There is still time to reconcile forest management with climate-driven declines in habitat suitability for boreal caribou

Global Ecology and Conservation, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 39, С. e02294 - e02294

Опубликована: Сен. 27, 2022

Many boreal populations of woodland caribou in Canada are declining, mainly due to the prevalence anthropogenic disturbances which alter predator-prey dynamics. Climate change is expected exert an additional negative influence on coming decades, but it unclear whether or how human activities and climate will interact habitat suitability for caribou, important these agents be relative each other. In this study, we used LANDIS-II forest landscape model forecast across its distribution within harvestable Québec period 2020–2100, under three increasing radiative forcing scenarios (baseline, Representative Concentration Pathways [RCP] 4.5 8.5), two contrasting harvest (with without harvest). Our simulations revealed that harvesting was dominant agent explaining future variations suitability, although also decreased especially RCP 8.5. Climate-induced decreases mostly originated from increases wildfires burned mature conifer-dominated forests, i.e., high-quality caribou. Habitat by 2100 predicted vary spatially, with northeastern northwestern parts study area supporting better conditions regardless scenarios. We show reducing areas where currently high could help maintain even most intense scenario. results suggest highly-disturbed regions provide low-quality may not improve unless active restoration performed. helps disentangle potential effects management as threats habitat, emphasizing urgency reconciling conservation species at risk Canada.

Язык: Английский

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Climate‐informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou

Ecological Applications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 33(3)

Опубликована: Фев. 8, 2023

Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion the species' range overlaps relatively pristine primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is key concern for conservation boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into cohesive and spatially explicit forecast species-specific demography. We used novel forecasting framework provide climate-sensitive projections demography five monitoring within Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest suitability may increase central southwest regions NWT's Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease southern northwestern driven conversion coniferous deciduous forests. do not project that population growth rates will despite changes suitability. emphasize importance efforts protect restore northern climate while highlighting expected spatial variations are important considerations local people who rely them. An ability reproduce previous work, critical thought when incorporating sources uncertainty, be refine forecasts, derive decisions, improve efficacy species at risk.

Язык: Английский

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Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range recession in Quebec since 1850

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 29(23), С. 6661 - 6678

Опубликована: Сен. 26, 2023

The contraction of species range is one the most significant symptoms biodiversity loss worldwide. While anthropogenic activities and habitat alteration are major threats for several species, climate change should also be considered. For at risk, differentiating effects human disturbances on past current transformations an important step towards improved conservation strategies. We paired historical maps with global atmospheric reanalyses from different sources to assess potential recent observed northward boreal populations woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Quebec (Canada) since 1850. quantified these by highlighting discrepancies between southern limits caribou's (used as references) reconstitutions obtained through hindcasting conditions within which currently found. Hindcasted moved ~105 km north over time under all reanalysis datasets, a trend drastically ~620 reported differences latitudinal shift hindcasted distribution suggest that recession have been only 17% what has 1850 if had disturbance driver. This relatively limited impact reinforces scientific consensus stating mainly caused drivers (i.e. logging, development road network, agriculture, urbanization) modified structure composition forest 160 years, paving way habitat-mediated apparent competition overharvesting. Our results call reconsideration ranges models aiming projecting future distributions, especially endangered species.

Язык: Английский

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A framework to support the identification of critical habitat for wide-ranging species at risk under climate change

Biodiversity and Conservation, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 33(2), С. 603 - 628

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2024

Abstract To recover species at risk, it is necessary to identify habitat critical their recovery. Challenges for with large ranges (thousands of square kilometres) include delineating management unit boundaries within which use differs from other units, along assessing any differences among units in amounts and threats over time. We developed a reproducible framework support identification wide-ranging risk. The (i) reviews distribution life history; (ii) delineates across the range; (iii) evaluates compares current (iv) potential future population size (v) prioritizes areas based on conditions under various scenarios climate change land-use. used Canada Warbler ( Cardellina canadensis ) Wood Thrush Hylocichla mustelina as case studies. Using geographically weighted regression models cluster analysis measure spatial variation model coefficients, we found geographic association only Warbler. predict amount each different then land change, projected that: (1) populations would decrease Alberta but increase Nova Scotia (2) most run Quebec, New Brunswick Scotia, not Ontario. By comparing results prioritization exercises, our supports ways that incorporate land-use projections.

Язык: Английский

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Incorporating mechanism into conservation actions in an age of multiple and emerging threats: The case of boreal caribou

Ecosphere, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(7)

Опубликована: Июль 1, 2023

Abstract Conservation strategies for imperiled species are frequently based on identifying and addressing the probable causes of population decline, an approach known as declining paradigm. Causes, however, linked to demographic outcomes by multiple mechanisms, failing target primary mechanisms can reduce effectiveness efficiency conservation actions. Increasingly, also need consider emerging threats, such climate change. Here, we use boreal caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), a threatened ecotype woodland caribou, case study illustrate how landscape disturbance change each exert negative effects through complex mechanisms. We reviewed extensive literature focused identify assess relative importance putative mechanism. While disturbance‐mediated apparent competition, expansion novel predators, altered predator behavior appear be dictating past current declines has increasing potential strong direct indirect now in future. Predicted may prevent some populations from regaining self‐sustaining status, despite local Our review revealed several knowledge gaps, notably lack clarity spatial extent undisturbed habitat required stable. used our demonstrate mechanistic understanding decline inform habitat‐based caribou. For residing within highly disturbed ranges, restoration is key recommendation strategies, yet large disturbances will require prioritization areas restoration. Maximizing return‐on‐investment mechanistically informed process that targets actions toward underlying decline.

