Regional Environmental Change,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
22(4)
Опубликована: Окт. 21, 2022
Abstract
Climate
change
is
an
important
driver
of
the
spread
apiary
pests
and
honeybee
predators.
These
impact
on
one
economically
most
pollinators
thus
pose
serious
threats
to
functioning
both
natural
ecosystems
crops.
We
investigated
predicted
climate
in
periods
2040–2060
2060–2080
potential
distribution
European
beewolf
Philanthus
triangulum
,
a
specialized
predator.
modelled
its
using
MaxEnt
method
based
contemporary
occurrence
data
bioclimatic
variables.
Our
model
had
overall
good
performance
(AUC
=
0.864)
threshold
probability,
assessed
as
point
with
highest
sum
sensitivity
specificity,
was
at
0.533.
Annual
temperature
range
(69.5%),
mean
warmest
quarter
(12.4%),
precipitation
(7.9%)
were
principal
variables
significantly
affecting
beewolf.
shifts
within
two
scenarios
(optimistic
RPC4.5
pessimistic
RCP8.5)
three
Global
Circulation
Models
(HadGEM2-ES,
IPSL-CM5A-LR,
MPI-SM-LR).
Both
optimistic
showed
that
will
increase
availability
niches.
Losses
niches
only
affect
small
areas
southern
Europe.
Most
anticipated
changes
for
period
already
have
occurred
2040–2060.
The
expansion
suggests
abundance
this
species
should
be
monitored.
Ambrosia
trifida
is
a
kind
of
malignant
invasive
plant,
which
has
very
high
reproductive
and
en-vironmental
adaptability.
Through
strong
resource
acquisition
ability
allelopathy,
it
could
inhibit
the
growth
reproduction
surrounding
plants,
destroy
stability
an
ecosystem.
It
important
to
predict
change
suitable
distribution
area
with
climate
before
implementing
scientific
control
measures.
Based
on
106
data
14
environmental
data,
optimal
parameter
combination
(RM
=
0.1,
FC
LQ)
was
obtained
by
using
MaxEnt
model
optimized
Kuenm
package,
potential
suit-able
areas
in
Northeast
China
under
three
different
scenarios
(RCP2.6,
RCP4.5,
RCP8.5)
emission
intensities
future
(2050,2070)
were
predicted.
The
changes
compared,
relationship
between
intensity
analyzed.
In
general,
will
expand
gradually
future,
its
highly
also
increase
increasing
intensity,
unfavorable
trifida.
Diversity,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
16(6), С. 322 - 322
Опубликована: Май 29, 2024
Ambrosia
trifida
is
an
invasive
alien
plant
species,
which
has
very
high
reproductive
and
environmental
adaptability.
Through
strong
resource
acquisition
ability
allelopathy,
it
could
inhibit
the
growth
reproduction
of
surrounding
plants
destroy
stability
ecosystem.
It
important
to
predict
change
suitable
distribution
area
A.
with
climate
before
implementing
scientific
control
measures.
Based
on
106
data
14
points
data,
optimal
parameter
combination
(RM
=
0.1,
FC
LQ)
was
obtained
using
MaxEnt
(version
3.4.1)
model
optimized
by
Kuenm
package,
thus
potential
areas
in
Northeast
China
under
three
different
scenarios
(RCP2.6,
RCP4.5,
RCP8.5)
emission
intensities
future
(2050,
2070)
were
predicted.
The
changes
compared,
relationship
between
intensity
analyzed.
In
general,
will
expand
gradually
future,
its
highly
also
increase
increasing
intensity,
unfavorable
trifida.
Agronomy,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
13(10), С. 2498 - 2498
Опубликована: Сен. 28, 2023
Palmer
Amaranth
(Amaranthus
palmeri,
Amaranthaceae)
is
one
of
the
most
competitive,
troublesome,
and
noxious
weeds
causing
significant
yield
reductions
in
various
crops.
A.
palmeri
was
also
a
herbicide-resistant
weed
serious
eco-environmental
problem.
Given
that
process
invasion
dynamic,
plamer
may
already
be
quite
severe
where
invasive
species
management
surveys
are
chronically
lacking.
Predicting
potential
habitat
can
help
to
develop
effective
measures
for
early
warning
long-term
detection.
However,
history
distribution
patterns
China
remain
largely
unknown.
Here,
from
1985
2022
were
reconstructed,
then
geographical
predicted
under
current
future
climate
scenarios
(SSP1-2.6,
SSP2-4.5,
SSP5-8.5)
using
optimal
MaxEnt
model
(V
3.4.4)
ArcGIS
10.8.2.
The
mean
AUC
values
0.967.
Under
conditions,
suitable
areas
reached
1,067,000
km2
mainly
distributed
north
central
China.
scenarios,
highly
habitats
Beijing,
Tianjin,
Hebei.
SSP2–4.5,
will
reach
maximum
expand
1,411,100
2060s.
centroid
would
northwestward
extend
scenarios.
human
footprint
index,
temperature
warmest
quarter
(Bio_10),
April
wind
speed
(Wind_4),
seasonality
(standard
deviation
×
100)
(bio_4),
topsoil
gravel
content
(T_gravel),
precipitation
(Bio_18)
key
environmental
variables
affecting
growth
palmeri.
Climate
change
increase
risk
expanding
high
latitudes.
Our
results
developing
strategies
warning,
prevention,
control,
Regional Environmental Change,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
22(4)
Опубликована: Окт. 21, 2022
Abstract
Climate
change
is
an
important
driver
of
the
spread
apiary
pests
and
honeybee
predators.
These
impact
on
one
economically
most
pollinators
thus
pose
serious
threats
to
functioning
both
natural
ecosystems
crops.
We
investigated
predicted
climate
in
periods
2040–2060
2060–2080
potential
distribution
European
beewolf
Philanthus
triangulum
,
a
specialized
predator.
modelled
its
using
MaxEnt
method
based
contemporary
occurrence
data
bioclimatic
variables.
Our
model
had
overall
good
performance
(AUC
=
0.864)
threshold
probability,
assessed
as
point
with
highest
sum
sensitivity
specificity,
was
at
0.533.
Annual
temperature
range
(69.5%),
mean
warmest
quarter
(12.4%),
precipitation
(7.9%)
were
principal
variables
significantly
affecting
beewolf.
shifts
within
two
scenarios
(optimistic
RPC4.5
pessimistic
RCP8.5)
three
Global
Circulation
Models
(HadGEM2-ES,
IPSL-CM5A-LR,
MPI-SM-LR).
Both
optimistic
showed
that
will
increase
availability
niches.
Losses
niches
only
affect
small
areas
southern
Europe.
Most
anticipated
changes
for
period
already
have
occurred
2040–2060.
The
expansion
suggests
abundance
this
species
should
be
monitored.
