Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Science, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 361(6405), С. 920 - 923

Опубликована: Авг. 30, 2018

Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive transformations occurred in response to warming associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable magnitude projected for next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records examine compositional structural vegetation since glacial period project magnitudes alternative future emission Our results indicate that highly sensitive temperature suggest that, without major reductions greenhouse gas emissions atmosphere, worldwide at risk transformation, with accompanying disruption services impacts biodiversity.

Язык: Английский

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Pollen-based climate reconstruction techniques for late Quaternary studies

Earth-Science Reviews, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 210, С. 103384 - 103384

Опубликована: Сен. 28, 2020

Fossil pollen records are well-established indicators of past vegetation changes. The prevalence across environmental settings including lakes, wetlands, and marine sediments, has made palynology one the most ubiquitous valuable tools for studying climatic change globally decades. A complementary research focus been development statistical techniques to derive quantitative estimates conditions from assemblages. This paper reviews commonly used their rationale seeks provide a resource facilitate inclusion in more palaeoclimatic research. To this end, we first address fundamental aspects fossil data that should be considered when undertaking pollen-based climate reconstructions. We then introduce range currently available, history development, situations which they can best employed. review literature on how define robust calibration datasets, produce high-quality reconstructions, evaluate suggest methods products could developed accessibility global usability. continue foster reconstruction methods, promote reporting standards. When established, such standards 1) enable broader application techniques, especially regions where underused, 2) evaluation reproduction individual structuring them evolving open-science era, optimising use as vital means study variability. also strongly encourage developers users palaeoclimate methodologies make associated programming code publicly will further help disseminate these interested communities.

Язык: Английский

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Situating Ecology as a Big-Data Science: Current Advances, Challenges, and Solutions

BioScience, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 68(8), С. 563 - 576

Опубликована: Май 26, 2018

Ecology has joined a world of big data. Two complementary frameworks define data: data that exceed the analytical capacities individuals or disciplines "Four Vs" axes volume, variety, veracity, and velocity. Variety predominates in ecoinformatics limits scalability ecological science. Volume varies widely. Ecological velocity is low but growing as throughput societal needs increase. big-data systems include situ remote sensors, community resources, biodiversity databases, citizen science, permanent stations. Technological solutions development open code- data-sharing platforms, flexible statistical models can handle heterogeneous sources uncertainty, cloud-computing delivery high-velocity computing to large-volume analytics. Cultural training targeted early current scientific workforce strengthening collaborations among ecologists scientists. The broader goal maximize power, scalability, timeliness insights forecasting.

Язык: Английский

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Global acceleration in rates of vegetation change over the past 18,000 years

Science, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 372(6544), С. 860 - 864

Опубликована: Май 21, 2021

The pace of Holocene vegetation change Although much is known about the rapid environmental changes that have occurred since Industrial Revolution, patterns over preceding millennia been only patchily understood. Using a global set >1100 fossil pollen records, Mottl et al. explored rates past 18,000 years (see Perspective by Overpeck and Breshears). authors show accelerated markedly during Late (∼4.6 to 2.9 thousand ago), even more rapidly than climate-driven associated with end last glacial period. In addition, acceleration began for terrestrial communities as whole, suggesting in turnover two centuries tip deeper trend. Science , abg1685, this issue p. 860 ; see also abi9902, 786

Язык: Английский

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Rapid expansion of northern peatlands and doubled estimate of carbon storage

Nature Geoscience, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 12(11), С. 917 - 921

Опубликована: Окт. 21, 2019

Язык: Английский

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Contributions of Quaternary botany to modern ecology and biogeography

Plant Ecology & Diversity, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 12(3-4), С. 189 - 385

