Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
16(1)
Опубликована: Янв. 16, 2025
The
most
disastrous
heatwaves
are
very
extreme
events
with
return
periods
of
hundreds
years,
but
traditionally,
climate
research
has
focussed
on
moderate
occurring
every
couple
years
or
even
several
times
within
a
year.
Here,
we
use
three
Earth
System
Model
large
ensembles
to
assess
whether
heat
respond
differently
global
warming
than
events.
We
find
that
the
signal
can
be
amplified
dampened
substantially
compared
extremes.
This
modulation
is
detectable
already
in
mid-century
projections.
In
mid-latitudes,
it
explained
by
changes
event
soil
moisture-temperature
coupling
during
hottest
day
depend
interplay
present
moisture
and
as
well
projected
precipitation
changes.
mechanism
robust
across
models,
albeit
spatial
uncertainties.
Our
findings
highly
relevant
for
risk
assessments
adaptation
planning.
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
14(1)
Опубликована: Апрель 25, 2023
Abstract
Heatwaves
are
becoming
more
frequent
under
climate
change
and
can
lead
to
thousands
of
excess
deaths.
Adaptation
extreme
weather
events
often
occurs
in
response
an
event,
with
communities
learning
fast
following
unexpectedly
impactful
events.
Using
value
statistics,
here
we
show
where
regional
temperature
records
statistically
likely
be
exceeded,
therefore
might
at-risk.
In
31%
regions
examined,
the
observed
daily
maximum
record
is
exceptional.
Climate
models
suggest
that
similar
behaviour
occur
any
region.
some
regions,
such
as
Afghanistan
parts
Central
America,
this
a
particular
problem
-
not
only
have
they
potential
for
far
heatwaves
than
experienced,
but
their
population
growing
increasingly
exposed
because
limited
healthcare
energy
resources.
We
urge
policy
makers
vulnerable
consider
if
heat
action
plans
sufficient
what
come.
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
14(1)
Опубликована: Окт. 26, 2023
Over
the
last
70
years,
extreme
heat
has
been
increasing
at
a
disproportionate
rate
in
Western
Europe,
compared
to
climate
model
simulations.
This
mismatch
is
not
well
understood.
Here,
we
show
that
substantial
fraction
(0.8
°C
[0.2°-1.4
°C]
of
3.4
per
global
warming
degree)
extremes
trend
induced
by
atmospheric
circulation
changes,
through
more
frequent
southerly
flows
over
Europe.
In
170
available
simulations
from
32
different
models
analyzed,
including
3
large
ensembles,
none
have
circulation-induced
as
observed.
can
be
due
underestimated
response
external
forcing,
or
systematic
underestimation
low-frequency
variability,
both.
The
former
implies
future
projections
are
too
conservative,
latter
left
with
deep
uncertainty
regarding
pace
summer
calls
for
caution
when
interpreting
view
adaptation
waves.
Environmental Science & Technology,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
58(8), С. 3755 - 3765
Опубликована: Янв. 29, 2024
Carbon
dioxide
removal
(CDR)
is
necessary
for
reaching
net
zero
emissions,
with
studies
showing
potential
deployment
at
multi-GtCO2
scale
by
2050.
However,
excessive
reliance
on
future
CDR
entails
serious
risks,
including
delayed
emissions
cuts,
lock-in
of
fossil
infrastructure,
and
threats
to
sustainability
from
increased
resource
competition.
This
study
highlights
an
alternative
pathway─prioritizing
near-term
non-CDR
mitigation
minimizing
dependence.
We
impose
a
1
GtCO2
limit
global
novel
2050,
forcing
aggressive
early
reductions
compared
8–22
in
higher
scenarios.
Our
results
reveal
that
this
low
pathway
significantly
decreases
fuel
use,
greenhouse
gas
(GHG)
air
pollutants
pathways.
Driving
rapid
energy
transitions
eases
pressures
land
(including
food
cropland),
water,
fertilizer
resources
required
negative
emissions.
these
gains
come
costs
greater
low/zero-carbon
technology
decarbonization.
Overall,
work
provides
strong
evidence
maximizing
strategies
such
as
renewables,
electrification,
carbon
neutral/negative
fuels,
efficiency
now
rather
than
betting
uncertain
scaling.
