Lessons from paleoclimates for recent and future climate change: opportunities and insights DOI Creative Commons
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi

и другие.

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 6

Опубликована: Дек. 11, 2024

Paleoclimate information has played an instrumental role in showing how fast climate can vary and large these changes be. It provided the first vivid demonstration of relationships between atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations surface air temperatures, as well striking representations change impacts possible feedbacks within system, such those associated with vegetation or ice sheet changes. Here, a short review recent advances paleoclimate studies is provided, objective what this on past climates environments bring to research current future climates. We advocate that (1) paleoclimatic paleoenvironmental be leveraged for narratives about change, particular at local regional levels, (2) data essential out-of-range tests models, since are also out range used calibrating (3) data, last millennia, taking multi-centennial multi-millennial variability into account when describing trends related anthropogenic forcings attributing signals, extreme rare events, (4) paleoclimates provide extremely valuable initializing slow components models. In addition, we show beneficial put context improve our knowledge key processes. They both benefit from contribute models based study

Язык: Английский

Unveiling the role of South Tropical Atlantic in winter Atlantic Niño inducing La Niña DOI Creative Commons
Guangli Zhang, Jiepeng Chen, Hanjie Fan

и другие.

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 13, 2025

The boreal winter-peaked Atlantic Niño/Niña can influence La Niña/El Niño (the cold/warm phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) in the following year. However, Niño-La Niña relationship is more uncertain than Niña-El counterpart. Here, we show that this uncertainty arises from two distinct types events: Equatorial and Expanded types, which differ their meridional sea surface temperature (SST) warming. type, with SST warming confined to equator, has a weaker climate impact due limited on local convective heating spring when intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) shifts southward. In contrast, extending into southern tropical (STA), drive persistent anomalous convection strong remote atmospheric responses Pacific winter spring. Our results emphasize critical role STA conditions shaping Pacific. This paper identifies an extended type Niño, anomalies South Tropical Atlantic, stronger triggering through responses.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1

Weakening AMOC reduces ocean carbon uptake and increases the social cost of carbon DOI Creative Commons
Felix Schaumann, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 122(9)

Опубликована: Фев. 24, 2025

A weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been found to be globally beneficial by economic assessments. This result emerges because AMOC would cool Northern Hemisphere, thereby reducing expected climate damages and decreasing estimates global social cost carbon dioxide (SCC). There are, however, many other impacts that are not yet taken into account. Here, we add a second impact channel quantifying effects on ocean uptake, using biogeochemically-only coupled freshwater hosing simulations in Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. Our reveal an approximately linear relationship between strength uptake reductions, constituting cycle feedback leads higher atmospheric CO 2 concentrations stronger warming. feedback, when incorporated integrated climate-economy model, additional several trillion US dollars raises SCC about 1%. The increase is similar magnitude, but opposite sign, effect Hemisphere cooling. While there potentially relevant channels, alone could thus flip consequences net society.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

Climate‐Dependency of Impact of Increased Carbon Dioxide on African Monsoon Rainfall: Insights From Model Simulations DOI Creative Commons
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Francesco S. R. Pausata

и другие.

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 52(9)

Опубликована: Май 5, 2025

Abstract Previous studies on future scenarios identified two key effects of increasing the African summer monsoon (ASM): Rising leads to an enhancement in moisture supply, favoring increase ASM precipitation (the thermodynamic effect). However, it also results a weakening mean atmospheric flow, thus facilitating dryness across region dynamic Therefore, ultimate change stems from balance both and effects. This study further examines impact rising rainfall, by taking into account various climate states. Our suggest that during warm interglacial periods has stronger influence factors than factors, resulting rainfall. In contrast, if increases under cold glacial backgrounds, its dominates reduction rainfall most region.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

Lessons from paleoclimates for recent and future climate change: opportunities and insights DOI Creative Commons
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi

и другие.

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 6

Опубликована: Дек. 11, 2024

Paleoclimate information has played an instrumental role in showing how fast climate can vary and large these changes be. It provided the first vivid demonstration of relationships between atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations surface air temperatures, as well striking representations change impacts possible feedbacks within system, such those associated with vegetation or ice sheet changes. Here, a short review recent advances paleoclimate studies is provided, objective what this on past climates environments bring to research current future climates. We advocate that (1) paleoclimatic paleoenvironmental be leveraged for narratives about change, particular at local regional levels, (2) data essential out-of-range tests models, since are also out range used calibrating (3) data, last millennia, taking multi-centennial multi-millennial variability into account when describing trends related anthropogenic forcings attributing signals, extreme rare events, (4) paleoclimates provide extremely valuable initializing slow components models. In addition, we show beneficial put context improve our knowledge key processes. They both benefit from contribute models based study

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0