An assessment of climate change impacts on stream phosphorus using a climate model ensemble and Bayesian Belief Networks DOI Creative Commons
Camilla Negri, E. Cowdery, Nick Schurch

и другие.

Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 22, 2024

Abstract Climate-induced changes in precipitation and river flows are expected to cause phosphorus loadings. The uncertainty associated with climate-induced water quality is rarely represented models. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) probabilistic graphical models incorporating their model parameters, making them ideal frameworks for communicating climate risk. This study presents a set of catchment-specific BBNs simulate total reactive (P) concentrations four agricultural catchments under projected change. Six (five plus the ensemble mean) across two objective functions (NSE vs log NSE), Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 8.5), three time periods (the 2020s, 2040s, 2080s) were used create discharge scenarios as inputs. simulated monthly mean P show no obvious trends over or differences between RCP scenarios, essentially replicating results obtained baseline period. However, concentration distributions using outputs from HadGEM2-ES rather than ensemble, showed drier months. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that this difference occurred because sensitive which captured projections but not by mean.

Язык: Английский

Land Drainage Interventions for Climate Change Adaptation: An Overlooked Phenomenon—A Conceptual Case Study from Northern Bohemia, Czech Republic DOI Creative Commons

Joseph C. Cerny,

Petr Fučík, Antonín Zajíček

и другие.

Land, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 14(4), С. 782 - 782

Опубликована: Апрель 5, 2025

This study investigates the often-overlooked phenomenon of land drainage interventions as a means climate change adaptation, focusing on conceptual case from Northern Bohemia, Czech Republic. The intensification agriculture has led to extensive tile systems, which have had significant environmental impacts, including disruption water balance, nutrient leaching, and ecological degradation. With expected alter precipitation patterns increase temperatures, these impacts are likely intensify, leading more frequent droughts pollutant delivery soil bodies. explores options for allocation implementation drainage-related measures such controlled drainage, constructed wetlands, partial elimination mitigate effects, with use readily available archival data well aerial images, current historical soil, use, geomorphological landowner-land user relationships. At two cadastral units local potable resources at hilly Lovečkovicko study, paper proposes conceptual, practical approaches integrating into consolidation processes. Here, eleven sites based cross-intersection above interventions’ criteria were selected, twenty various tentatively designed. categorizes potential proposed three levels: high, medium, low, highlighting feasibility transferability within or similar process.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

An assessment of climate change impacts on stream phosphorus using a climate model ensemble and Bayesian Belief Networks DOI Creative Commons
Camilla Negri, E. Cowdery, Nick Schurch

и другие.

Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 22, 2024

Abstract Climate-induced changes in precipitation and river flows are expected to cause phosphorus loadings. The uncertainty associated with climate-induced water quality is rarely represented models. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) probabilistic graphical models incorporating their model parameters, making them ideal frameworks for communicating climate risk. This study presents a set of catchment-specific BBNs simulate total reactive (P) concentrations four agricultural catchments under projected change. Six (five plus the ensemble mean) across two objective functions (NSE vs log NSE), Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 8.5), three time periods (the 2020s, 2040s, 2080s) were used create discharge scenarios as inputs. simulated monthly mean P show no obvious trends over or differences between RCP scenarios, essentially replicating results obtained baseline period. However, concentration distributions using outputs from HadGEM2-ES rather than ensemble, showed drier months. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that this difference occurred because sensitive which captured projections but not by mean.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1