Jet stream controls on European climate and agriculture since 1300 ce

Nature, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 634(8034), С. 600 - 608

Опубликована: Сен. 25, 2024

The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes

Язык: Английский

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Incorporating extreme event attribution into climate change adaptation for civil infrastructure: Methods, benefits, and research needs

Resilient Cities and Structures, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 3(1), С. 103 - 113

Опубликована: Март 1, 2024

In the last decade, detection and attribution science that links climate change to extreme weather events has emerged as a growing field of research with an increasing body literature. This paper overviews methods for event (EEA) discusses new insights EEA provides infrastructure adaptation. We found can inform stakeholders about current risk, support vulnerability-based hazard-based adaptations, assist in development cost-effective adaptation strategies, enhance justice equity allocation resources. As engineering practice shifts from retrospective approach proactive, forward-looking risk management strategy, be used together projections comprehensiveness decision making, including planning preparing unprecedented events. Additionally, assessment more useful when exposure vulnerability communities past are analyzed, future changes probability evaluated. Given large uncertainties inherent projections, should examine sensitivity design model uncertainties, adapt practice, building codes, uncertain conditions. While this study focuses on planning, also tool informing enhancing decisions related mitigation.

Язык: Английский

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Heatwave Future Changes From an Ensemble of Km‐Scale Regional Climate Simulations Within CORDEX‐FPS Convection

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 52(2)

Опубликована: Янв. 12, 2025

Abstract As global temperatures continue to rise, the impact of heatwaves becomes increasingly striking. The increasing frequency and intensity these events underscore critical need understand regional‐scale mechanisms feedback, exacerbating or mitigating heatwave magnitude. Here, we use an ensemble convection‐permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) elucidate future changes at fine spatial scales. We explore whether recently highlighted drier/warmer signal introduced by CPRCMs improves summer temperature extremes representation if it modulates compared convection‐parameterizing (RCMs). In historical runs, show a more realistic maximum especially on ground‐station‐based evaluation. project substantially drier conditions than RCMs. This is associated with modulation which diversified patterns, magnitudes, signs. shows overall reduction in metrics inter‐model spread RCMs ensemble.

Язык: Английский

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Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 16, 2025

The most disastrous heatwaves are very extreme events with return periods of hundreds years, but traditionally, climate research has focussed on moderate occurring every couple years or even several times within a year. Here, we use three Earth System Model large ensembles to assess whether heat respond differently global warming than events. We find that the signal can be amplified dampened substantially compared extremes. This modulation is detectable already in mid-century projections. In mid-latitudes, it explained by changes event soil moisture-temperature coupling during hottest day depend interplay present moisture and as well projected precipitation changes. mechanism robust across models, albeit spatial uncertainties. Our findings highly relevant for risk assessments adaptation planning.

Язык: Английский

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Human-induced climate change increased 2021-2022 drought severity in Horn of Africa

Weather and Climate Extremes, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 100745 - 100745

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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