Automated Classification of Atmospheric Circulation Types for Compound Flood Risk Assessment: CMIP6 Model Analysis Utilising a Deep Learning Ensemble

Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 19, 2024

The simultaneous occurrence of high river discharges and storm surges represent a substantial hazard for many low-lying coastal areas. Potential future changes in the frequency or intensity such compound flood events is therefore utmost importance. To assess large consistent ensembles with surge hydrological models are needed that hardly available. Often linked to presence certain atmospheric circulation types. Future patterns can be directly inferred from available climate simulations. A frequently used classification types so-called "Großwetterlagen" by Hess Brezowsky. Here possible these were analysed using data 31 realisations CMIP6 simulations emission scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5. As subjective, deep learning ensemble automatic was developed applied. In winter, higher pattern Cyclonic Westerly towards 2100 could as robust result among all scenarios. this type potentially associated flooding some parts European coasts, points increasing risks future.

Язык: Английский

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Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 51(11)

Опубликована: Май 29, 2024

Abstract Decadal predictions focus regularly on the predictability of single values, like means or extremes. In this study we investigate prediction skill full underlying surface temperature distributions global and European scales. We initialized hindcast simulations Max Planck Institute Earth system model decadal compare distribution seasonal daily temperatures with estimates climatology uninitialized historical simulations. analysis show that has advantages in particular North Atlantic area allow so to make reliable for whole spectrum two 10 years ahead. also demonstrate capability climate predict depends season.

Язык: Английский

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Changing Windstorm Characteristics over the US Northeast in a Single Model Large Ensemble

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 19(11), С. 114045 - 114045

Опубликована: Сен. 26, 2024

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, influence climate change changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used generate projections of NE under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) attribute changes projected cover (LULC) change, externally forced internal variability. To reduce coarse grid cell resolution uncertainties surface roughness lengths, are identified simultaneous widespread exceedance local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U 99 ). Projected declines forest resulting reductions length SSP3-7.0 lead increases U derived windstorm intensity scale. regional LULC unprecedented historical context may not be realistic. After corrections applied remove speeds, regionally averaged exhibit for most single initial-condition (SMILE) members which broadly proportional radiative forcing global air temperature increase SSPs, with median value −0.15 ms −1 °C . While weak cyclones decline frequency NE, intense indices loss do not. Where present, trends positive, some MPI SMILE future that period.

Язык: Английский

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The Shifting Distribution of Arctic Daily Temperatures Under Global Warming

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12(11)

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2024

Abstract We examine daily surface air temperatures (SAT) in the Arctic under global warming, synthesizing changes mean temperature, variability, seasonality, and extremes based on five Earth system model large ensembles from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Our analysis shows that distribution of SAT substantially, with being distinguishable pre‐industrial levels 84% 97% days at 1.5 2°C respectively, virtually every day 3°C warming. This shift is primarily due to rapid rise average temperature resulting amplification exacerbated by a decrease variability approximately 8.5% per degree The are more pronounced cold seasons than summer, weakened shifted seasonal cycle SAT. Moreover, intensity frequency warm extreme events change varying degrees. hottest slightly more, while coldest 4–5 times making rare. Changes local vary regionally across most significant areas sea‐ice loss. findings underscore Arctic's amplified sensitivity warming emphasize urgent need limit mitigate impacts human natural systems.

Язык: Английский

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Drivers of summer Arctic sea-ice extent at interannual time scale in CMIP6 large ensembles revealed by information flow

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Окт. 16, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy

Earth System Dynamics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(5), С. 1319 - 1351

