Impacts of climate and land use changes on the water quality of a small Mediterranean catchment with intensive viticulture

Environmental Pollution, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 224, С. 454 - 465

Опубликована: Фев. 24, 2017

Язык: Английский

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The INtegrated CAtchment model of phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P): Description and demonstration of new model structure and equations

Environmental Modelling & Software, Год журнала: 2016, Номер 83, С. 356 - 386

Опубликована: Июль 21, 2016

Язык: Английский

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Climatic sensitivity of seasonal ice-cover, water temperature and biogeochemical cycling in Lake 239 of the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA), Ontario, Canada

Ecological Modelling, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 489, С. 110621 - 110621

Опубликована: Янв. 13, 2024

Regional climate plays an important role on in-lake physical and biogeochemical processes determines the state of water quality ecology lakes. This paper presents result a one-dimensional numerical modelling lake ice cover, temperature, as well nutrient phytoplankton dynamics in Lake 239 (Rawson Lake) located Experimental Lakes Area (ELA), Ontario, Canada. Using observed meteorological inflow/outflow data, Multi-year simulation model (MyLake) was setup to replicate measured ice-cover, dissolved organic carbon, particulate phosphorus, chlorophyll-a concentrations over entire depth lake. The sensitivity changes climatic drivers, specifically surface air temperature wind speed, examined by incrementally changing input forcing for speed mapping resulting simulated outputs. results show that are generally sensitive they temperature. Simulated variables corresponding projected Global Climate Models (GCMs) under RCP4.5 RCP8.5 emission scenarios reveal general increase decrease thickness cover duration climate. While increases at all depths, shallow epilimnion layer is more than deeper hypolimnion layer, reaching mean annual change value +3.7 °C RCP 8.5 2090s compared 1990s baseline period. reaches −20 cm scenario, ice-cover -47 days. These shown seasonal cycling with concentration during covered season December May up +0.15 mg/m3 followed open June November −0.15

Язык: Английский

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Predicting Lake Quality for the Next Generation: Impacts of Catchment Management and Climatic Factors in a Probabilistic Model Framework

Water, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 11(9), С. 1767 - 1767

Опубликована: Авг. 24, 2019

Lake ecosystems across the world are under combined pressures of eutrophication and climate change, which increase risk harmful cyanobacteria blooms, reduced ecological status, degraded ecosystem services. In Europe, third cycle river basin management plans (2021–2027) according to Water Framework Directive must take into account potential impacts change on water quality, including effects relevant biological indicators. Here, we applied a Bayesian network as meta-model for linking future land-use scenarios time horizon 2050–2070, via process-based catchment lake models, abundance status eutrophic lake. Building upon previous applications model, new version was developed include climatic variables such wind speed. Explorative showed that combination low high temperature gave most synergistic levels (Chl-a concentration). Considering target good however, climate-related promotion blooms contributed degrading at intermediate eutrophication. Future developments this model will aim strengthen link between responses, make also useful seasonal forecasting.

Язык: Английский

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Coupling Water Column and Sediment Biogeochemical Dynamics: Modeling Internal Phosphorus Loading, Climate Change Responses, and Mitigation Measures in Lake Vansjø, Norway

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 124(12), С. 3847 - 3866

Опубликована: Ноя. 28, 2019

Abstract We expanded the existing one‐dimensional MyLake model by incorporating a vertically resolved sediment diagenesis module and developing reaction network that seamlessly couples water column biogeochemistry. The application of MyLake‐Sediment to boreal Lake Vansjø illustrates model's ability reproduce daily quality variables predict sediment‐water exchange fluxes over long historical period. In prognostic scenarios, we assessed importance processes effects various climatic anthropogenic drivers on lake's biogeochemistry phytoplankton dynamics. First, was used simulate potential impacts increasing air temperature algal growth quality. Second, key role ice cover in controlling mixing biogeochemical cycles analyzed series scenarios included fully ice‐free end‐member. Third, another end‐member scenario P loading from watershed lake abruptly halted. results suggest remobilization legacy stored bottom sediments could sustain primary productivity time scale several centuries. Finally, while majority management practices reduce excessive lakes focus reducing external loads, other efforts rely addition reactive materials sequester sediment. Therefore, investigated effectiveness ferric iron additions decreasing dissolved phosphate efflux and, consequently, limit Vansjø.

