Abstract.
We
review
how
the
international
modelling
community,
encompassing
Integrated
Assessment
models,
global
and
regional
Earth
system
climate
impact
have
worked
together
over
past
few
decades,
to
advance
understanding
of
change
its
impacts
on
society
environment,
support
policy.
then
recommend
a
number
priority
research
areas
for
coming
~6
years
(i.e.
until
~2030),
timescale
that
matches
newly
starting
activities
encompasses
IPCC
7th
Report
(AR7)
2nd
UNFCCC
Global
Stocktake.
Progress
in
these
will
significantly
our
increase
quality
utility
science
emphasize
need
continued
improvement
of,
ability
simulate,
coupled
change.
There
is
an
urgent
investigate
plausible
pathways
emission
scenarios
realize
Paris
Climate
Targets,
including
overshoot
1.5
°C
2
targets,
before
later
returning
them.
System
models
(ESMs)
be
capable
thoroughly
assessing
such
warming
overshoots,
particular,
efficacy
negative
CO2
actions
reducing
atmospheric
driving
cooling.
An
improved
assessment
long-term
consequences
stabilizing
at
or
above
pre-industrial
temperatures
also
required.
ESMs
run
CO2-emission
mode,
more
fully
represent
-
carbon
cycle
feedbacks.
Regional
downscaling
should
use
forcing
data
from
simulations,
so
projections
are
as
realistic
possible.
accurate
simulation
observed
record
remains
key
requirement
does
metrics,
Effective
Sensitivity.
For
adaptation,
guidance
potential
changes
extremes
modes
variability
develop
in,
demand.
Such
improvements
most
likely
realized
through
combination
increased
model
resolution
parameterizations.
propose
deeper
collaboration
across
efforts
targeting
process
realism
coupling,
enhanced
resolution,
parameterization
improvement,
data-driven
Machine
Learning
methods.
With
respect
sampling
future
uncertainty,
between
approaches
large
ensembles
those
focussed
statistical
emulation
attention
paid
High
Impact
Low
Likelihood
(HILL)
outcomes.
In
risk
exceeding
critical
tipping
points
during
overshoot.
comprehensive
change,
arising
directly
specific
mitigation
actions,
it
important
detailed,
disaggregated
information
Models
(IAMs)
used
generate
available
models.
Conversely,
methods
developed
incorporate
societal
responses
into
scenario
development.
Finally,
new
data,
scientific
advances,
proposed
this
article
not
possible
without
development
maintenance
robust,
globally
connected
infrastructure
ecosystem.
This
must
easily
accessible
useable
all
communities
world,
allowing
community
engaged
developing
delivering
knowledge
Communications Earth & Environment,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
5(1)
Опубликована: Фев. 13, 2024
Abstract
Since
2007,
unprecedented
marine
heatwave
events
are
occurring
over
the
Arctic
Ocean.
Here
we
identify
fraction
of
likelihood
heatwaves
magnitude
that
is
attributable
to
greenhouse
gas
forcing.
Results
reveal
primarily
triggered
by
an
abrupt
sea-ice
retreat,
which
coincides
with
maximum
downward
radiative
fluxes.
Up
82%
sea
surface
temperature
variability
shallow
marginal
seas,
where
prone
occur,
can
be
explained
net
accumulation
seasonal
heat
flux
in
ocean.
Event
attribution
analysis
demonstrates
103-day
long
2020
event
–
most
intense
(4
∘
C)
recorded
so
far
would
exceptionally
unlikely
absence
forcing
terms
both
intensity
and
duration.
Our
further
results
imply
if
emissions
continue
rise,
along
expansion
first-year
ice
extent,
moderate
will
very
likely
persistently
reoccur.
Communications Earth & Environment,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
5(1)
Опубликована: Авг. 27, 2024
2023
was
the
warmest
year
on
record,
influenced
by
multiple
warm
ocean
basins.
This
has
prompted
speculation
of
an
acceleration
in
surface
warming,
or
a
stronger
than
expected
influence
from
loss
aerosol
induced
cooling.
Here
we
use
recent
Green's
function-based
method
to
quantify
sea
temperature
patterns
global
anomaly,
and
compare
them
previous
record
years.
