Application of High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations for Crop Yield Estimation in Southern Brazil

AgriEngineering, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 7(4), С. 108 - 108

Опубликована: Апрель 7, 2025

This study is focused on assessing the impacts of different regional climate model targeted simulations performed at convection-permitting resolution (CPRCM) in AgS crop yield simulations, evaluating to what extent uncertainty modeled yield—considering spatial and temporal variability over central-south Brazil. The ensemble CPRCMs has been produced as part a Flagship Pilot Study (FPS-SESA) framework, endorsed by Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). simulated exhibited significant differences, both space time, among driven well when compared with observations. Rainfall showed highest CPRCM particularly its variability, whereas temperature solar radiation were generally more accurate smaller differences. results evidenced need for multi-model account uncertainty, from models parameterizations, estimations. Inter-institutional collaboration coordinated science are key aspects address these end-to-end studies South America, since there no single institution able produce such CPRCM-CropModels ensembles.

Язык: Английский

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The Fifth Generation Regional Climate Modeling System, RegCM5: the first CP European wide simulation and validation over the CORDEX-CORE domains.

Authorea (Authorea), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 16, 2024

The Regional Climate Modeling system (RegCM) has undergone a significant evolution over the years, leading for example to widely used versions RegCM4 and RegCM4-NH. In response demand higher resolution, new version of been developed, RegCM5, incorporating non-hydrostatic dynamical core MOLOCH weather prediction model. this paper we assess RegCM5’s performance 5 CORDEX-CORE domains, including pan-European domain at convection-permitting resolution.We find temperature biases generally in range -2 2 degrees Celsius, northernmost regions North America Asia during winter, linked cloud water overestimation. Central Tibetan Plateau show cold biases, possibly due sparse station coverage. model exhibits prevailing bias maximum warm minimum temperature, associated with systematic overestimation lower-level fraction, especially winter.Taylor diagrams indicate high spatial pattern correlation ERA5 CRU data, except South Caribbean region. precipitation evaluation shows an America, East Asia, Africa. RegCM5 improves daily distribution compared RegCM4, particularly intensities. analysis wind fields confirms model’s ability simulate monsoon circulations. assessment tropical cyclone tracks highlights strong sensitivity tracking algorithms, thus necessitating careful interpretation.Over European region, convection permitting simulations improve diurnal cycle hourly

Язык: Английский

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An ensemble-based projection of future hydro-climatic extremes in Iran

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 642, С. 131892 - 131892

Опубликована: Авг. 23, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Converging Findings of Climate Models and Satellite Observations on the Positive Impact of European Forests on Cloud Cover

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 129(11)

Опубликована: Май 30, 2024

Abstract Although afforestation is a potential strategy to mitigate climate change by sequestering carbon, its biophysical effects on climate, such as regulating surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and energy balance, have not been fully incorporated into mitigation strategies. This partly due the challenges associated with modeling complex bidirectional interactions between vegetation climate. In this study, we assess impact of low cloud cover using regional model (RCM) Earth observation data, applying space‐for‐time approach overcome limitations that may arise from comparing satellite RCM results, different background conditions or extents land change. Our results show consistent increase in Europe both datasets (3.71% 3.56% average, respectively), but magnitude direction effect depend various factors, including location, seasonality, forest type. These suggest can important feedbacks system, must be considered Furthermore, emphasize role community developing accurate reliable approaches

Язык: Английский

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Future Projections of Temperature Extremes and Urban Heat Island in Paris Using Deep Learning

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Urbanization accelerated last century and is expected to continue, with over half of the global population now living in cities, making it crucial assess climate change on urban areas. Urban projections require very high-resolution physically-based numerical models, which are slow computationally expensive, prompting exploration cost-effective alternatives, such as artificial intelligence. Here, we employ Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), a type Deep Learning (DL) model, downscale Global Climate Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 for Paris, France, 2015 2100 under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The CNNs generated daily 2-meter air temperature (T2m) at point-level land surface (LST) higher spatial resolutions (~5 km), providing extremes, including heatwaves, heat island (UHI) effect. Our findings indicate that effectively GCM data, results aligning trends, while replicating UHI effect (learned observations), absent original simulations. Projections suggest stable nighttime intensity (~2.2°C) (~5°C) through 21st century. Heatwave frequency increases ~1.5 events per year 2015-2040 ~2.5 2071-2100 most severe scenario (SSP5-8.5), though DL underestimates heatwave relative GCMs. This paper highlights CNNs' efficacy generating projections, demonstrating potential DL-downscaling data context, supports adaptation mitigation strategies.

