Effectiveness of Timely Isolation of Patients with Respiratory Infection in a Children's Hospital: a Simulation Study DOI Creative Commons
N. V. Saperkin,

L. Ju. Poslova,

Mikhail Kirillin

и другие.

Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 24(1), С. 59 - 67

Опубликована: Март 9, 2025

Relevance . Hospital-acquired acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI) are a significant cause of high morbidity in pediatric hospitals, especially departments for small children. To control HCAI, there is still need evidence-based anti-epidemic and preventive measures. Mathematical modeling known to be an attractive approach objectively assessing infection In this study, we demonstrate effectiveness timely isolation the source (i.e. infected individuals) which might revealed large hospital. Materials & Methods We developed agent-based model spread nosocomial assess patients with ARVI. Primary data on incidence ARVI, number beds, frequency multidisciplinary non-infectious children's hospital at regional level were used. The also implements ability agent change department. simulate measure, included simulation execution local algorithm actions by doctor event detection patient ARVI (50% probability non-compliance isolation; almost all sources isolated; 100% decision-making, ideal option). Results maximum absolute daily increase cases observed scenarios where rules isolating violated; here median equaled 32.9 (IQR 32.4-33.4) cases, ranging from 4.0 34.8 cases. With indicator decreased: 50% source, was 5.7 (5-6.5); 90% – 3.1 (2.8-3.6); 2.9 (2.6-3.4) According estimates, when comparing over time, noted their unequal involvement epidemic process wave-like infection. Statistically differences predicted different probabilities revealed. Conclusion used This allowed us correctly describe among hospital, as well our model, took into account various options interaction agents each other. addition, fit importations studied how they could facilitate solid evidence obtained identified healthcare settings, can justify

Язык: Английский

Evaluating the effectiveness of different intervention measures for an outbreak of mycoplasma pneumoniae in hangzhou based on a dynamic model DOI Creative Commons
Ling Xu,

Rongrong Lu,

Chung‐Li Wang

и другие.

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 7, 2025

For Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) infection in schools, the local Center for Disease Control and Prevention recommends nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as case isolation, school closures, suspension of group activities, reinforcement ventilation disinfection influenza outbreaks. However, there is limited evidence supporting evaluating effectiveness these interventions. On basis an outbreak MP occurring a primary Zhejiang Province, susceptible–latent–overt infected–recessive infected–displaced (SEIAR) model was constructed to quantitatively evaluate prevention control effects by simulating intervention measures mentioned above. With no intervention, lasted 143 days, total attack rate (TAR) (TIR) reached 75.78% 95.65%, respectively. The most effective single-intervention strategy (VD), with TAR low 15.81% duration (DO) 61 days. two- or three- combined strategies, including all combinations 90% VD, were more than strategy. In conclusion, SEIAR could effectively simulate epidemic situation effect. MP, earlier comprehensive taken, disinfection, better effect would be.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Effectiveness of Timely Isolation of Patients with Respiratory Infection in a Children's Hospital: a Simulation Study DOI Creative Commons
N. V. Saperkin,

L. Ju. Poslova,

Mikhail Kirillin

и другие.

Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 24(1), С. 59 - 67

Опубликована: Март 9, 2025

Relevance . Hospital-acquired acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI) are a significant cause of high morbidity in pediatric hospitals, especially departments for small children. To control HCAI, there is still need evidence-based anti-epidemic and preventive measures. Mathematical modeling known to be an attractive approach objectively assessing infection In this study, we demonstrate effectiveness timely isolation the source (i.e. infected individuals) which might revealed large hospital. Materials & Methods We developed agent-based model spread nosocomial assess patients with ARVI. Primary data on incidence ARVI, number beds, frequency multidisciplinary non-infectious children's hospital at regional level were used. The also implements ability agent change department. simulate measure, included simulation execution local algorithm actions by doctor event detection patient ARVI (50% probability non-compliance isolation; almost all sources isolated; 100% decision-making, ideal option). Results maximum absolute daily increase cases observed scenarios where rules isolating violated; here median equaled 32.9 (IQR 32.4-33.4) cases, ranging from 4.0 34.8 cases. With indicator decreased: 50% source, was 5.7 (5-6.5); 90% – 3.1 (2.8-3.6); 2.9 (2.6-3.4) According estimates, when comparing over time, noted their unequal involvement epidemic process wave-like infection. Statistically differences predicted different probabilities revealed. Conclusion used This allowed us correctly describe among hospital, as well our model, took into account various options interaction agents each other. addition, fit importations studied how they could facilitate solid evidence obtained identified healthcare settings, can justify

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0