Sea-Level Rise Induced Multi-Mechanism Flooding and Contribution to Urban Infrastructure Failure

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 10(1)

Опубликована: Март 2, 2020

Abstract Sea-level rise (SLR) induced flooding is often envisioned as solely originating from a direct marine source. This results in alternate sources such groundwater inundation and storm-drain backflow being overlooked studies that inform planning. Here method developed identifies extents infrastructure vulnerabilities are likely to result flood over coming decades. The includes simulation of scenarios consisting high-resolution raster datasets featuring flood-water depth generated by three mechanisms: (1) flooding, (2) backflow, (3) inundation. We apply the Honolulu’s primary urban center based on its high density vulnerable assets present-day tidal issues. Annual exceedance frequencies simulated thresholds established using statistical model considers predicted tide projections SLR. Through assessment multi-mechanism we find approaching decades will feature large increasing percentages flooded area impacted simultaneously mechanisms, which represent most least substantial single-mechanism source, respectively. These illustrate need reevaluate main SLR promote development effective management strategies.

Язык: Английский

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Simulating compound flooding events in a hurricane

Ocean Dynamics, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 70(5), С. 621 - 640

Опубликована: Фев. 27, 2020

Язык: Английский

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Venice as a paradigm of coastal flooding under multiple compound drivers

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 12(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 6, 2022

Abstract Full comprehension of the dynamics hazardous sea levels is indispensable for assessing and managing coastal flood risk, especially under a changing climate. The 12 November 2019 devastating in historical city Venice (Italy) stimulated new investigations flooding problem from different perspectives timescales. Here used as paradigm due to complexity its facing those many other locations worldwide. Spectral decomposition was applied long-term 1872–2019 sea-level time series order investigate relative importance drivers their temporal changes. Moreover, multivariate analysis via copulas provided statistical models correctly understanding reproducing interactions between variables at play. While storm surges are main most extreme events, tides forcings associated with planetary atmospheric waves seasonal inter-annual oscillations predominant determining recurrent nuisance flooding. non-stationary revealed positive trend intensity non-tidal contribution last three decades, which, along rise, contributed an increase frequency floods Venice.

Язык: Английский

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A Framework for Mechanistic Flood Inundation Forecasting at the Metropolitan Scale

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 58(10)

Опубликована: Сен. 19, 2022

Abstract Urban flooding from extreme precipitation and storm surge is a growing threat to cities, detailed forecasts of urban inundation are needed for emergency response. We present mechanistic framework simulate flood over metropolitan‐wide areas at fine resolution (3 m). A dual‐grid shallow‐water model used overcome computational bottlenecks, an application Hurricane Harvey focused on pluvial provides multi‐dimensional assessment predictive skill. hindcast shown peak stage across 41 stream gages with mean absolute error (MAE) 0.63 m, hourly levels 5‐day period median MAE Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) 0.74 m 0.55, respectively. Peak level 228 high water marks (HWMs) were captured 0.69 m. forecast forced by Quantitative Precipitation Forecast data be only marginally less accurate than the model. simulated 0.86 NSE 0.90 0.41, respectively, HWMs 0.77 The system also achieves hit rates 90% 73% predicting distress calls FEMA damage claims, based depth. These results demonstrate potential operationally in U.S. timeliness accuracy early warning, we highlight future research needs.

Язык: Английский

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Australian Coastal Flooding Trends and Forcing Factors

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 10(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2022

Abstract Using the new Australian National Collection of Homogenized Observations Relative Sea Level (ANCHORS) dataset, we assess trends in relative sea levels over recent decades and subsequent coastal flooding impacts. We estimate a gauge average rate mean level rise 1966–2019 period 1.94 mm/yr with local variations around continent. Simultaneously, frequency impacts has increased at many major cities including Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth. find that this increase is not because storm surges are getting larger or more frequent, but tides reaching higher as they fall about levels. This demonstrates shift processes lead to underway, arising directly from global rise, consistent findings United States. suggests perspectives on extreme required, so research can be impact‐based meet needs policymakers planning for these Considering broadly, show seasonality closely linked monthly variability heights highest tides. framework provides holistic assessment flood risk Australia, based established methodologies.