Язык: Английский

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Biogeophysical Radiative Forcings of Large‐Scale Afforestation in Europe Are Highly Localized and Dominated by Surface Albedo Change

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 52(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 6, 2025

Abstract Large‐scale re‐/afforestation projects afford sizable atmospheric CO 2 removals yet questions loom surrounding their potentially offsetting biogeophysical radiative forcings. Forest area change alters not only the surface albedo but also heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes, which in turn modify atmosphere's radiative, thermodynamical, dynamical properties. These so‐called forcing “adjustments” have been little examined contexts, many remain relevance relation to instantaneous from change—and whether they can affect Earth's energy balance regions remote where occurs. Here, we quantified forcings adjustments realistically scaled Europe at high spatial resolution found that with signal‐to‐noise were largely confined a few months region of re‐/afforestation. Adjustments dominated by perturbed low‐level clouds rarely exceeded ±25% annual forcing.

Язык: Английский

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Evaluation of high-resolution regional climate model performance over Surabaya metropolitan area using RegCM5 MOLOCH core

BIO Web of Conferences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 171, С. 02016 - 02016

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

As climate change continue to impact weather patterns globally, understanding regional effects has become more important. Traditional global model lacks the resolution capture dynamics of climate, leading uncertainties in predicting local climate. There been some research about high-resolution model, but not specific Indonesia especially Surabaya. This paper aim is evaluate new MOLOCH non-hydrodynamical core RegCM5 producing model. study covers Surabaya Metropolitan Area, with a period December 2017 November 2019. Three different scheme combinations were compared, two which based on previous research, and one combination. ERA5 0.25° 6-hour surface sea temperature datasets utilized as It can be observed that had cold bias for maximum warm minimum temperature. precipitation upwelling longwave radiation performed well, it similar pattern small bias. Overall, produced limited variability opposed data. The findings might shed light future modelling.

Язык: Английский

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The Cold Biases in the Soil and Surface Air Temperature Simulations of RegCM4.7 Model Over the Tibetan Plateau in Cold Seasons Reduced by Adopting an Improved Snow Cover Fraction Scheme

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 130(8)

Опубликована: Апрель 25, 2025

Abstract In cold seasons, global and regional climate models exhibit consistent biases in the soil surface air temperature simulations on Tibetan Plateau (TP), while overestimated snow cover fraction (SCF) is treated as one of crucial factors leading to biases. To partially solve this issue, study adopts an improved SCF scheme that adequately consider impact sub‐grid terrain relief into Regional Climate Model version 4.7 (RegCM4.7) coupled with CLM4.5 land model enhance skill. Results show adopting RegCM4.7 can significantly reduce overestimation TP produced by original model, obvious improvements albedo, seasons. Mechanism analysis indicates suppresses rapid increase snowfall makes ground more difficult be fully covered snow, resulting obviously reduced thereafter albedo decreased. It further causes absorb solar radiation then heat released overlying atmosphere deep soils. Thereafter, seasons clearly reduced. This highlights considering topography numerical effective ways for reducing TP.

Язык: Английский

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High-Resolution Deep-Learning and Dynamical Climate Downscaling for Impact Modeling in Southeast South America

Earth Systems and Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Май 30, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Assessment of the Sensitivity of the Mean Climate Simulation over West Africa to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Using RegCM5 Regional Climate Model

Atmosphere, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(3), С. 332 - 332

Опубликована: Март 7, 2024

This study evaluates the performance of two planetary boundary parameterizations in simulating mean climate West Africa using Regional Climate Model version 5 (RegCM5). These are Holtslag scheme and University Washington scheme. Two sets three one-year simulations were carried out at 25 km horizontal resolution with different initial conditions. The first set used (hereafter referred to as Hol), while second (UW) UW). results displayed this an average simulations. During JJAS rainy season, respect GPCP, both models overestimated total rainfall orographic regions. UW experiment represented fairly well compared its counterpart, Hol. Both reproduced convective well, a relatively weak dry bias over Guinean coast subregion. Globally, performed better than Hol precipitation. pattern near-surface temperature was higher UW. Indeed, led cooling effect owing reduction eddy heat diffusivity lower troposphere contributing reduce bias. As consequence, height layer (PBL) best simulated but underestimated ERA5, failed capture PBL. is coherent distribution cloud cover, which shows that use leads good simulation most climatological characteristics African region. Nevertheless, contributes scheme, differentiation between schemes significant along Guinea Coast In these topographically complex regions, appears be more appropriate emphasizes importance for accurately variables improving forecasts projections Africa.

Язык: Английский

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