System Dynamics Simulation of Policy Synergy Effects: How Tradable Green Certificates and Carbon Emission Trading Shape Electricity Market Sustainability DOI Creative Commons
Lihong Li,

Kun Song,

Weimao Xu

и другие.

Applied Sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(8), С. 4086 - 4086

Опубликована: Апрель 8, 2025

With the rapid growth of global energy demand, fossil fuel-dominated electric power industry has led to serious environmental problems. Tradable green certificates (TGC) and carbon emission trading (CET) have become key mechanisms for promoting sustainable development electricity market by serving as market-oriented policy tools. To deeply analyze impact TGC CET on China’s provide a scientific basis policymakers. This study uses system dynamics (SD) methods construct synergy analysis framework CET. It explores mechanism dual incentives market. Firstly, current application status in China was reviewed. Based literature analysis, identify factors that affect Then, deconstructing interaction between policy, an SD model established includes multidimensional feedback such technology, funding, market, dynamic functional relationships were quantified. Finally, Vensim PLE software 7.3.2 used simulate evolution under different scenarios. The research results indicate (1) adjustment quota ratio can change supply demand form price leverage effect, effectively stimulate renewable generation capacity, accelerate low-carbon transformation enterprises; (2) changes cost structure through signals. When cap target tightens, prices quickly rise, leading significant trend reduction market; (3) combinations significantly promote but unreasonable setting parameters trigger risks. Therefore, design should focus flexibility implement appropriate at stages while ensuring smooth operation. innovatively reveals synergistic effect from systems theory perspective. decision-makers formulate plans essential reference value achieving goals stability.

Язык: Английский

System Dynamics Simulation of Policy Synergy Effects: How Tradable Green Certificates and Carbon Emission Trading Shape Electricity Market Sustainability DOI Creative Commons
Lihong Li,

Kun Song,

Weimao Xu

и другие.

Applied Sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(8), С. 4086 - 4086

Опубликована: Апрель 8, 2025

With the rapid growth of global energy demand, fossil fuel-dominated electric power industry has led to serious environmental problems. Tradable green certificates (TGC) and carbon emission trading (CET) have become key mechanisms for promoting sustainable development electricity market by serving as market-oriented policy tools. To deeply analyze impact TGC CET on China’s provide a scientific basis policymakers. This study uses system dynamics (SD) methods construct synergy analysis framework CET. It explores mechanism dual incentives market. Firstly, current application status in China was reviewed. Based literature analysis, identify factors that affect Then, deconstructing interaction between policy, an SD model established includes multidimensional feedback such technology, funding, market, dynamic functional relationships were quantified. Finally, Vensim PLE software 7.3.2 used simulate evolution under different scenarios. The research results indicate (1) adjustment quota ratio can change supply demand form price leverage effect, effectively stimulate renewable generation capacity, accelerate low-carbon transformation enterprises; (2) changes cost structure through signals. When cap target tightens, prices quickly rise, leading significant trend reduction market; (3) combinations significantly promote but unreasonable setting parameters trigger risks. Therefore, design should focus flexibility implement appropriate at stages while ensuring smooth operation. innovatively reveals synergistic effect from systems theory perspective. decision-makers formulate plans essential reference value achieving goals stability.

Язык: Английский

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