Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice‐Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 47(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 26, 2019

A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere-only simulations is used to investigate the impacts observed Arctic sea ice-driven variability (SIDV) on atmospheric circulation during 1979-2014. The experimental protocol permits separating SIDV from internal and driven by other forcings including surface temperature greenhouse gases. geographic pattern consistent across seven participating models, but its magnitude strongly depends size. Based 130 members, winter ~0.18 hPa

Язык: Английский

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Recent fall Eurasian cooling linked to North Pacific sea surface temperatures and a strengthening Siberian high

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 11(1)

Опубликована: Окт. 15, 2020

Abstract Winter Eurasian cooling after the mid-1990s has been verified by numerous studies, although in recent decades, mid-latitudes of Northern Hemisphere have rapidly warming globally. Because is not uniform at different spatial and temporal scales, over time, this change may truly reflect nature climate fluctuations. Here, using three types data (reanalysis, weather station, remote sensing image data) to assess variations seasonal cooling, we examine causes these changes. During a 30-year climatology (1989–2018), show that significant ( P < 0.05) abrupt autumn air temperature trend occurred 2003. Our results suggest from 2004–2018, reveals 0.05). We demonstrate Eurasia likely influenced Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Siberian high (SH). Since 2004, strengthening PDO SH explains approximately 54% 18% Eurasia, respectively. also find stronger than winter.

Язык: Английский

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Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration on Extended‐Range Prediction of Strong and Long‐Lasting Ural Blocking Events in Winter

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 127(5)

Опубликована: Март 2, 2022

Abstract It is traditionally considered that the predictability of atmosphere reaches approximately 2 weeks due to its chaotic features. Considering boundary conditions, lead prediction time can exceed in certain cases. We find Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) crucial for extended‐range strong and long‐lasting Ural blocking (UB) formation. By applying rotated empirical orthogonal function‐based particle swarm optimization algorithm, conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation calculated with Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, identify optimally growing errors UB found SIC perturbations Greenland Sea (GS), Barents (BS), Okhotsk (OKS) are important formation four pentads. Further analysis reveals these areas first influence local temperature field through diabatic heating process further affect sector mainly by advection convection processes. Moreover, zonal winds adjusted thermal wind balance, thus affecting The characteristics indicate GS, BS, OKS may be sensitive regard formation, which provide scientific support target observations future.

Язык: Английский

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Loss of autumn Kara-East Siberian Sea ice intensifies winter Ural blocking and cold anomalies in high latitudes of Eurasia

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 295, С. 107038 - 107038

Опубликована: Сен. 29, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Climate extremes in Svalbard over the last two millennia are linked to atmospheric blocking

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Июнь 3, 2024

Abstract Arctic precipitation in the form of rain is forecast to become more prevalent a warmer world but with seasonal and interannual changes modulated by natural modes variability. Experiencing rapid hydroclimatic Arctic, Svalbard serves as an ideal study location due its exposure oceanic atmospheric variability North Atlantic region. Here we use climate data from paleoproxies, observations, model demonstrate that wet warm extremes over last two millennia are linked presence blocking regimes Scandinavia Ural mountain Rainfall episodes lead deposition coarse sediment particles high levels calcium Linnévatnet, lake southwest Svalbard, coarsest sediments consistently deposited during events. A unique annually resolved record Linnévatnet confirms this linkage has been persistent past 2000 years. Our also shows millennial-scale decline ended around middle 19th century, followed several unprecedented extreme events recent As warming continues sea ice recedes, future floods will intense Scandinavian blocking.

Язык: Английский

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North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is largely insensitive to autumn Barents-Kara sea ice variability

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 7(31)

Опубликована: Июль 30, 2021

Accounting for internal variability reveals insights into mechanisms underlying an Arctic–mid-latitude teleconnection riddle.