Язык: Английский

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Warming combined with experimental eutrophication intensifies lake phytoplankton blooms

Limnology and Oceanography, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 67(1), С. 147 - 158

Опубликована: Ноя. 24, 2021

Abstract Phytoplankton blooms are a global water quality issue, and successful management depends on understanding their responses to multiple interacting drivers, including nutrient loading climate change. Here, we examine long‐term dataset from Lake 227, site subject fertilization experiment (1969–present) with changing nitrogen:phosphorus (N:P) ratios. We applied process‐oriented model, MyLake, updated the model structure uptake kinetics that incorporated shifting N:P competition among phytoplankton functional groups. also tested different temperature P‐loading scenarios effects of change blooms. The successfully reproduced lake physics over 48 yr timing, overall magnitude, community (diazotrophs vs. non‐diazotrophs) Intra‐ interannual variability was captured more accurately for P‐only period than high low periods, highlighting difficulty modeling complex even in well‐studied systems. A scenario run which removed climate‐driven trends, allowing us disentangle concurrent drivers Results showed increases spring led earlier larger under alone. These findings suggest efforts should incorporate addition reductions, intensifying and/or expanding monitoring periods incorporating into uncertainty estimates around future conditions.

Язык: Английский

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Seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and algal bloom risk using a continuous Gaussian Bayesian network

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 26(12), С. 3103 - 3124

Опубликована: Июнь 20, 2022

Abstract. Freshwater management is challenging, and advance warning that poor water quality was likely, a season ahead, could allow for preventative measures to be put in place. To this end, we developed Bayesian network (BN) seasonal lake prediction. BNs have become popular recent years, but the vast majority are discrete. Here, Gaussian (GBN), simple class of continuous BN. The aim forecast, spring, mean total phosphorus (TP) chlorophyll (chl a) concentration, colour, maximum cyanobacteria biovolume upcoming growing (May–October) Vansjø, shallow nutrient-rich southeastern Norway. develop model, first identified controls on interannual variability seasonally aggregated quality. These variables were then included GBN, conditional probability densities fit using observations (≤39 years). GBN predictions had R2 values 0.37 0.75 (colour) classification errors 32 % 17 (cyanobacteria). For all including weather did not improve predictive performance (assessed through cross-validation). Overall, found approach well suited forecasting. It straightforward produce probabilistic predictions, exceeding management-relevant thresholds. sensibly parameterised only observed data, despite small dataset. Developing comparable discrete BN much more subjective time-consuming. Although low high temporal autocorrelation study meant performed slightly better than naïve forecast (where forecasted value simply previous season), believe forecasting presented here particularly useful areas with higher sensitivity catchment nutrient delivery climate at shorter (daily or monthly) timescales. Despite parametric constraints GBNs, their simplicity, together relative accessibility software handling, means they good choice development variables.

Язык: Английский

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Modeling response of water quality parameters to land-use and climate change in a temperate, mesotrophic lake

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 713, С. 136549 - 136549

Опубликована: Янв. 7, 2020

Язык: Английский

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Impact of Urban Stormwater Runoff on Cyanobacteria Dynamics in A Tropical Urban Lake

Water, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 11(5), С. 946 - 946

Опубликована: Май 5, 2019

Worldwide, eutrophication and cyanobacteria blooms in lakes reservoirs are a great concern for water resources management. Coupling catchment hydrological model lake has been strategy to assess the impact of land use, agricultural practices climate change on quality. However, research mainly focused large lakes, while urban their catchments, especially tropical regions, still poorly studied despite wide range ecosystem services they provide. An integrated modelling approach coupling Storm Water Management Model SWMM ecological DYRESM-CAEDYM is proposed Lake Pampulha (Brazil). Scenarios increased imperviousness reduction load nutrients total suspended solids (TSS) dry weather inflow were simulated. Runoff quality simulations presented fair performance TSS ammonium (NH4+) dynamics phosphorus (TP) nitrate (NO3−) captured. Phytoplankton simulated with good accuracy (Normalized Mean Absolute Error, NMAE = 0.24 r 0.89 calibration period; 0.55 0.54 validation period). The general trends growth, decline magnitude phytoplankton biomass well represented most time. Scenario suggest that TP will decrease delay its peaks as consequence orthophosphate (PO43−) concentration surface layers. even decreasing into by half would not be sufficient achieve objective maximum 60 µg chla L−1. Increased raise runoff volume, TSS, NO3− loads promote greater biomass, beginning wet season, because additional nutrient input from runoff. Recovering require improvement sanitation system. also more sustainable nature-based solutions drainage order reduce non-point pollution through infiltration retention stormwater enhance natural processes, such chemical sorption, biodegradation phytoremediation. here can applied other taking advantage existing knowledge Pampulha.

Язык: Английский

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How well can we model stream phosphorus concentrations in agricultural catchments?

Environmental Modelling & Software, Год журнала: 2014, Номер 64, С. 31 - 46

Опубликована: Ноя. 28, 2014

Язык: Английский

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