Опубликована: Окт. 18, 2024

Abstract. We review how the international modelling community, encompassing integrated assessment models, global and regional Earth system climate impact has worked together over past few decades to advance understanding of change its impacts on society environment thereby support policy. go recommend a number priority research areas for coming decade, timescale that encompasses newly starting activities, as well IPCC Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) second UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these will significantly our impacts, increasing quality utility science emphasize need continued improvement of, ability simulate, coupled change. There is an urgent investigate plausible pathways emission scenarios realize Paris targets – example, overshoot 1.5 or 2 °C warming, before returning levels at some later date. models be capable thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots particular, efficacy mitigation measures, negative CO2 emissions, reducing atmospheric driving cooling. An improved long-term consequences stabilizing above pre-industrial temperatures also required. run CO2-emission mode more fully represent climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks and, wherever possible, interactively simulate other key phenomena risk rapid during overshoot. Regional downscaling should use forcing data from simulations, so projections cover complete range potential responses accurate simulation observed, historical record remains fundamental requirement does metrics, effective sensitivity transient response cumulative carbon emissions. For adaptation, demand guidance changes extremes modes variability develop within. Such improvements most likely realized through combination increased model resolution, parameterizations, enhanced representation important processes, combined with targeted new artificial intelligence (AI) machine learning (ML) techniques. propose deeper collaboration across efforts decade. With respect sampling future uncertainty, between approaches large ensembles those focussed statistical emulation focus high-impact–low-likelihood (HILL) outcomes exceeding critical tipping points arising this. comprehensive change, including directly result actions, it spatially detailed, disaggregated information used generate available models. Conversely, there methods enable societal projected incorporated into scenario development. The data, scientific advances proposed this article not possible without development maintenance robust, globally connected infrastructure ecosystem. This must easily accessible useable by communities world, allowing community engaged developing delivering knowledge

Язык: Английский

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Reply on RC1

Опубликована: Июнь 7, 2024

Abstract. We review how the international modelling community, encompassing Integrated Assessment models, global and regional Earth system climate impact have worked together over past few decades, to advance understanding of change its impacts on society environment, support policy. then recommend a number priority research areas for coming ~6 years (i.e. until ~2030), timescale that matches newly starting activities encompasses IPCC 7th Report (AR7) 2nd UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these will significantly our increase quality utility science emphasize need continued improvement of, ability simulate, coupled change. There is an urgent investigate plausible pathways emission scenarios realize Paris Climate Targets, including overshoot 1.5 °C 2 targets, before later returning them. System models (ESMs) be capable thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots, particular, efficacy negative CO₂ actions reducing atmospheric driving cooling. An improved assessment long-term consequences stabilizing at or above pre-industrial temperatures also required. ESMs run CO₂-emission mode, more fully represent - carbon cycle feedbacks. Regional downscaling should use forcing data from simulations, so projections are as realistic possible. accurate simulation observed record remains key requirement does metrics, Effective Sensitivity. For adaptation, guidance potential changes extremes modes variability develop in, demand. Such improvements most likely realized through combination increased model resolution parameterizations. propose deeper collaboration across efforts targeting process realism coupling, enhanced resolution, parameterization improvement, data-driven Machine Learning methods. With respect sampling future uncertainty, between approaches large ensembles those focussed statistical emulation attention paid High Impact Low Likelihood (HILL) outcomes. In risk exceeding critical tipping points during overshoot. comprehensive change, arising directly specific mitigation actions, it important detailed, disaggregated information Models (IAMs) used generate available models. Conversely, methods developed incorporate societal responses into scenario development. Finally, new data, scientific advances, proposed this article not possible without development maintenance robust, globally connected infrastructure ecosystem. This must easily accessible useable all communities world, allowing community engaged developing delivering knowledge

