Hydro-meteorological drought predictions and trend analysis for ungauged watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, under future climate change impact scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Melsew A. Wubneh,

Mikhael G. Alemu,

Dejene Sahlu

и другие.

Journal of Water and Climate Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(11), С. 5458 - 5481

Опубликована: Окт. 24, 2024

ABSTRACT Climate-change risks impact nations and it is essential to model climates investigate potential meteorological hydrological droughts at the selected ungauged watersheds (Gilgel Abay, Gumara, Megech, Ribb). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Reconnaissance Drought (RDI) were used analyze for six- 12-month periods droughts, Streamflow (SDI) was used. All indices studied under near (2020–2049) mid-future (2050–2079) using representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of 4.5 8.5 scenarios. result shows that 18.10% maximum drought (SDI12) frequency occurred all scenarios time-domains except RCP8.5 in near-period. highest annual time-scale (SPI12) regional (RDI12) recorded close intervals 19.83% near-period both scenarios, respectively. spatiotemporal distribution Megech more vulnerable extreme with magnitude SPI6 RDI6 (about 3.5) by 2060 RCP4.5. SDI6 index also indicates Gilgel Abay may experience acute shortly. This study highly significant, particularly climate researchers looking implement climate-adaptation mechanisms Lake Tana sub-basin.

Язык: Английский

Investigation of the meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics in yeşilirmak basin, Türkiye DOI
Mehmet İshak Yüce, Ali AYTEK, Musa Eşit

и другие.

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 156(4)

Опубликована: Март 21, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

4
LULC dynamics and the effects of urban green spaces in cooling and mitigating micro-climate change and urban heat island effects: a case study in Addis Ababa City, Ethiopia DOI Creative Commons

Mulugeta Demisse,

Solomon Hishe,

Kefelegn Getahun

и другие.

Journal of Water and Climate Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(7), С. 3033 - 3055

Опубликована: Апрель 26, 2024

ABSTRACT Land surface temperature (LST) increase and urban heat islands (UHI) are significant issues in development. Urban green spaces crucial combating micro-climate change. This study assesses their effects on cooling mitigating change Addis Ababa using remotely sensed data from Landsat 5 TM (1990), 7 ETM+ (2005), 8 OLI/TIRS (2021). LST was retrieved mono-window algorithms for 7, the split-window algorithm 8. Regression correlation analyses of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were conducted SPSS V23, STATA, R Studio. Results showed a decrease space (UGS) 120.4 km² 1990 to 76.26 2021. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that built-up areas vegetation accounted 92.2% variations. The efficiency (CE) threshold value (TVoE) calculated as 4.5 ± 0.5 hectares. suggests allocating this size effectively reduces effects. Strengthening public participation greening is mitigate change, sustain development, improve quality life. Built-up significantly impact more than water (NDWI), essential land-use planning minimize urbanization impacts.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

11
Analysis of long-term rainfall trend, variability, and drought in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia DOI
Elias Meskelu, Mekonen Ayana,

Dereje Birhanu

и другие.

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 155(9), С. 9029 - 9050

Опубликована: Сен. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

4
Drought Characterization Using Multiple Indices over the Abbay Basin, Ethiopia DOI Open Access
Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda, Béchir Béjaoui, N.H. Farhat

и другие.

Water, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(21), С. 3143 - 3143

Опубликована: Ноя. 3, 2024

Analyzing agricultural and hydrological drought at different timescales is essential for designing adaptation strategies. This study aimed to assess in the Abbay Basin of Ethiopia by using multiple indices, namely standardized precipitation index (SPI), evapotranspiration (SPEI), normalized difference vegetation (NDVI), condition (VCI), severity (DSI). Climate extremes were assessed over between 1981 2022. The results indicate that years 1982 2014 most drought-prone, while year 1988 was wettest Basin. revealed presence extremely dry severely conditions, potentially impacting output region. Agricultural identified during main crop seasons (June September). VCI indicated wet conditions. In 2012, 65% area affected extreme nearly half experienced 2013 DSI occurrence drought, although spatial coverage conditions lower than other indices. 2003, 78.49% moderate whereas severe 20% 2010, about 90% drought. provides valuable insights communities, enabling them mitigate impact on yields utilizing An adequate knowledge policymakers potential effects socioeconomic activities recognize significance implementing climate change measures.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

4
Satellite-Based Soil Moisture Estimation and Evaluation of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Tana Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia DOI

Habtamu Abay Eshetie,

Dejena Sahlu,

Tena Alamirew Agumasie

и другие.

