Comment on egusphere-2024-820 DOI Creative Commons
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Jean‐Philippe Baudouin, Andrew G. Turner

и другие.

Опубликована: Июнь 19, 2024

Abstract. Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over India, they share some dynamical features extratropical cyclones. WDs most common during boreal winter (December to March), which bring majority of precipitation – both rain and snow Himalaya, well surrounding areas north Pakistan Tibetan Plateau. also hazards such heavy snowfall, hailstorms, fog, cloudbursts, avalanches, frost, coldwaves. In this paper, we review recent understanding development on WDs. Recent studies have collectively made use novel data, analysis techniques, increasing availability high-resolution climate models. This is separated into six main sections structure thermodynamics, impacts, teleconnections, modelling experiments, forecasting at range scales, paleoclimate change each motivated brief discussion accomplishments limitations previous research. A number step changes in synthesised. Use new frameworks tracking algorithms has significantly improved knowledge WD variability, more frequentist approach can now be taken. Improved observation helped quantification water security Himalaya. Convection-permitting models our how interact Himalayas trigger natural hazards. Improvements future experiments explain their impacts Himalaya respond large-scale anthropogenic forcings. We end by summarising unresolved questions outlining key research topics.

Язык: Английский

Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments DOI Creative Commons
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Jean‐Philippe Baudouin, Andrew G. Turner

и другие.

Weather and Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 6(1), С. 43 - 112

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2025

Abstract. Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over western or northern India, they share some dynamical features extratropical cyclones. WDs most common during boreal winter (December to March), which bring majority of precipitation – both rain and snow Himalaya, well surrounding areas north Pakistan, Tibetan Plateau. also hazards such heavy snowfall, hailstorms, fog, cloudbursts, avalanches, frost, cold waves. In this paper, we review recent developments in understanding their impacts. Over last decade, studies have collectively made use novel data, analysis techniques tracking algorithms, increasing availability high-resolution climate models. This is separated into six main sections structure thermodynamics, impacts, teleconnections, modelling experiments, forecasting at range scales, paleoclimate change each motivated brief discussion accomplishments limitations previous research. A number step changes synthesised. Use new frameworks algorithms has significantly improved knowledge WD variability, more frequentist approach can now be taken. Improved observation helped quantification water security Himalaya. Convection-permitting models our how interact Himalaya trigger natural hazards. Improvements future experiments explain impacts respond large-scale anthropogenic forcings. We end by summarising unresolved questions outlining key research topics.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

2
Representing low temperature events and uncovering their dynamics in China between 1979 and 2018 amid climate change DOI

Huixia Chen,

Han Qiu, Virgílio A. Bento

и другие.

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 63(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

2
Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments DOI Creative Commons
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Jean‐Philippe Baudouin, Andrew G. Turner

и другие.

Опубликована: Апрель 4, 2024

Abstract. Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over India, they share some dynamical features extratropical cyclones. WDs most common during boreal winter (December to March), which bring majority of precipitation – both rain and snow Himalaya, well surrounding areas north Pakistan Tibetan Plateau. also hazards such heavy snowfall, hailstorms, fog, cloudbursts, avalanches, frost, coldwaves. In this paper, we review recent understanding development on WDs. Recent studies have collectively made use novel data, analysis techniques, increasing availability high-resolution climate models. This is separated into six main sections structure thermodynamics, impacts, teleconnections, modelling experiments, forecasting at range scales, paleoclimate change each motivated brief discussion accomplishments limitations previous research. A number step changes in synthesised. Use new frameworks tracking algorithms has significantly improved knowledge WD variability, more frequentist approach can now be taken. Improved observation helped quantification water security Himalaya. Convection-permitting models our how interact Himalayas trigger natural hazards. Improvements future experiments explain their impacts Himalaya respond large-scale anthropogenic forcings. We end by summarising unresolved questions outlining key research topics.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

4
Deciphering the Characteristics and Drivers of the Summer Monsoon Precipitation Extremes Over the Indian Himalayas DOI
Rohtash Saini, Raju Attada

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 129(20)

Опубликована: Окт. 23, 2024

Abstract This study investigates the physical processes behind extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Himalayas, notorious for causing frequent floods and significant loss of life property. Due to presence complex terrain, understanding driving factors these EPEs is challenging. Here, we decipher characteristics their responsible occurrence Western Himalayas (WH) period 1979–2020. are defined as exceeding 99th percentile threshold. The WH contributed by both large‐scale (accounting 61%) convective (39%). Moreover, 25.49% this region directly associated with monsoon depressions. distinct upper‐tropospheric gyres flanking WH, along a prominent zonal wave pattern, promotes southward extension trough. intensifies low‐level convergence moisture‐laden winds from adjoining seas, resulting substantial moisture availability EPEs. An omega‐type blocking pattern emerges 4 days before EPEs, facilitating intrusion an extratropical cyclonic circulation. circulation, characterized its slow eastward equatorward movement, leads flux ascending motions, which turn trigger highlights crucial role signals implies that tropical‐extratropical interactions play important Furthermore, shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone strongly linked enhancement intensity budget analysis shows over primarily driven vertical advection, dynamic (thermodynamic) terms explaining 92% (8%) contribution. intensified diabatic heating structure further enhances convection, development deep convection controls local thermodynamics EREs. Lastly, our demonstrated most persistent found be Quasi‐Resonance Amplification, baroclinic waves 5 8 numbers contribute