Язык: Английский

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Reply on RC2

Опубликована: Июнь 7, 2024

Abstract. We review how the international modelling community, encompassing Integrated Assessment models, global and regional Earth system climate impact have worked together over past few decades, to advance understanding of change its impacts on society environment, support policy. then recommend a number priority research areas for coming ~6 years (i.e. until ~2030), timescale that matches newly starting activities encompasses IPCC 7th Report (AR7) 2nd UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these will significantly our increase quality utility science emphasize need continued improvement of, ability simulate, coupled change. There is an urgent investigate plausible pathways emission scenarios realize Paris Climate Targets, including overshoot 1.5 °C 2 targets, before later returning them. System models (ESMs) be capable thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots, particular, efficacy negative CO₂ actions reducing atmospheric driving cooling. An improved assessment long-term consequences stabilizing at or above pre-industrial temperatures also required. ESMs run CO₂-emission mode, more fully represent - carbon cycle feedbacks. Regional downscaling should use forcing data from simulations, so projections are as realistic possible. accurate simulation observed record remains key requirement does metrics, Effective Sensitivity. For adaptation, guidance potential changes extremes modes variability develop in, demand. Such improvements most likely realized through combination increased model resolution parameterizations. propose deeper collaboration across efforts targeting process realism coupling, enhanced resolution, parameterization improvement, data-driven Machine Learning methods. With respect sampling future uncertainty, between approaches large ensembles those focussed statistical emulation attention paid High Impact Low Likelihood (HILL) outcomes. In risk exceeding critical tipping points during overshoot. comprehensive change, arising directly specific mitigation actions, it important detailed, disaggregated information Models (IAMs) used generate available models. Conversely, methods developed incorporate societal responses into scenario development. Finally, new data, scientific advances, proposed this article not possible without development maintenance robust, globally connected infrastructure ecosystem. This must easily accessible useable all communities world, allowing community engaged developing delivering knowledge

Язык: Английский

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Reply on RC1

Опубликована: Июнь 7, 2024

Abstract. We review how the international modelling community, encompassing Integrated Assessment models, global and regional Earth system climate impact have worked together over past few decades, to advance understanding of change its impacts on society environment, support policy. then recommend a number priority research areas for coming ~6 years (i.e. until ~2030), timescale that matches newly starting activities encompasses IPCC 7th Report (AR7) 2nd UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these will significantly our increase quality utility science emphasize need continued improvement of, ability simulate, coupled change. There is an urgent investigate plausible pathways emission scenarios realize Paris Climate Targets, including overshoot 1.5 °C 2 targets, before later returning them. System models (ESMs) be capable thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots, particular, efficacy negative CO₂ actions reducing atmospheric driving cooling. An improved assessment long-term consequences stabilizing at or above pre-industrial temperatures also required. ESMs run CO₂-emission mode, more fully represent - carbon cycle feedbacks. Regional downscaling should use forcing data from simulations, so projections are as realistic possible. accurate simulation observed record remains key requirement does metrics, Effective Sensitivity. For adaptation, guidance potential changes extremes modes variability develop in, demand. Such improvements most likely realized through combination increased model resolution parameterizations. propose deeper collaboration across efforts targeting process realism coupling, enhanced resolution, parameterization improvement, data-driven Machine Learning methods. With respect sampling future uncertainty, between approaches large ensembles those focussed statistical emulation attention paid High Impact Low Likelihood (HILL) outcomes. In risk exceeding critical tipping points during overshoot. comprehensive change, arising directly specific mitigation actions, it important detailed, disaggregated information Models (IAMs) used generate available models. Conversely, methods developed incorporate societal responses into scenario development. Finally, new data, scientific advances, proposed this article not possible without development maintenance robust, globally connected infrastructure ecosystem. This must easily accessible useable all communities world, allowing community engaged developing delivering knowledge

Язык: Английский

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Large-ensemble assessment of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex morphology and disruptions

Weather and Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5(3), С. 895 - 912

Опубликована: Июль 10, 2024

Abstract. The stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) comprises strong westerly winds during winter in each hemisphere. Despite ample knowledge on the SPV's high variability and its frequent disruptions by sudden warmings (SSWs) Northern Hemisphere (NH), questions how well current climate models can simulate these dynamics remain open. Specifically accuracy reproducing SPV morphology differentiation between split displacement SSW events are crucial to assess this regard. In study, we evaluate capability of NH comparing large ensembles historical simulations ERA5 reanalysis data. For this, analyze geometric-based diagnostics at three pressure levels that describe morphology. Our analysis reveals no model exactly reproduces all altitudes. Concerning as stretching (aspect ratio) location (centroid latitude) parameters, most biased some extent, but strongest deviations be found for vortex-splitting parameter (excess kurtosis). Moreover, underestimate strength. Assessing reliability distinguishing SSWs subdivided into events, find differences ensembles. general, displacements represented better than splits simulation ensembles, high-top with finer vertical resolution perform better. A good performance representing morphological does not necessarily imply therefore a simulating splits. biases their representation is needed improve credibility projections, example, giving stronger weightings performing models.

Язык: Английский

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