Modeling Consequences of COVID-19 and Assessing Its Epidemiological Parameters: A System Dynamics Approach DOI Open Access

Ateekh Ur Rehman,

Syed Hammad Mian, Yusuf Siraj Usmani

и другие.

Healthcare, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11(2), С. 260 - 260

Опубликована: Янв. 13, 2023

In 2020, coronavirus (COVID-19) was declared a global pandemic and it remains prevalent today. A necessity to model the transmission of virus has emerged as result COVID-19’s exceedingly contagious characteristics its rapid propagation throughout world. Assessing incidence infection could enable policymakers identify measures halt gauge required capacity healthcare centers. Therefore, modeling susceptibility, exposure, infection, recovery in relation COVID-19 is crucial for adoption interventions by regulatory authorities. Fundamental factors, such rate, mortality must be considered order accurately represent behavior using mathematical models. The difficulty creating identifying real variables. Parameters might vary significantly across models, which can variations simulation results because projections primarily rely on particular dataset. purpose this work establish susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) describing outbreak Kingdom Saudi Arabia (KSA). goal study derive essential epidemiological factors from actual data. System dynamics design experiment approaches were used determine most appropriate combination parameters influence COVID-19. This investigates how variables seasonal amplitude, social awareness impact, waning time adapted correctly estimate scenarios number infected persons daily basis KSA. also utilized ascertain stress (or hospital capacity) affects percentage hospitalizations deaths. Additionally, policies or strategies monitoring restricting Arabia.

Язык: Английский

A robust web-based tool to predict viral shedding in patients with Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants DOI Creative Commons
Weilong Zhang, Xiaoyan Gai,

Ben Wang

и другие.

ERJ Open Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 10(3), С. 00939 - 2023

Опубликована: Апрель 19, 2024

Background Data on viral kinetics and variants affecting the duration of shedding were limited. Our objective was to determine in distinct severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants, including Omicron BA.4/5 BF.7, identify relevant influencing factors. Methods We carried out a longitudinal cohort study at Beijing Xiaotangshan Fangcang shelter hospital from May June 2022 (Omicron BA.4/5) November December BF.7). Nucleocapsid protein (N) open reading frame (ORF) genes considered as target reverse transcription PCR. The daily results cycle threshold (CT), lowest ORF1ab-CT values for days 1–3 post-hospitalisation N-CT (CT3minN) demographic clinical characteristics collected. Results 1433 patients with disease 2019 (COVID-19) recruited hospital, which 278 diagnosed 1155 BF.7. Patients BF.7 infection showed longer shedding. associated age, alcohol use, severity COVID-19 CT3minN. Moreover, nomogram had excellent accuracy predicting Conclusions indicated that period contagiousness than those BA.4/5. affected by variety factors may become an applicable instrument predict Furthermore, we developed new model can accurately COVID-19, created user-friendly website apply this prediction ( https://puh3.shinyapps.io/CVSP_Model/ ).

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1

Early warning COVID-19 outbreak in long-term care facilities using wastewater surveillance: correlation, prediction, and interaction with clinical and serological statuses DOI Creative Commons
Xiaoli Pang,

Bonita E. Lee,

Tiejun Gao

и другие.

The Lancet Microbe, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5(10), С. 100894 - 100894

Опубликована: Авг. 23, 2024

The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the strategic value of wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) SARS-CoV-2. This multisite 28-month-long study focused on WBS for older residents in 12 long-term care facilities (LTCFs) Edmonton (AB, Canada) by assessing relationships between COVID-19, WBS, and serostatus during pandemic.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1

Epidemiological model can forecast COVID-19 outbreaks from wastewater-based surveillance in rural communities. DOI Creative Commons
Tyler Meadows, Erik R. Coats, Solana Narum

и другие.

Water Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 268, С. 122671 - 122671

Опубликована: Окт. 20, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1

Evaluation of wastewater percent positive for assessing epidemic trends - A case study of COVID-19 in Shangrao, China DOI Creative Commons
Jing Wang,

Haifeng Zhou,

Wentao Song

и другие.

Infectious Disease Modelling, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 10(1), С. 325 - 337

Опубликована: Ноя. 16, 2024

This study aims to assess the feasibility of evaluating COVID-19 epidemic trend through monitoring positive percentage SARS-CoV-19 RNA in wastewater.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1

Modeling Consequences of COVID-19 and Assessing Its Epidemiological Parameters: A System Dynamics Approach DOI Open Access

Ateekh Ur Rehman,

Syed Hammad Mian, Yusuf Siraj Usmani

и другие.

Healthcare, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11(2), С. 260 - 260

Опубликована: Янв. 13, 2023

In 2020, coronavirus (COVID-19) was declared a global pandemic and it remains prevalent today. A necessity to model the transmission of virus has emerged as result COVID-19’s exceedingly contagious characteristics its rapid propagation throughout world. Assessing incidence infection could enable policymakers identify measures halt gauge required capacity healthcare centers. Therefore, modeling susceptibility, exposure, infection, recovery in relation COVID-19 is crucial for adoption interventions by regulatory authorities. Fundamental factors, such rate, mortality must be considered order accurately represent behavior using mathematical models. The difficulty creating identifying real variables. Parameters might vary significantly across models, which can variations simulation results because projections primarily rely on particular dataset. purpose this work establish susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) describing outbreak Kingdom Saudi Arabia (KSA). goal study derive essential epidemiological factors from actual data. System dynamics design experiment approaches were used determine most appropriate combination parameters influence COVID-19. This investigates how variables seasonal amplitude, social awareness impact, waning time adapted correctly estimate scenarios number infected persons daily basis KSA. also utilized ascertain stress (or hospital capacity) affects percentage hospitalizations deaths. Additionally, policies or strategies monitoring restricting Arabia.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

3