Язык: Английский

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The Role of Atmospheric Blocking in Regulating Arctic Warming

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 49(12)

Опубликована: Июнь 7, 2022

Abstract Using ERA5 reanalysis we find positive trends in poleward transport of moisture and heat during 1979–2018 over the winter Barents Sea sector summer East Siberian sector. The increase blocking occurrence (blocking days) can explain these trends. Blocking significantly increased last 40 winters, inducing increasingly stronger heat. high linear correlation between energy transports temperature suggests that dominate regional warming trend there. Meanwhile, summer, more frequently occurring Beaufort causes a moist increasing shortwave radiation subsidence within contribute to trend.

Язык: Английский

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Bidimensional climatology and trends of Northern Hemisphere blocking utilizing a new detection method

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 149(754), С. 1932 - 1952

Опубликована: Май 18, 2023

Abstract In this article, the meridional gradient of daily potential vorticity (PV) on 330 K isentropic surface is used to identify atmospheric blocking events for period 1979–2019. The associated two‐dimensional index considers not only Rossby wave breaking, but also energy dispersion and nonlinearity systems, thus has a solid theoretical foundation. It advantage automatically excluding subtropical high‐pressure systems in summer autumn. reveals that Northern Hemisphere exhibits high frequency over Euro‐Atlantic, North Pacific Greenland winter, spring autumn, two wide‐extended bands at latitudes summer. Two prominent episode (BE) intensity centres are found eastern Atlantic all seasons, while long‐lived BE primarily situated regions with frequency. There more frequent longer‐lived Euro‐Atlantic sector than Pacific, whereas intense. Notably, same poleward criterion four duration supposed be overestimated Comparing our detection method previous indices provides additional information about long‐term trends intensity, which can useful understanding future extremes climate time‐scales. both exhibit upward linear Ural region Barents–Kara Sea Europe, northern East Siberia spring, western summer, as well Norwegian Sea, Europe point increases high‐impact weather these regions.

Язык: Английский

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Nonlinear Response of Atmospheric Blocking to Early Winter Barents–Kara Seas Warming: An Idealized Model Study

Journal of Climate, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 34(6), С. 2367 - 2383

Опубликована: Дек. 23, 2020

Abstract Wintertime Ural blocking (UB) has been shown to play an important role in cold extremes over Eurasia, and thus it is useful investigate the impact of warming Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) on behavior blocking. Here response UB stepwise tropospheric BKS examined using a dry dynamic core model. Nonlinear responses are found frequency local persistence UB. The increase with strength less strong range decrease further warming, which linked propagation influenced by upstream background atmospheric circulation. For weak becomes more persistent due its westward movement associated intensified zonal wind meridional potential vorticity gradient (PV y ) North Atlantic mid-high latitudes, corresponds negative height high latitudes. When strong, positive appears early winter stratosphere, subsequent downward leads NAO or increased Greenland events, reduces PV latitudes from Europe, enhancing reducing persistence. transition phase retrogression not when numerically suppressing influence weakened stratospheric polar vortex, suggesting crucial pathway nonlinear warming.

Язык: Английский

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Evolution of the East Asian winter land temperature trends during 1961–2018: role of internal variability and external forcing

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 16(2), С. 024015 - 024015

Опубликована: Дек. 22, 2020

Abstract Detecting the contributions of internal variability and external forcing to evolution surface air temperature (SAT) trend at regional scales is a challenge. Based on observations large-ensemble simulations climate models, we estimate contribution forced components East Asian winter land SAT (EAWT) during 1961–2018. Although induced EAWT trends show slow increase, both total internally generated exhibit decrease with extension time period, suggesting critical role in trends. The contributes about 70% 1961–1995. With decreases, whereas gradually grows dominate dynamical adjustment method, identify that dynamics thermodynamics account for majority variations, respectively. We further multidecadal fluctuation component autumn Arctic sea ice precursor variability, especially dynamically through triggering meridional stationary Rossby wave response following boreal winter. Our findings provide an insight into understanding present future change over Asia.

Язык: Английский

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