Опубликована: Май 4, 2019

Quaternary (last 2.6 million years) botany involves studying plant megafossils (e.g. tree stumps), macrofossils seeds, leaves), and microfossils pollen, spores) preserved in peat bogs lake sediments. Although have been studied since the late eighteenth century, today is largely dominated by pollen analysis.Quaternary analysis just over 100 years old. It started primarily as a geological tool for correlation, relative dating, climate reconstruction. In 1950 major advance occurred with publication Knut Fægri Johs Iversen of their Text-book Modern Pollen Analysis which provided foundations botanical ecological past dynamics biota biotic systems. The development radiocarbon dating 1950s freed from being dating. As result these developments, became valuable implement long-term ecology biogeography.Selected contributions that has made to biogeography are reviewed. They fall into four general parts: (1) aspects interglacial glacial stages such location nature glacial-stage refugia soil glaciated unglaciated areas; (2) responses environmental change (spreading, extinction, persistence, adaptation); (3) topics potential niches, vegetation, forest dynamics; (4) its application human impact tropical systems, conservation changing world, island palaeoecology, plant–animal interactions, biodiversity patterns time.The future briefly discussed 10 suggestions presented help strengthen it links biogeography. much contribute when used conjunction new approaches ancient-DNA, molecular biomarkers, multi-proxy palaeoecology.

Язык: Английский

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The human dimension of biodiversity changes on islands

Science, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 372(6541), С. 488 - 491

Опубликована: Апрель 29, 2021

Islands are among the last regions on Earth settled and transformed by human activities, they provide replicated model systems for analysis of how people affect ecological functions. By analyzing 27 representative fossil pollen sequences encompassing past 5000 years from islands globally, we quantified rates vegetation compositional change before after arrival. After arrival, turnover accelerate a median factor 11, with faster colonized in 1500 than those earlier. This global anthropogenic acceleration suggests that trajectories continuing change. Strategies biodiversity conservation ecosystem restoration must acknowledge long duration impacts degree to which changes today differ prehuman dynamics.

Язык: Английский

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The archaeology of climate change: The case for cultural diversity

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 118(30)

Опубликована: Июль 22, 2021

Anthropogenic climate change is currently driving environmental transformation on a scale and at pace that exceeds historical records. This represents an undeniably serious challenge to existing social, political, economic systems. Humans have successfully faced similar challenges in the past, however. The archaeological record Earth archives offer rare opportunities observe complex interaction between human systems under different regimes spatial temporal scales. archaeology of offers identify factors promoted resilience past apply knowledge gained present, contributing much-needed, long-term perspective research. One strengths cultural diversity it encompasses, which alternatives solutions proposed from within Western agro-industrial complex, might not be viable cross-culturally. While contemporary discourse focuses importance biodiversity, we highlight as source resilience.

Язык: Английский

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Holocene seasonal temperature evolution and spatial variability over the Northern Hemisphere landmass

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 13(1)

Опубликована: Сен. 10, 2022

The origin of the temperature divergence between Holocene proxy reconstructions and model simulations remains controversial, but it possibly results from potential biases in seasonality or climate sensitivity models. Here we present an extensive dataset seasonal temperatures reconstructed using 1310 pollen records covering Northern Hemisphere landmass. Our indicate that both summer winter warmed early to mid-Holocene (~11-7 ka BP) then cooled thereafter, with significant spatial variability. Strong warming trend occurred mainly Europe, eastern North America northern Asia, which can be generally captured by is likely associated retreat continental ice sheets. subsequent cooling pervasively recorded except for Asia southeastern America, may reflect cross-seasonal impact decreasing insolation through climatic feedbacks, season not well reproduced challenge proposal proxies are main model-data discrepancies highlight critical feedbacks on changes, warrant closer attention future modelling.

Язык: Английский

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Species distribution modelling supports the study of past, present and future biogeographies

Journal of Biogeography, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 50(9), С. 1533 - 1545

Опубликована: Апрель 10, 2023

Abstract Species distribution modelling (SDM), also called environmental or ecological niche modelling, has developed over the last 30 years as a widely used tool in core areas of biogeography including historical biogeography, studies diversity patterns, species ranges, ecoregional classification, conservation assessment and projecting future global change impacts. In 50th anniversary year Journal Biogeography , I reflect on developments illustrate how embedded methodology become all speculate directions field. Challenges to raised this journal 2006 have been addressed significant degree. Those challenges are clarification concept; improved sample design for occurrence data; model parameterization; predictor selection; assessing performance transferability; integrating correlative process models distributions. SDM is used, often conjunction with other evidence, understand past range dynamics, identify patterns drivers biological diversity, limits, define delineate ecoregions, estimate distributions biodiversity elements relation protected status prioritize action, forecast shifts response climate scenarios. Areas progress that may more accessible useful tools include genetically informed community models.

Язык: Английский

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