Assessing
drought
characteristics
and
its
evolution
patterns
in
the
Yangtze
River
Basin
(YRB)
holds
significant
implications
for
understanding
distribution
variability
of
water
resources
basin.
This
study
employs
a
statistical
downscaling
method
based
on
principle
balance
to
enhance
spatial
resolution
terrestrial
storage
anomaly
(TWSA)
estimations
derived
from
Gravity
Recovery
Climate
Experiment
(GRACE)
into
0.1°.
Utilizing
downscaled
data,
we
establish
high-precision
indices
including
Water
Storage
Deficit
(WSD)
Index
(WSDI).
Furthermore,
dispersion
rate
area
(DRDA)
average
WSDI
(WSDIDA)
are
defined
access
extent
impact
severity
drought-affected
areas.
These
indicators
enable
identification
analysis
spatiotemporal
YRB
April
2002
September
2021.
The
main
innovation
results
as
follows.
(1)
Compared
with
PCR-GLOBWB
model,
our
dataset
presents
excellent
applicability
detecting
regional
within
YRB.
majority
test
sampling
points
demonstrated
an
increase
correlation
coefficient
reference
data
by
approximately
0.15-0.2
compared
premise.
(2)
During
period,
experienced
9
basin-wide
events,
most
severe
event
lasting
18
months
total
WSD
nearly
550
mm.
Over
90%
basin
suffered
varying
degrees
this
event.
(3)
In
case
no
trend
observed
WSDIDA,
DRDA
is
shrinking
at
2.54%
per
year.
Drought
conditions
sub-basins
have
been
effectively
alleviated,
evidenced
increasing
WSDI.
(4)
Jinsha
Han
maintain
high
annual
frequency
(ADF),
their
DRDA,
Annual
Duration
(ADD)
Severity
(ADS)
show
trends,
indicating
that
entire
gradually
concentrating
these
two
sub-basins.
Our
new
GRACE
proposed
promising
application
prospects
assessing
local
basin,
providing
robust
support
prevention
scheduling
decision-making
region.
Water Resources Research,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
60(8)
Опубликована: Авг. 1, 2024
Abstract
In
the
recent
past,
Gravity
Recovery
and
Climate
Experiment
(GRACE)
satellite
mission
its
successor
GRACE
Follow‐On
(GRACE‐FO),
have
become
invaluable
tools
for
characterizing
drought
through
measurements
of
Total
Water
Storage
Anomaly
(TWSA).
However,
existing
approaches
often
overlooked
uncertainties
in
TWSA
that
stem
from
orbit
configuration,
background
models,
intrinsic
data
errors.
Here
we
introduce
a
fresh
view
on
this
problem
which
incorporates
data:
Probabilistic
Storage‐based
Drought
Index
(PSDI).
Our
method
leverages
Monte
Carlo
simulations
to
yield
realistic
realizations
stochastic
process
time
series.
These
depict
range
plausible
scenarios
later
are
used
characterize
drought.
This
approach
provides
probability
each
category
instead
selecting
single
final
at
epoch.
We
compared
PSDI
with
deterministic
(Storage‐based
Index,
SDI)
over
major
global
basins.
results
show
leans
toward
an
overestimation
storage‐based
severity.
Furthermore,
scrutinize
performance
across
diverse
hydrologic
events,
spanning
continents
United
States
Europe,
Middle
East,
Southern
Africa,
South
America,
Australia.
case,
emerges
as
reliable
indicator
conditions,
providing
more
comprehensive
perspective
than
conventional
indices.
contrast
common
view,
our
probabilistic
characterization
TWS
drought,
making
it
suited
adaptive
strategies
risk
management.
ABSTRACT
Under
the
backdrop
of
climate
warming,
outbreak
short‐term
extreme
heat
events
can
easily
lead
to
irreversible
changes
in
aquatic
ecosystems.
Delving
into
their
intrinsic
driving
mechanisms
and
nonlinear
characteristics
is
key
preventing
natural
disasters.
This
study,
focusing
on
upper
Yangtze
River
as
research
area,
constructs
a
joint
copula
function
model
analyze
occurrence
probability
return
period
meteorological
events.
Through
bivariate
cross–wavelet
transform
method,
study
explores
multiscale
dynamic
response
relationships
phase
meteorological–hydrothermal
River.
Furthermore,
multifractal
responses
for
was
established.
The
results
indicate
that
high‐heat
tend
occur
more
frequently
severely,
with
duration–kurtosis
likely
coincide
within
2‐year
period,
well
high‐intensity
low‐frequency
duration–severity
occurring
simultaneously.
Overall,
before
2005,
high‐hydrothermal
exhibited
lagging
behind
changes,
which
then
shifted
from
lag
lead.
three
scenarios
change,
exhibit
clear
relationship.
Apart
duration,
severity
kurtosis
all
show
significant
relationships.
