Modelling the impact of climate change on runoff and sediment yield in Mediterranean basins: the Carapelle case study (Apulia, Italy) DOI Creative Commons
Ossama M. M. Abdelwahab, Giovanni Francesco Ricci, Francesco Gentile

и другие.

Frontiers in Water, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 7

Опубликована: Март 13, 2025

Introduction This study analyzes the impact of climate change on streamflow and sediment yield in Carapelle basin, a Mediterranean watershed located Apulia Region Italy. Methods Three model projections (CMCC, MPI, EC-EARTH) under CMIP6 SSP2-4.5 scenario were bias-corrected evaluated using statistical measures to ensure enhanced fit with observed data. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was implemented simulate hydrology yield. calibrated validated measured load data from 2004–2011, demonstrating satisfactory performance for both parameters. Baseline conditions (2000–2020) compared future (2030–2050). Results Climate 2030-2050 indicated temperature increases up 1.3°C average annual rainfall decreases 38% baseline. These changes resulted reduced water across all models. CMCC projected highest reduction mean flow (67%), smaller reductions MPI (35%) EC-EARTH (7%). Correspondingly, 52.8% (CMCC), 41.7% (MPI), 18.1% (EC-EARTH). Despite these overall reductions, spatial analysis revealed that soil erosion remained critical (sediment >10 t ha −1 ) certain areas, particularly steep slopes wheat cultivation. Discussion Integrating considerations into management strategies is essential sustaining river basins conditions. Adaptation such as BMPs NBSs should be reduce mitigate impacts.

Язык: Английский

Research on Water Resource Carrying Capacity Assessment and Water Quality Forecasting Based on Feature Selection with CNN-BiLSTM-Attention Model of the Min River Basin DOI Open Access

Yanglan Xiao,

Huirou Shen,

Li‐Qian You

и другие.

Water, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 17(6), С. 824 - 824

Опубликована: Март 13, 2025

To achieve a more accurate assessment of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC), the indicators resources, social and ecological environment were selected to construct WRCC system on basis combinatorial assignment method with advantages. Moreover, incorporation key quality influences into predictions facilitated performance predictive models. Adaptive Lasso Regression was used select factors affecting quality, whereas CatBoost algorithm ranked importance by in prediction model. The Convolutional Neural Network-Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory-Attention (CNN-BiLSTM-Attention) model forecast WQI. research results propose new evaluation method. show that average barrier levels for socio-economic development, 34.97%, 34.93%, 30.10%, respectively. Compared other layers WRCC, obstacle degree layer has always been lower. total sewage treatment, greening coverage built-up areas, per capita green space parks main within Min River Basin. Based factor screening, it can be seen dissolved oxygen is positively correlated watershed, while influencing are negatively Total nitrogen had greatest impact conditions regression coefficient −1.7532. From comparison results, known hybrid make MAE value 45% monitoring points reach minimum, RMSE 35% minimum. percentages remaining models reached lowest values 15% 20% 30%, models, MSE relatively small, which conducive predicting

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

Modelling the impact of climate change on runoff and sediment yield in Mediterranean basins: the Carapelle case study (Apulia, Italy) DOI Creative Commons
Ossama M. M. Abdelwahab, Giovanni Francesco Ricci, Francesco Gentile

и другие.

Frontiers in Water, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 7

Опубликована: Март 13, 2025

Introduction This study analyzes the impact of climate change on streamflow and sediment yield in Carapelle basin, a Mediterranean watershed located Apulia Region Italy. Methods Three model projections (CMCC, MPI, EC-EARTH) under CMIP6 SSP2-4.5 scenario were bias-corrected evaluated using statistical measures to ensure enhanced fit with observed data. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was implemented simulate hydrology yield. calibrated validated measured load data from 2004–2011, demonstrating satisfactory performance for both parameters. Baseline conditions (2000–2020) compared future (2030–2050). Results Climate 2030-2050 indicated temperature increases up 1.3°C average annual rainfall decreases 38% baseline. These changes resulted reduced water across all models. CMCC projected highest reduction mean flow (67%), smaller reductions MPI (35%) EC-EARTH (7%). Correspondingly, 52.8% (CMCC), 41.7% (MPI), 18.1% (EC-EARTH). Despite these overall reductions, spatial analysis revealed that soil erosion remained critical (sediment >10 t ha −1 ) certain areas, particularly steep slopes wheat cultivation. Discussion Integrating considerations into management strategies is essential sustaining river basins conditions. Adaptation such as BMPs NBSs should be reduce mitigate impacts.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0