Surface Warming Constraint Projects Less Permafrost Thawing in High Mountain Asia

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 51(19)

Опубликована: Окт. 8, 2024

Abstract Reliable projections of permafrost change are crucial for estimating carbon loss. However, potential model biases in surface air temperature may yield unrealistic future area. Here, by leveraging the emergent relationship between equilibrium climate sensitivity and projected changes mean annual over High Mountain Asia (HMA), we mitigate overestimated local warming rates excessive thawing associated with “hot model” problem models participating Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6. After constraint, area HMA will reduce 37%, 64% 99% 2081–2100 relative to present‐day under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. In contrast, unconstrained tend overestimate loss nearly 10% low mid‐emission scenarios due overestimation rates. These findings policymaking provide valuable insights into global projection.

Язык: Английский

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Permafrost in the climate system: Feedbacks, cycles, future trends, ecological and social implications

Elsevier eBooks, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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