We
show
that
strong
deviation
warming
trends
is
consistent
with
previously
observed
influences,
regional
forcing.
indicates
internal
variability
contributor
exceptional
evolution,
combination
steady
anthropogenic
warming.
temperatures
fall
line
historical
trends,
anomalies
typical
El
Niño,
indicating
dominance
forcing,
according
analysis
for
isolating
contribution
various
Science,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
387(6734), С. 616 - 621
Опубликована: Фев. 6, 2025
Under
current
nationally
determined
contributions
(NDCs)
to
mitigate
greenhouse
gas
emissions,
global
warming
is
projected
reach
2.7°C
above
preindustrial
levels.
In
this
review,
we
show
that
at
such
a
level
of
warming,
the
Arctic
would
be
transformed
beyond
contemporary
recognition:
Virtually
every
day
year
have
air
temperatures
higher
than
extremes,
Ocean
essentially
ice
free
for
several
months
in
summer,
area
Greenland
reaches
melting
least
month
roughly
quadruple,
and
permafrost
half
what
it
was
times.
These
geophysical
changes
go
along
with
widespread
ecosystem
disruptions
infrastructure
damage,
which,
as
here,
could
substantially
reduced
by
increased
efforts
limit
warming.
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
16(1)
Опубликована: Янв. 16, 2025
The
most
disastrous
heatwaves
are
very
extreme
events
with
return
periods
of
hundreds
years,
but
traditionally,
climate
research
has
focussed
on
moderate
occurring
every
couple
years
or
even
several
times
within
a
year.
Here,
we
use
three
Earth
System
Model
large
ensembles
to
assess
whether
heat
respond
differently
global
warming
than
events.
We
find
that
the
signal
can
be
amplified
dampened
substantially
compared
extremes.
This
modulation
is
detectable
already
in
mid-century
projections.
In
mid-latitudes,
it
explained
by
changes
event
soil
moisture-temperature
coupling
during
hottest
day
depend
interplay
present
moisture
and
as
well
projected
precipitation
changes.
mechanism
robust
across
models,
albeit
spatial
uncertainties.
Our
findings
highly
relevant
for
risk
assessments
adaptation
planning.
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
15(1)
Опубликована: Окт. 24, 2024
The
understanding
of
recent
climate
extremes
and
the
characterization
risk
require
examining
these
within
a
historical
context.
However,
existing
datasets
observed
generally
exhibit
spatial
gaps
inaccuracies
due
to
inadequate
extrapolation.
This
problem
arises
from
traditional
statistical
methods
used
account
for
lack
measurements,
particularly
prevalent
before
mid-20th
century.
In
this
work,
we
use
artificial
intelligence
reconstruct
observations
European
(warm
cold
days
nights)
by
leveraging
Earth
system
model
data
CMIP6
through
transfer
learning.
Our
method
surpasses
conventional
techniques
diffusion
models,
showcasing
its
ability
past
extreme
events
reveal
trends
across
an
extensive
time
span
(1901-2018)
that
is
not
covered
most
reanalysis
datasets.
Providing
our
dataset
community
will
improve
extremes,
resulting
in
better
management
policies.
Abstract.
We
review
how
the
international
modelling
community,
encompassing
Integrated
Assessment
models,
global
and
regional
Earth
system
climate
impact
have
worked
together
over
past
few
decades,
to
advance
understanding
of
change
its
impacts
on
society
environment,
support
policy.
then
recommend
a
number
priority
research
areas
for
coming
~6
years
(i.e.
until
~2030),
timescale
that
matches
newly
starting
activities
encompasses
IPCC
7th
Report
(AR7)
2nd
UNFCCC
Global
Stocktake.
Progress
in
these
will
significantly
our
increase
quality
utility
science
emphasize
need
continued
improvement
of,
ability
simulate,
coupled
change.
There
is
an
urgent
investigate
plausible
pathways
emission
scenarios
realize
Paris
Climate
Targets,
including
overshoot
1.5
°C
2
targets,
before
later
returning
them.
