Modelling the potential range of Agrilus planipennis in Europe according to current and future climate conditions

Trees Forests and People, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16, С. 100559 - 100559

Опубликована: Апрель 23, 2024

Agrilus planipennis, the emerald ash borer, is a species native to East Asia that was accidentally introduced North America and Eastern Europe.In America, it responsible for tremendous damage.In Europe, its range has quickly expanded from east where in 2003, threatens of genus Fraxinus.We developed an ensemble modelling approach model potential A. planipennis according current climate conditions four scenarios change: SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0SSP5-8.5 period 2041-2060.We used three algorithms; random forest, boosted regression trees Bayesian additive with occurrence data both invaded ranges.The results indicate most European continent climatically suitable planipennis.In Western northern limit located British Isles southern Scandinavia.The projection models estimates future shows suitability would mostly remain unchanged 2041-2060.During period, expected slightly shrink south, around Mediterranean Basin, expand at limit.Our confirm is, will remain, major threat forest ornamental tree health across Europe.

Язык: Английский

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Model‐based prediction of the potential geographical distribution of the invasive coconut mite, Aceria guerreronis Keifer (Acari: Eriophyidae) based on MaxEnt

Agricultural and Forest Entomology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 24(3), С. 390 - 404

Опубликована: Апрель 12, 2022

Abstract The coconut mite Aceria guerreronis Keifer (Acari: Eriophyidae), is a destructive pest of coconut, causing significant economic losses. However, an effective management strategy requires clear understanding the geographical areas at risk target pest. Therefore, we predicted potential global distribution A. using machine learning algorithm based on maximum entropy. future for covered 2040 and 2060 periods under two climate change emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6 SSP5‐8.5) in context sixth assessment report (AR6) Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change. MaxEnt model predicts habitat suitability outside its present distribution, with suitable habitats Oceania, Asia, Africa, Americas. will decrease from to 2060. highest are those annual average temperature around 25°C, mean precipitation about 1459 mm, seasonality close 64%, variation daytime 8.6°C, 149.7°C. Our findings provide information quarantine measures policymaking, especially where presently still absent.

Язык: Английский

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Established Invasive Tree Species Offer Opportunities for Forest Resilience to Climate Change

Current Forestry Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 10(6), С. 456 - 486

Опубликована: Окт. 14, 2024

Язык: Английский

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A modeling approach to determine substitutive tree species for sweet chestnut in stands affected by ink disease

Journal of Forestry Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 36(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 21, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Mitigating negative effects of EBHSV-infected eastern cottontail invasion in Italy using Z-type control on a four-population system

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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