Temperature Overshoot Would Have Lasting Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resources

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 61(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Abstract Models of climate change impacts could be missing significant risks to hydrologic and water infrastructure systems through a shared feature: the idea that temperatures rise monotonically. By contrast, temperature overshoot pathways describe non‐monotonic warming trajectories, in which global first exceed given target before declining target. Risks from are qualitatively different associated with monotonic likely underestimated current research policy. suggest may almost unavoidable if more stringent Paris Agreement limiting 1.5°C over preindustrial levels is met by 2100. While has been relatively widely described literature, on individual system characteristics have not. We failure consider disparities between hydrology resources presents particular due divergent adaptation needs. Processes decadal hysteresis especially vulnerable. These include glacial contributions streamflow; consequences vegetation change; altered groundwater; higher use for fossil fuel combustion carbon dioxide removal; policy depends conditions. argue cannot fully captured integrated assessment models needs specifically evaluated adequately characterize risk system. how modeling tools adapted evaluate consequences, but also recognize decisions must made even without perfect knowledge.

Язык: Английский

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Analysis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland carbon sinks in Xinjiang via the improved CASA model

Ecological Indicators, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 170, С. 113062 - 113062

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Spatial-Temporal Pattern of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity and Its Natural Driving Factors in Ordos Section of the Yellow River Basin

Atmosphere, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1), С. 89 - 89

Опубликована: Янв. 15, 2025

Weather change has a great impact on vegetation growth restoration and ecosystem service function, resulting in significant changes net primary productivity (NPP). Therefore, based MOD17A3 NPP data meteorological data, this study used the slope of one-dimensional linear regression equation, Spearman correlation analysis method, geographical detector model to reveal spatial temporal evolution characteristics Ordos section Yellow River Basin from 2000 2021 weather NPP. Results: (1) increased 25.4 gC/m2 60.3 2021. The northeastern southern parts area showed increasing trend. (2) From 2021, evaporation fluctuating downward trend, relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, surface precipitation upward (3) Evaporation is most important factor hindering Precipitation, temperature played an role promoting NPP, average coefficients were 0.62, 0.33, 0.15, respectively. Relative humidity can promote but effect not significant. (4) interaction results that combination precipitation, speed evaporation, could effectively improve climatic factors Basin. provide strong reference for ecological protection restoration, realization dual carbon goals, sustainable development

Язык: Английский

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Hydrothermal conditions dominated sensitivity and lag effect of grassland productivity in Yunnan Province, China: Implications for climate change

Agricultural Water Management, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 308, С. 109293 - 109293

Опубликована: Янв. 15, 2025

Язык: Английский

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The construction of shelterbelts along the desert highway has increased the carbon sequestration capacity of the Taklimakan Desert, China

Ecological Informatics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 103027 - 103027

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Forest Productivity Decreases in Response to Recent Changes in Vegetation Structure and Climate in the Latitudinal Extremes of the European Continent

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 34(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Aim Climate change is driving increasingly frequent and intense extreme climatic events, pushing many forests worldwide beyond their physiological thresholds. Despite the major role played by in global carbon cycle, climate threatens future potential for sequestration forests. Hence, studies of recent changes stand productivity underlying drivers over large areas are critical to understand assess forest sink. We aimed describe latitudinal extremes European continent these patterns. Location Latitudinal (Spain Sweden). Time Period From 1980s present. Major Taxa Studied Trees. Methods analysed data from > 13,900 plots Mediterranean, temperate boreal regions using three consecutive surveys Spanish Swedish National Forest Inventories (NFI). Generalised linear models were parameterised how structure, anomalies (mean temperature, annual precipitation, drought, heatwaves) influenced across two time periods. Results increases basal area, declined time. The effects intensified, with temperature negatively impacting most regions. Region‐specific observed: Heatwaves reduced precipitation intensified droughts increased further dynamics. Main Conclusions Our results showed a marked decrease due warming differential sensitivity events regions, which will affect multiple dependent ecosystem functions. findings provide evidence that altered may hinder sink capacity

Язык: Английский

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Spatiotemporal patterns and dynamic mechanisms of ecosystem services in the coastal zone of China

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13

Опубликована: Фев. 19, 2025

Ecosystem services (ESs) are a key component of social-ecological system (SES). Exploring the spatial processes coastal ESs is great significance for promoting high-quality development zones. This study investigates patterns and their interrelationships, identifies driving mechanisms, subsequently offers sustainable management strategies. The major results reveal that (1) exhibit fluctuating growth trend (k = 0.017, R 2 0.175) from 2000 to 2022, but synergistic effects gradually weakening; Spatially, show pattern higher levels in south lower north, with significant north-south disparity; In future, slight upward (mean Hurst 0.516), southern region being stronger than those northern region. (2) more strongly influenced by social factors less affected natural factors. Natural have weak positive influence on ESs, while opposite true factors; Social exert nonlinear mechanism (3) demonstrate pronounced aggregation pattern, which can serve as basis partitioning. As result, we integrate local realities governance knowledge into planning support SES.

Язык: Английский

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Three Decades of Land Cover Changes Shifted Environment‐Driven Greening Towards Browning in Coastal China

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 31(3)

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Coastal vegetation serves as a protective buffer against the deleterious impacts of storm surges, influencing dynamic exchange energy and matter mediating lateral transport carbon from land to ocean. Comprehensive understanding coastal dynamics is crucial for sustaining ecological biogeochemical functions ecosystems. Despite considerable influence cover change (LCC) on greenness, quantifying this impact along rapidly developing Chinese coasts amid significant social economic changes over past decades remains inadequately addressed. In study, using moderate-resolution Landsat-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), we found that LCC generally reduced greenness shifted environment-driven greening towards browning in China three decades. Compared 'Stable Land Cover areas', 'Land Change areas' exhibited 23% decrease proportion 39% increase proportion. Urbanization occurring regions during 1992-2018 dominated effect 29% 'LCC which outweighed climate change, CO2 fertilization, nitrogen enrichment. This negative urbanization was scarcely compensated by afforestation, despite concurrent implementation National Shelterbelt System Construction Project (NCSSCP). The afforestation area under green scenario (SSP1-2.6) 2030-2060 projected be substantially higher than 30 years. It expected mitigate enhance ecosystem sustainability through conservation policies, particularly forest restoration zone China. Furthermore, insights derived satellite observations study will serve fundamental information representing next generation Earth system models (ESMs), enhancing predictions related future function adaptation.

Язык: Английский

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Analysis of Cultivated Land Productivity in Southern China: Stability and Drivers

Land, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 14(4), С. 708 - 708

Опубликована: Март 26, 2025

Owing to climate change and increasing resource competition, elucidating the control mechanism of cultivated land productivity stability is essential. Previous research has focused on anthropogenic or climatic factors individually, overlooking their combined effects; therefore, “climate–anthropogenic” framework was constructed. Net primary (NPP) employed measure investigate impact in Poyang Lake from 2001 2022. Results revealed that NPP increased but fluctuated significantly higher southern than north. The low spatial distribution fluctuation area concentrated periphery Lake, riverbank comprised middle high areas, Ganjiang River Delta exhibited fluctuation. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated positively impacted by farmland river proximity average patch fractal dimension affected negatively annual precipitation. Stable production improved utilization efficiency requires irrigation drainage system optimization adaptability change. Moreover, fragmentation should be reduced, resilience external disturbances enhanced.

Язык: Английский

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Improved forest canopy evaporation leads to better predictions of ecohydrological processes

Ecological Modelling, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 489, С. 110620 - 110620

Опубликована: Янв. 13, 2024

Язык: Английский

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