Язык: Английский

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Modelling the potential of forest management to mitigate climate change in Eastern Canadian forests

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(1)

Опубликована: Сен. 4, 2023

Climate change poses a serious risk to sustainable forest management, particularly in boreal forests where natural disturbances have been projected become more severe. In three Quebec management units, biomass carbon storage under various climate and scenarios was over 300 years (2010-2310) with process-based dynamic landscape model (PnET-succession for Landis-II). Several strategies varying their use of partial cuts clear cuts, including business as usual (BAU) (clear-cut applied on than 95% the managed area), were tested compared conservation (no-harvest). Based simulation results at scale, clearcut-based such BAU could result decrease stock by 10 tC ha-1 yr-1 scenario. However, this reduction be offset long term through changes composition, clearcut systems promote expansion trembling aspen white birch. contrast, based 75% or 50% area closer better scenario resulted greater coniferous cover retention. These seemed best maximize stabilize ensure wood supply different scenarios, yet they would require further access appropriate infrastructure. Furthermore, these maintain species compositions age structures similar thus may consequently help achieve ecosystem-based targets. This study presents promising guide Eastern Canada context change.

Язык: Английский

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Faithful pals and familiar locales: differentiating social and spatial site fidelity during reproduction

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 379(1912)

Опубликована: Сен. 4, 2024

Site fidelity—the tendency to reuse familiar spaces—is expected improve fitness. Familiarity with the local environment is particularly crucial when resource demands or predation risk are high. Consequently, site fidelity often peaks during reproduction energetic costs high and offspring vulnerable. For many species, they experience not solely a function of geography but also social environment. Social fidelity, selection for environments, could constitute an independent parallel strategy spatial considering behaviour at spatial–social interface. Using global positioning system locations from caribou across Newfoundland, we tested whether females selected calving sites based on proximity conspecifics, in addition geographical (spatial) fidelity. These strategies were synergistic, alternative, correlated population more variable within individuals. We either form affected reproductive success. failed detect effect success this population. Nevertheless, given association between demonstrated fitness consequences other systems, conspecifics potential benefits these partners provide may be underappreciated component driving This article part theme issue ‘The interface: theoretical empirical integration’.

Язык: Английский

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Differential responses of woodland caribou to fire and forestry across boreal and montane ecosystems—a literature review

Forestry An International Journal of Forest Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 7, 2024

Abstract Ecosystem-based management (EBM) is a landscape-level and planning process that common across North America. A primary tenet of EBM the area intensity anthropogenic disturbance should mimic historical natural focal ecosystem. Biodiversity persist, at least coarse scale, where disturbance, such as forest harvesting, matches disturbance. However, failing some species, particularly those are dependent on old forest. Across many areas Canada, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) declining because direct indirect effects habitat loss fragmentation. This even though often follows principles EBM. We conducted qualitative comparison responses to wildfire considering broad range responses, including selection distribution, forage, movement patterns, population dynamics. found while harvesting both influence caribou, negative generally greater following harvesting. For example, result in habitat, but more likely shift, abandon or contract their response harvest. The literature also suggested stronger harvest when compared wildfire. difference could be residual structure associated with well extensive resource roads necessary for forestry operations. Although there sound theoretical support EBM, practice, implemented, may not effective maintaining ultimately populations caribou.

Язык: Английский

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Spatializing oil and gas subsidies in endangered caribou habitat: Identifying political‐economic drivers of defaunation

Conservation Science and Practice, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 5(10)

Опубликована: Авг. 22, 2023

Abstract Reforming environmentally harmful subsidies is an international priority under the UN Convention on Biological Diversity. Research that links industrial to negative ecological impacts, however, limited. This paper contributes emerging agenda of global “subsidy accountability” research by linking oil and gas decline endangered caribou herds in British Columbia, Canada. While existing concretely attributes activity, including development, we suggest there a need identify political‐economic structures which drive ongoing development habitat, public subsidies. We use government data map wells critical habitat determine how many are run operators receiving provincial fossil fuel “royalty credits”. Ultimately, find 1678, or 54%, located within companies have received benefits from one both BC's largest royalty credit programs. points for further analysis as indirect drivers biodiversity loss scale, well increased emphasis conservation research. It also highlights obstacles implementing appropriate solutions contexts dominated resource extraction.

Язык: Английский

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Evaluating how stand level forest dynamics influence caribou winter range

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

Forest ecosystems and the ecological services they provide are complex dynamic. Disturbance successional processes impact habitat for animals such as caribou (Rangifer tarandus Gmelin 1788, Banfield 1961, 1974) moose (Alces alces L.). The forested winter of Tweedsmuir-Entiako herd has been significantly affected by recent disturbance. In order to evaluate mid- long-term consequences habitat, we require an understanding how attributes change stand structure changes over time. I developed a framework link dynamics model (SORTIE-ND), via linker functions, three ecosystem elements relevant populations: terrestrial forage lichen, forage, vertical cover. first used SORTIE-ND following mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) attack clearcut harvesting. functions refined them with empirical data. These were applied output from project response disturbance agents. addressed questions: 1. What is influence edaphic site on provision time? 2. type 3. How do recovery trajectories differ in disturbances harvest? found that interacted suitability Poor productivity sites most favourable lichen. Higher stands broadleaf provided greatest shrubs. Both harvest improved lichen browse though different types. Interestingly, severe resulted conditions favoured longer than clearcuts. Clearcuts more suitable moose. When operating landscapes forest managers should consider history, distribution types, silviculture systems future desired state services. modelling could be support evaluation alternative management decisions including strategies. This approach also stand- site-specific supply models.

Язык: Английский

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