bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Авг. 21, 2024

The consequences of climate change continue to threaten European forests, particularly for species located at the edges their latitudinal and altitudinal ranges. While extensively studied in Central Europe, beech forests require further investigation understand how will affect these ecosystems Mediterranean areas. Proposed silvicultural options increasingly aim sustainable management reduce biotic abiotic stresses enhance forest ecosystems' resistance resilience mechanisms. Process-based models (PBMs) can help us simulate such phenomena capture early stress signals while considering effect different approaches. In this study, we focus on estimating sensitivity two state-of-the-art PBMs by simulating carbon water fluxes stand level assess productivity changes feedback resulting from climatic forcings as well regimes. We applied 3D-CMCC-FEM MEDFATE (C) (H20) sites Italian peninsula, Cansiglio north Mongiana south, under managed vs. unmanaged scenarios current (RCP4.5 RCP8.5). To ensure confidence modes' resuts, preliminary evaluated performance C H2O flux three additional FLUXNET network along a gradient spanning Denmark central Italy. model achieved R2 values 0.83 0.86 with RMSEs 2.53 2.05 H20 fluxes, respectively. showed 0.76 0.69 2.54 3.01. At site northern Italy, both simulated general increase RCP8.5 scenario compared climate. Still, no benefit plots ones, does not have availability limitations, thus, competition is low. southern predict decrease forcing climate; an when specific regimes scenarios. Conversely, are experience first mortality prematurely due (MEDFATE) starvation (3D-CMCC-FEM) conclusion, interventions may be considered viable solution conservation future conditions moister like Cansiglio, drier lie alone.

Язык: Английский