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

4
Spatio-Temporal Changes in Cold Wave Characteristics Over the Diverse Meteorological Sub-Divisions of India DOI
Saumya Singh, R. K. Mall,

Pradip Kumar Gautam

и другие.

Pure and Applied Geophysics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 4, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Long-term changes in the speed and direction of westerlies in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (MLNH) DOI
Hossein Asakereh, Arman Jahedi

Acta Geophysica, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 23, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
How well do the reanalysis datasets capture hot and cold extremes and their trends in India? DOI Creative Commons
Suman Bhattacharyya, Marwan A. Hassan, S. Sreekesh

и другие.

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 108073 - 108073

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Study of Cold Wave and Cold Stress in the Four Metropolitan Cities of India for the Period 1985–2020 DOI Open Access
Priyankar Kumar, Arun Chakraborty,

S. P. Sharma

и другие.

Journal of Atmospheric Science Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(2), С. 83 - 113

Опубликована: Апрель 30, 2024

Cold waves, cold nights and warm are major threats to human beings during winter due climate change in different parts of India. The analysis these has been studied for four metropolitan cities (Chennai, Mumbai, Kolkata, Delhi) India the period 1985–2020. authors have used 90th 10th percentile threshold identify nights, waves season. degree discomfort stress category identified using Humidity Index (HD), Universal Thermal Climate (UTCI). results indicate that night event Mumbai is ~0.36% higher than both Kolkata Chennai but it ~0.42% Delhi. number wave events Delhi 53.5% study. It also observed from study UTCI possibility slight region 59.36% more other cities. indicates season, dynamic relatively less dynamic.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

2
Increased projected changes in quasi-resonant amplification and persistent summer weather extremes in the latest multimodel climate projections DOI Creative Commons
Sullyandro Oliveira Guimarães, Michael Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf

и другие.

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Сен. 23, 2024

High-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves with zonal wave numbers 6-8 associated the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) have been linked to persistent summer extreme weather events in Northern Hemisphere. QRA is not well-resolved current generation climate models, therefore, necessitating an alternative approach assessing their behavior. Using a previously-developed fingerprint-based semi-empirical approach, we project future occurrence based on index derived from zonally averaged surface temperature field, comparing results CMIP 5 and 6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). There general agreement among most simulations projecting substantial increase index. Larger increases are found CMIP6-SSP5-8.5 (42 46 realizations), 85% models displaying positive trend, as compared 60% CMIP5-RCP8.5 (33 75 reduced spread models. CMIP6-SSP3-7.0 (23 26 realizations) display qualitatively similar behavior CMIP6-SSP5-8.5, indicating under business-as-usual emissions scenarios, hold regardless sensitivity CMIP6. Projected aerosol reductions CMIP6-SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF (5 16 lead halting effect Arctic Amplification during 1st half twenty-first century. Our analysis suggests that anthropogenic warming will likely even more (and extremes) than indicated by past analyses.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

2
Comment on egusphere-2024-820 DOI Creative Commons
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Jean‐Philippe Baudouin, Andrew G. Turner

и другие.

Опубликована: Май 30, 2024

Abstract. Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over India, they share some dynamical features extratropical cyclones. WDs most common during boreal winter (December to March), which bring majority of precipitation – both rain and snow Himalaya, well surrounding areas north Pakistan Tibetan Plateau. also hazards such heavy snowfall, hailstorms, fog, cloudbursts, avalanches, frost, coldwaves. In this paper, we review recent understanding development on WDs. Recent studies have collectively made use novel data, analysis techniques, increasing availability high-resolution climate models. This is separated into six main sections structure thermodynamics, impacts, teleconnections, modelling experiments, forecasting at range scales, paleoclimate change each motivated brief discussion accomplishments limitations previous research. A number step changes in synthesised. Use new frameworks tracking algorithms has significantly improved knowledge WD variability, more frequentist approach can now be taken. Improved observation helped quantification water security Himalaya. Convection-permitting models our how interact Himalayas trigger natural hazards. Improvements future experiments explain their impacts Himalaya respond large-scale anthropogenic forcings. We end by summarising unresolved questions outlining key research topics.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0