System
models
(ESMs)
be
capable
thoroughly
assessing
such
warming
overshoots,
particular,
efficacy
negative
CO2
actions
reducing
atmospheric
driving
cooling.
An
improved
assessment
long-term
consequences
stabilizing
at
or
above
pre-industrial
temperatures
also
required.
ESMs
run
CO2-emission
mode,
more
fully
represent
-
carbon
cycle
feedbacks.
Regional
downscaling
should
use
forcing
data
from
simulations,
so
projections
are
as
realistic
possible.
accurate
simulation
observed
record
remains
key
requirement
does
metrics,
Effective
Sensitivity.
For
adaptation,
guidance
potential
changes
extremes
modes
variability
develop
in,
demand.
Such
improvements
most
likely
realized
through
combination
increased
model
resolution
parameterizations.
propose
deeper
collaboration
across
efforts
targeting
process
realism
coupling,
enhanced
resolution,
parameterization
improvement,
data-driven
Machine
Learning
methods.
With
respect
sampling
future
uncertainty,
between
approaches
large
ensembles
those
focussed
statistical
emulation
attention
paid
High
Impact
Low
Likelihood
(HILL)
outcomes.
In
risk
exceeding
critical
tipping
points
during
overshoot.
comprehensive
change,
arising
directly
specific
mitigation
actions,
it
important
detailed,
disaggregated
information
Models
(IAMs)
used
generate
available
models.
Conversely,
methods
developed
incorporate
societal
responses
into
scenario
development.
Finally,
new
data,
scientific
advances,
proposed
this
article
not
possible
without
development
maintenance
robust,
globally
connected
infrastructure
ecosystem.
This
must
easily
accessible
useable
all
communities
world,
allowing
community
engaged
developing
delivering
knowledge
Geophysical Research Letters,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
52(4)
Опубликована: Фев. 17, 2025
Abstract
The
German
Bight
coastline
is
regularly
affected
by
storm
surges
driven
extratropical
cyclones.
Decadal‐scale
predictions
of
local
would
foster
coastal
protection
and
decision
making
in
areas.
We
examine
the
prediction
skill
Max‐Planck‐Institute
Earth
System
Model
(MPI‐ESM)
decadal
system
for
three
different
surge
metrics
at
Cuxhaven
(Germany),
Esbjerg
(Denmark),
Delfzijl
(The
Netherlands).
To
avoid
dynamical
downscaling
from
coarse
model
output
to
heights,
we
use
machine
learning
train
a
neural
network
on
observed
heights
reanalyzed
fields
mean
sea‐level
pressure
(MSLP).
apply
this
MSLP
our
generate
heights.
falls
short
generating
skillful
high
water
event
durations
individual
lead
years
general,
but
windows
more
arise
deterministic
longer
multi‐year
times.
Atmosphere,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
16(6), С. 668 - 668
Опубликована: Июнь 1, 2025
Droughts
are
among
the
most
impactful
climate
extremes
in
Serbia,
with
significant
socio-economic
consequences,
particularly
agriculture.
The
summer
of
2012
was
one
extreme
drought
events
Serbia’s
history,
characterized
by
record-breaking
temperatures
and
prolonged
precipitation
deficits.
In
this
study,
we
investigate
meteorological
aspects
drought,
its
progression,
potential
recurrence
under
future
conditions.
Using
high-resolution
gridded
observational
dataset
(EOBS)
Single-Model
Initial-Condition
Large
Ensemble
(SMILE)
simulations
from
CMIP6—the
Max
Planck
Institute
Earth
System
Model
version
1.2
(MPI-ESM
1.2)
Grand
Ensemble,
analyze
deficits
assess
ability
MPI-GE
CMIP6
to
reproduce
observed
event.
We
identify
analogue
that
resemble
examine
their
occurrence
across
historical
scenarios
(SSP1-2.6,
SSP2-4.5,
SSP5-8.5).
Our
results
indicate
effectively
captures
deficit
comparable
become
more
frequent
severe
higher
greenhouse
gas
concentration
scenarios.
This
study
underscores
importance
a
large
ensemble
understanding
full
distribution
provides
Serbia-specific
insights,
which
is
valuable
for
regional
adaptation
planning.
