Spatiotemporal changes in Universal Thermal Climate Index over South Asia

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 292, С. 106838 - 106838

Опубликована: Июнь 2, 2023

Язык: Английский

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CMIP6 models informed summer human thermal discomfort conditions in Indian regional hotspot

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 2, 2023

The frequency and intensity of extreme thermal stress conditions during summer are expected to increase due climate change. This study examines sixteen models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that have been bias-adjusted using quantile delta mapping method. These provide Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) for seasons between 1979 2010, which regridded a similar spatial grid as ERA5-HEAT (available at 0.25° × resolution) bilinear interpolation. evaluation compares summertime climatology trends CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME) mean UTCI with ERA5 data, focusing on regional hotspot in northwest India (NWI). Pattern Correlation Coefficient (between ERA5) values exceeding 0.9 were employed derive MME UTCI, was subsequently used analyze models.The climatological demonstrates significant over NWI region, ERA5. Both show rising trend NWI. temporal variation analysis reveals experiences higher compared rest India. number days is also increasing major Indian cities according MME. Future projections under different scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) indicate an discomfort throughout twenty-first century. projected rates approximately 0.09 °C per decade, 0.26 0.56 respectively. Assessing near (2022-2059) far (2060-2100) future, all three suggest rise intense heat (UTCI > 38 °C) Notably, predict could reach deadly levels high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario. findings underscore urgency addressing change its potential impacts human well-being socio-economic sectors.

Язык: Английский

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Spatiotemporal characteristics of human thermal comfort across southern Africa: An analysis of the Universal Thermal Climate Index for 1971–2021

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 43(6), С. 2930 - 2952

Опубликована: Янв. 13, 2023

Abstract The 6th Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects increasing thermal‐associated morbidity and mortality under anthropogenically induced warming. Over 100 indices exist to quantify thermal stress, among these, Universal Thermal Index (UTCI) was developed for regional investigations stress influences human health. Although by definition a universal index, current applications are mainly limited Europe. For regions such as Africa, use UTCI has been hampered lack available requisite input variables from ground‐based meteorological stations. To overcome this, gridded dataset, derived ERA5 reanalysis, equivalent temperatures European Centre Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. Using this dataset daily average, minimum maximum values, we explore spatiotemporal patterns changes thereof over annual, seasonal, monthly scales across southern Africa 1979 2021. Across these scales, 9 10 categories were observed, ranging very strong cold extreme heat stress. Spatially, no most widespread mean whereas (minimum) values there wider (cold) incidence, with frequent occurrences moderate (slight stress). Interannually, clear El Niño–Southern Oscillation influence evident during summer, Niño (La Niña) phases extending (reducing) incidences up 13.8% (2.9%). study period, increased at statistically significant rates in many instances, strongest, increases, average (minimum), spring (summer), averaging 0.28 0.29°C·decade −1 (0.23°C·decade ); few experienced decreasing trends. Overall, trend results highlight vulnerable climate changes, thus should be considered decision‐making regarding outdoor activities.

Язык: Английский

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Investigating bi-decadal precipitation changes over the Northwest Himalayas during the pre-monsoon: role of Pacific decadal oscillations

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 62(2), С. 1203 - 1218

Опубликована: Сен. 30, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Heat stress resilience assessment of urban form from physical space dimension: A case study of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Urban Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 55, С. 101905 - 101905

Опубликована: Апрель 4, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Increasing heat waves frequencies over India during post-El Niño spring and early summer seasons

Global and Planetary Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 241, С. 104561 - 104561

Опубликована: Авг. 30, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Spatiotemporal variations of UTCI based discomfort over India

Journal of Earth System Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 133(1)

Опубликована: Март 2, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Spatiotemporal link between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extreme heat, and thermal stress in the Asia–Pacific region

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Март 28, 2024

Abstract Climate change is closely monitored and numerous studies reports increasing air temperature weather extremes across the globe. As a direct consequence of increase global temperature, increased heat stress becoming threat to public health. While most climate epidemiological focus on explain risks, strain can be predicted using comprehensive indices such as Universal Thermal Index (UTCI). The Asia–Pacific region prone thermal high population densities in impose health risk. This study evaluated UTCI trends between 1990 2019 found significant for whole while increases are not pronounced mainly northern part region. These results indicate that even though increasing, risks when assessed may alleviated by other factors. associations El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was seasonal level strongest regional responses were during December-January (DJF) March–May (MAM).

Язык: Английский

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Plan integration for urban extreme heat: Evaluating the impacts of plans at multiple scales in Tokyo, Japan

Urban Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 55, С. 101888 - 101888

Опубликована: Апрель 9, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Identifying influential climatic factors for urban risk studies in rapidly urbanizing Region

Computational Urban Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 4(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 11, 2024

Abstract Severe weather events, such as heat waves, floods, pollution, and health threats, are becoming more common in metropolitan places across the world. Overcrowding, poor infrastructure, fast, unsustainable urbanization some of problems that India faces, country is also susceptible to natural disasters. This research analyzes climatic variables affecting urban hazards Bangalore (also known Bengaluru) via a thorough review. Heat islands, drought were identified 156 qualifying publications using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) method. Contributing considered. City development key changing climate increasing dangers. While long-term variable distribution uneven, warming evident. The report promotes strong planning techniques, comprehensive policies, green areas, sustainable beyond short-term response programs boost resilience. study shows how climate, land use, dangers interconnected. Future studies may benefit by categorizing risk identifying factors.

Язык: Английский

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