Язык: Английский

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Predicting combined tidal and pluvial flood inundation using a machine learning surrogate model

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 41, С. 101087 - 101087

Опубликована: Апрель 22, 2022

Flooding increases in recent years, particular for coastal communities facing sea level rise, have brought renewed attention to real-time, street-scale flood forecasting. Such models using conventional physics-based modeling approaches are often unrealistic real-time decision support use cases due their long model runtime. Machine learning offers an alternative strategy whereby a surrogate can be trained mimic relationships present within the and, after training, run seconds rather than hours. This study used Random Forest (RF) algorithm emulate 1D/2D simulating surface water depths urban watershed Norfolk, Virginia. Environmental features from selected set of pluvial and tidal events topographic information roadway were input variables train model. Results show potential predict extent depth both events. Furthermore, differentiate between flooding locations dominated by or impacted mechanisms. Flood reports mobile app Waze validation 90% agreement with Finally, feature importance methods investigated interpret performance RF understand contribution different physical localized flooding.

Язык: Английский

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Habitability of low-lying socio-ecological systems under a changing climate

Climatic Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 177(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Abstract Climate change will push the planet worryingly close to its boundaries, across all latitudes and levels of development. One question therefore is extent which climate does (and will) severely affect societies’ livelihoods, health, well-being, cultures. This paper discusses “severe risks” concept developed under Working Group II’s contribution Fifth Sixth Assessment Reports Intergovernmental Panel on Change (IPCC, AR5, AR6). Focusing low-lying coastal socio-ecological systems (LCS) acknowledging that attempts define “severe” risk have been problematic at level global syntheses, we argue for a more place- people-based framing relating “habitability changing climate.” We summarize habitability in terms five pillars: land, freshwater, food, settlement infrastructure, economic subsistence activities; acknowledge social cultural factors (including perceptions, values, governance arrangements, human agency, power structures) as critical underlying rather than separate pillars. further develop examine future health three “hotspot” archetypes (arctic coasts, atoll islands, densely populated urban areas). Building IPCC AR6 severe risks, discuss key parameters describing risks LCS: point irreversibility changes, physical thresholds , cascading effects various dimensions. also highlight variability conditions both between within each them. Further work should consist refining case study find right balance capturing context-specificities through real-world local studies commonalities derived from generic archetypes. In addition, there need identify appropriate methods assess thus habitability.

Язык: Английский

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The growing trend of saltwater intrusion and its impact on coastal agriculture: Challenges and opportunities

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 966, С. 178701 - 178701

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Saltwater intrusion (SWI) into coastal agricultural lands represents a growing threat to productivity, ecosystem stability, and local economies. This phenomenon, affecting surface ground waters, is driven by intensified natural processes anthropogenic factors under changing climate. Here, we provide comprehensive review of the drivers trends SWI their impacts on transition systems. We emphasize importance developing salt-tolerant crop varieties implementing controlled environment agriculture maintain productivity in affected regions. Additionally, discuss role marsh migration (i.e., allowing marshes migrate lands) enhancing biodiversity ecological resilience, protecting remaining farmlands from SWI. highlights urgent need for multidisciplinary research, strategic policy frameworks, community engagement ensure sustainability future face increasing challenges.

Язык: Английский

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Exploring infiltration effects on coastal urban flooding: Insights from nuisance to extreme events using 2D/1D hydrodynamic modeling and crowdsourced flood reports

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 968, С. 178908 - 178908

Опубликована: Фев. 22, 2025

Язык: Английский

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A Coherent Statistical Model for Coastal Flood Frequency Analysis Under Nonstationary Sea Level Conditions

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 7(2), С. 162 - 177

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2019

Abstract Flood exposure is increasing in coastal communities due to rising sea levels. Understanding the effects of level rise (SLR) on frequency and consequences flooding subsequent social economic impacts utmost importance for policymakers implement effective adaptation strategies. Effective strategies may consider from cumulative losses minor as well acute major events. In present study, a statistically coherent Mixture Normal‐Generalized Pareto Distribution model was developed, which reconciles probabilistic characteristics upper tail bulk data. The nonstationary condition incorporated mixture using Quantile Regression method characterize variable Generalized thresholds function SLR. performance validity corroborated 68 tidal stations along Contiguous United States (CONUS) coast with long‐term observed subsequently employed assess existing future flood frequencies. results indicate that will increase all CONUS regions response By end century, under “Intermediate” SLR scenario, anticipated occur return period less than year throughout CONUS. However, these changes vary geographically temporally. reconciled property curve how might influence Average Annual Exposure 20 cities.

Язык: Английский

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