Ambitious
decade
essential
prevent
offer
the
best
chance
successful
deep
constrained
scenario
offers
robust
achieving
limited
impacts.
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
7(1)
Опубликована: Янв. 23, 2024
Abstract
The
western
Mediterranean
region
experienced
an
exceptional
and
unprecedented
early
heatwave
in
April
2023.
By
shattering
historical
temperature
records,
especially
the
Iberian
Peninsula
northwestern
Africa,
this
extreme
offers
a
stark
illustration
of
drought–heatwave
compound
event.
Here,
we
investigate
soil
moisture–temperature
interactions
that
underpinned
event,
using
most
up-to-date
observations
robust
statistical
analysis.
Our
results
reveal
moisture
deficit
preconditions,
concurring
with
strong
subtropical
ridge
as
synoptic
driver,
had
key
contribution
to
amplification
duration
record-breaking
heatwave.
Specifically,
estimate
records
would
have
been
4.53
times
less
likely
2.19
°C
lower
soils
wet.
These
findings
indicate
content
may
be
crucial
variable
for
seasonal
forecasting
HW
other
climate
regimes
are
already
suffering
increment
frequency
events.
Multi-annual
to
decadal
changes
in
climate
are
accompanied
by
extreme
events
that
cause
major
impacts
on
society
and
severe
challenges
for
adaptation.
Early
warnings
of
such
now
potentially
possible
through
operational
predictions.
However,
improved
understanding
the
causes
regional
these
timescales
is
needed
both
attribute
recent
gain
further
confidence
forecasts.
Here
we
document
Large
Ensemble
Single
Forcing
Model
Intercomparison
Project
will
address
this
need
coordinated
model
experiments
enabling
different
external
drivers
be
isolated.
We
highlight
account
errors
propose
an
attribution
approach
exploits
differences
between
models
diagnose
real-world
situation
overcomes
potential
atmospheric
circulation
changes.
The
analysis
proposed
here
provide
substantial
improvements
our
ability
understand
near-term
support
World
Climate
Research
Program
Lighthouse
Activity
Explaining
Predicting
Earth
System
Change.
Annual Review of Environment and Resources,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
48(1), С. 813 - 828
Опубликована: Авг. 22, 2023
Within
the
past
decade,
attribution
of
extreme
weather
events
and
their
impacts
has
enabled
scientists,
public,
policymakers
alike
to
connect
real-world
experiences
with
scientific
understanding
anthropogenic
climate
change.
Attribution
studies
recent
have
formed
a
new
important
line
evidence
in
most
Intergovernmental
Panel
on
Climate
Change
(IPCC)
assessment
report
present-day
IPCC
using
different
methods
event
been
assessed
together,
highlighting
that
these
differences
are
smaller
than
academic
discourse
suggests.
This
development
raised
two
research
questions
science
needs
answer:
First,
how
do
we
formally
combine
statements
highly
conditional
probabilistic
assessments
change
alters
likelihood
intensity
events?
Second,
under
what
circumstances
individual
still
necessary
extent
existing
provide
enough
information
answer
societal
questions?
Furthermore,
leaves
gaps,
particularly
countries
Global
South,
leading
ethical
around
need
requirement
policy
contexts,
informing
adaptation
loss
damage
role
vulnerability.
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
14(1)
Опубликована: Авг. 22, 2023
Recent
temperature
extremes
have
shattered
previously
observed
records,
reaching
intensities
that
were
inconceivable
before
the
events.
Could
possibility
of
an
event
with
such
unprecedented
intensity
as
2021
Pacific
Northwest
heatwave
been
foreseen,
based
on
climate
model
information
available
event?
scientific
community
quantified
its
potential
current
generation
models?
Here,
we
demonstrate
how
ensemble
boosting
approach
can
be
used
to
generate
physically
plausible
storylines
a
hotter
than
in
Northwest.
We
also
show
heatwaves
much
greater
ever
are
possible
other
locations
like
Greater
Chicago
and
Paris
regions.
In
order
establish
confidence
'black
swan'-type
events,
different
lines
evidence
need
combined
along
process
understanding
make
this
robust
actionable
for
stakeholders.
