The
Altai
Mountains
region,
characterized
by
its
unique
biodiversity
and
significant
ecological
value,
is
increasingly
under
pressure
from
anthropogenic
activities
climate
change.
This
study
investigates
the
spatial
temporal
dynamics
of
forest
grassland
ecosystems
in
National
Park
Candidate
Area
2000
to
2020,
proposes
a
comprehensive
framework
for
conservation
management
national
parks.
Through
detailed
analysis
land
cover
changes,
we
observed
expansion
13.65%
degradation
11.69%.
Rapid
occurred
before
2010,
followed
accelerated
after
that,
with
2010
identified
as
critical
turning
point.
Our
highlights
role
key
drivers,
such
soil
type,
elevation,
cropland
expansion,
human
activities,
shaping
these
ecosystems.
Using
Geodetector
propensity
score
matching
methods,
evaluated
effectiveness
existing
protected
areas
mitigating
loss.
While
effectively
contributed
restoration,
they
were
less
successful
preventing
decline,
underscoring
need
integrated
approaches.
findings
this
provide
insights
into
ecosystem
effectiveness,
offering
valuable
guidance
establishment
national-park-type
broader
regional
efforts.
Research Square (Research Square),
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Март 4, 2025
Abstract
Afforestation
of
abandoned
cropland
represents
a
promising
strategy
for
land-based
climate
change
mitigation,
particularly
in
regions
where
land
resources
additional
afforestation
are
limited.
However,
the
carbon
sequestration
potential
such
remains
largely
unknown.
Here,
we
assess
spatial
distribution
China
and
its
through
incentives,
using
10,818
empirical
data
derived
from
298
peer-reviewed
articles,
multisource
remote
sensing
data,
machine
learning
models.
We
identify
6.03
Mha
that
have
been
undergoing
natural
regeneration
since
early
21st
century.
This
has
to
sequester
an
215.12–218.94
Tg
biomass
15.87–17.64
soil
organic
(SOC)
by
2060,
representing
51.95–53.94%
increase
compared
alone.
Our
results
further
show
benefits
could
offset
47.71–49.57%
government
investments
(approximately
USD
16.254
billion)
cropland.
findings
highlight
significant
on
support
China’s
neutrality
goals,
while
also
offering
cost-benefit
framework
guide
policy
decisions.
Abstract
Grain
for
Green
Program
(GFGP),
China's
most
famous
ecological
program,
has
become
the
main
driver
of
carbon
sink
increases.
However,
potential
effect
still
lacks
scenario‐based
systematic
estimation.
By
backdating
GFGP
increase
in
Loess
Plateau
(LP)
over
past
20
years,
we
forecast
and
reveal
spatial
distribution
contribution
“Double
Carbon
Target”
years
under
three
scenarios.
Our
results
showed
that
places
restored
to
forests
(GFGP‐Forest)
will
always
lead
a
by
(33.62
Tg
C
2000–2020)
0.78–1.09
1.29–2.13
2030
2060,
respectively.
grasslands
(GFGP‐Grassland)
an
2000–2020
(72.52
C),
but
decrease
2060
(0.89–9.95
7.42–11.18
C).
This
conversion
is
due
combination
Net
Primary
Productivity
heterotrophic
respiration
future,
which
indicates
restoration
programs
involved
converting
croplands
into
severely
benefits
potential.
In
summary,
it
essential
correctly
quantify
LP
resulting
from
GFGP,
properly
manage
augment
GFGP‐Forest
avoid
source
GFGP‐Grassland
future.
highlight
hidden
danger
leaking
typical
semi‐arid
region
future
climate‐changing
conditions.
