Future socio-ecosystem productivity threatened by compound drought–heatwave events

Nature Sustainability, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 6(3), С. 259 - 272

Опубликована: Янв. 5, 2023

Язык: Английский

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How Unusual Is the 2022 European Compound Drought and Heatwave Event?

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 50(15)

Опубликована: Авг. 8, 2023

Abstract The 2022 Compound Drought and Heatwave (CDHW) caused widespread crop damage, water shortages, wildfires across Europe. Our study analyzed this event’s severity return period (RP) compared it with past mega CDHWs in hardest‐hit areas were Iberian Peninsula, France, Italy, where temperatures exceeded 2.5°C above normal, severe droughts persisted from May to August. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimated the RP for CDHW event, which was unprecedented Northern western parts of RPs 354, 420, 280 years, respectively. reduced soil moisture due precipitation deficits high contributed persistence drought, creating positive feedback loop dry soils led even drier conditions. In light our findings, is evident that global warming poses increased risks events, are likely increase.

Язык: Английский

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Projected Changes in Hot, Dry, and Compound Hot‐Dry Extremes Over Global Land Regions

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 50(13)

Опубликована: Июль 10, 2023

Abstract The impacts of hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes are significant for societies, economies, ecosystems worldwide. Such events therefore need to be assessed in the light anthropogenic climate change so that suitable adaptation measures can implemented by governments stakeholders. Here we show a comprehensive analysis over global land regions using 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models four future emissions scenarios from 1950 2100. Hot, projected increase large parts globe end 21st century. Hot most widespread increases dry extreme changes sensitive index used. Many regional depend on strength greenhouse‐gas forcing, which highlights potential limit with strong mitigation efforts.

Язык: Английский

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Intensification of Global Hydrological Droughts Under Anthropogenic Climate Warming

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 59(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 22, 2022

Abstract Anthropogenic climate warming is expected to accelerate the hydrological cycle with significant consequences for droughts. However, a systematic understanding of impacts on global droughts and their driving mechanisms still lacking. Here, we integrate bias‐corrected experiments, multiple models (HYs), multivariate analysis variance (ANOVA) machine learning modeling framework, examine evolving frequency characteristics under 6,688 catchments in five principal Köppen‐Geiger zones. Results show that total likely stay unchanged while extreme (e.g., events 30 yr joint return period, JRP) are projected occur more frequently across 21st century. The historical JRP assessed during baseline period 1985–2014 could become twice as frequent over ∼60% by 2071–2100 middle high emission scenarios (ESs). Climate uncertainty (i.e., from ESs) major source temperate tropical catchments, versus HY arid locally complex runoff regimes. Our framework indicates precipitation stress controls development ∼87% catchments. warming, air temperature variations new primary driver high‐latitude cold This study highlights an increasing risk suggests rising temperatures latitudes may lead

Язык: Английский

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Thresholds for triggering the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought in water-limited regions of China

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 876, С. 162771 - 162771

Опубликована: Март 11, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Drought-heatwave compound events are stronger in drylands

Weather and Climate Extremes, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 42, С. 100632 - 100632

Опубликована: Ноя. 22, 2023

Climate change is exacerbating the occurrence of compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs), which pose a serious threat to human health socio-economic development. Using daily maximum temperature (Tmax) monthly self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI) dataset, The evolution patterns CDHWs wet-heatwave events, dominant drivers relative contributions in drylands humid areas from 1961 2020 were compared analyzed. results show that types are stronger than areas, growth rate was almost twice greater multi-year average intensity events by up 2.4 times. Moreover, has increased significantly past period (1961–1990) recent warm (1991–2020), heatwave threshold about 5 °C. In most drylands, contribution dominates, whereas does. compounding effects may exacerbate regionally pronounced taking into account optimal lags. study findings could provide scientific technological support actively address global climate risks.

Язык: Английский

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Bayesian model averaging by combining deep learning models to improve lake water level prediction

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 906, С. 167718 - 167718

Опубликована: Окт. 12, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Roles of reservoirs in regulating basin flood and droughts risks under climate change: Historical assessment and future projection

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 48, С. 101453 - 101453

Опубликована: Июнь 20, 2023

Nenjiang River Basin (NRB), Northeast China. Water safety management and sustainable development planning increasingly seek to incorporate the impact of reservoirs on downstream floods droughts; while effectiveness reservoir operation in regulating flood drought risks under climate change has not been assessed extensively. We focus discerning whether what extent can mitigate risk hydrologic extremes from perspective historical future change. found that coupling operations into basin hydrological simulation efficiently improve model capacity capture both characteristics. The Nierji Reservoir contributed largely reducing NRB. However, droughts will increase change, cannot completely eliminate increasing droughts. annual probability flooding different scenarios exceed 48%, much higher than 22.2% for period. frequency is anticipated by 139.20% Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 370 scenario. To caused it necessary further optimize scheduling principles, thereby improving basin's resilience extremes.

Язык: Английский

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GTWS-MLrec: global terrestrial water storage reconstruction by machine learning from 1940 to present

Earth system science data, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(12), С. 5597 - 5615

Опубликована: Дек. 8, 2023

Abstract. Terrestrial water storage (TWS) includes all forms of stored on and below the land surface, is a key determinant global energy budgets. However, TWS data from measurements by Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission are only available 2002, limiting regional understanding long-term trends variabilities in terrestrial cycle under climate change. This study presents (i.e., 1940–2022) relatively high-resolution 0.25∘) monthly time series anomalies over surface. The reconstruction achieved using set machine learning models with large number predictors, including climatic hydrological variables, use/land cover data, vegetation indicators (e.g., leaf area index). outcome, machine-learning-reconstructed estimates GTWS-MLrec), fits well GRACE/GRACE-FO measurements, showing high correlation coefficients low biases GRACE era. We also evaluate GTWS-MLrec other independent products such as land–ocean mass budget, atmospheric budget 341 river basins, streamflow at 10 168 gauges. results show that our proposed performs overall as, or more reliable than, previous datasets. Moreover, reconstructions successfully reproduce consequences variability strong El Niño events. dataset consists three based (a) mascons Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute Technology, Center for Space Research University Texas Austin, Goddard Flight NASA; (b) detrended de-seasonalized reconstructions; (c) six average areas, both without Greenland Antarctica. Along its extensive attributes, GTWS_MLrec can support wide range geoscience applications better constraining evaluating models, climate-carbon coupling, resources management. Zenodo through https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10040927 (Yin, 2023).

Язык: Английский

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Evaluating future water security in the upper Yangtze River Basin under a changing environment

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 889, С. 164101 - 164101

Опубликована: Май 18, 2023

Язык: Английский

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