mapping classified basin into five zones: very high (12.09%), (22.56%), moderate (24.38%), low (24.36%), (16.64%). Future show reductions high-risk areas, particularly SSP5-8.5 (−12.21% high, −3.12% high). validation achieved an AUC of 0.795, confirming robust predictive accuracy. Discussion The findings highlight critical impact declining on susceptibility, emphasizing need for adaptive strategies water resource management infrastructure integration AHP-GIS provides scalable framework assessment, aligning National Change Adaptation Strategy Sendai Framework.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra region DOI Creative Commons
Ebenezer K. Siabi, Edward A. Awafo, Amos T. Kabo-Bah

и другие.

Discover Sustainability, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5(1)

Опубликована: Июль 29, 2024

Abstract Climate change leading to extremes in the twenty-first century is more evident megacities across world, especially West Africa. The Greater Accra region one of most populated regions As a result, has become susceptible climate such as floods, heatwaves, and droughts. study employed Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models simulating extreme indices under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) over Africa between 1979 2059 exemplified by region. observed generally weak drought historical period expected intensify SSP585 Accra. For instance, continuous dry days (CDD) reveal an increasing trend SSPs. Similarly, overall projected CDD reveals increase signifying frequent longer future. flood revealed surge intensity duration precipitation events SSPs R99pTOT Rx5days are significantly with intensification SSP245, SSP370, SSP585. A similar been Africa, along Guinean coast. foresees gradual intensifying rise heatwave warming cooling decreasing respectively well particularly within urban centers like Tema. Most African countries observe warm nights cold becoming less frequent. Expected effects future pose potential threats water, food, energy systems trigger recurrent floods droughts findings inform policies nationally determined contribution Paris Agreement address sustainable development goal 11 (Sustainable cities) 13 (Climate action)

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

2