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
SPI-based drought characteristics using CHIRPS over Zambia: 1981–2024 DOI Creative Commons
Charles Bwalya Chisanga,

Edson Nkonde,

Kabwe Harnadih Mubanga

и другие.

All Earth, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 37(1), С. 1 - 19

Опубликована: Март 7, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
INVESTIGATION OF PRECIPITATION DATA OF DİYARBAKIR PROVINCE WITH DIFFERENT TREND ANALYSIS METHODS DOI Open Access
Burak Gül

Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 28(1), С. 350 - 368

Опубликована: Март 3, 2025

Global climate change leads to significant alterations in systems, affecting natural resource management, agriculture, and water security. As these impacts are also felt at the local level, regional analyses crucial. This study analyzes precipitation data from Diyarbakır province between 1970 2022 examine effects of change. Trend were conducted using Mann-Kendall, Sen's Slope, Spearman’s Rho, Innovative Analysis (ITA) methods. The Mann-Kendall test assessed statistical significance trends, while Slope estimated magnitude trends. results indicated no statistically trends on an annual or seasonal basis. However, ITA method revealed decreasing summer totals, alongside increasing spring autumn precipitation. No detected for winter Rho identified a positive relationship total seasons, but observed among seasons themselves. highlights importance contributes preparedness future changes. Continuous monitoring plays critical role making informed strategic decisions, particularly management agricultural policies.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Rainfall, air temperature, and reference evapotranspiration variability and trend and their implication for agroforestry development in the Lake Tana sub-basin of Ethiopia DOI

Antensay Mekoya,

Abebe Tesfaye, Daniel Asfaw Bekele

и другие.

Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Май 6, 2025

Abstract This study investigated the variability and trends of precipitation (P), air temperature, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) in Lake Tana sub-basin Ethiopia from 1980 to 2023, assessing their implications for water resources, agriculture, forestry development. The sub-basin, a crucial ecological socio-economic zone within Upper Blue Nile Basin, is increasingly vulnerable climate change impacts. Using long-term monthly data five sources, including MSWX-Past, MERRA-2, ERA-5, CRUTS4.06, TerraClimate, spatiotemporal were analyzed. Penman-Monteith (FAO56) method was employed estimate ET0, statistical techniques, trend linear regression, CV, standardized anomaly, used assess variability. Results indicate significant increasing annual Kiremt (June-September) rainfall, while Belg (February-May) Bega (October-January) seasons showed non-significant decreasing trends. Air temperatures exhibited significantly trends, with highest March. ET0 values higher northern part during season. Rainfall low but moderate high Bega, indicating unpredictability drier seasons. also examined climatic balance which seasonal Increased rainfall rising temperature & pose challenges sustainable resource management. Enhanced monitoring, integrated management, climate-resilient practices are mitigating impacts

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Assessment of long-term spatiotemporal variability of vegetation drought and its link with teleconnection factors in Ethiopia DOI Creative Commons
Getachew Bayable, Tadele Melese

Natural Hazards Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Июнь 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Comparison of CMIP5 models for drought predictions and trend analysis over Mojo catchment, Awash Basin, Ethiopia DOI Creative Commons

Mikhael G. Alemu,

Melsew A. Wubneh,

Tadege A. Worku

и другие.

Scientific African, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 22, С. e01891 - e01891

Опубликована: Сен. 7, 2023

Climate change's effects on water, such as floods, droughts, ocean acidification, and increasing sea levels, are expected to worsen in the future years. In context of development subject mitigating anticipated drought has become highly important. Droughts African mainland immediately danger hunger, particularly Ethiopia. The creation Global Models (GCMs) analysis impending catastrophic events two finest ways handle this issue. This study analyzes Meteorological Hydrological Drought with a comparison GCM models Mojo Catchment using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance (RDI), Streamflow (SDI) methodologies, under three slice periods at near (2006-2030), mid (2031-2055) far (2056-2080) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) including RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenario data. Overall results show that yearly time scale incidence is lower than biannual both indices. MIROC-MIROC5 MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR conducted for analysis. Under SPI6 (biannual period), 22% highest observed SPI12 frequency decreases. On catchment, there no significant trend increase but meteorological hydrological indices catchment be susceptible moderate range then severely takes place. Model most contributor size droughts station Ejere more venerable compared other stations model. occurrence SDI12 model direct relation anomaly's climate variables (temperature Precipitation). maximum driest variability occurred same (anomalies up -3.7mm) year 2041. Additionally, annual timescale (SDI12) period suspected probability occurrence. Overall, moderately vulnerable drought, SPI-6 high especially periods. It crucial an organization, individuals, academics, water resource professionals, disaster risk management alerting planning projects.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

8